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Post by silkyice on Feb 16, 2024 22:29:50 GMT -6
I always have. Every week for the past 25 years I have practiced the "fair catch free kick" once a week just in case the 0.01% chance I would ever need it, we had repped it and the kids could execute. 2022 we won a game by kicking the ball thru the uprights off a tee with our KO team on the field and the opponent couldn't do anything but watch it go in and win the game by 1. My decision to kick deep when we scored with a minute left and all 3 timeouts after we missed a 2-pt conversion to tie was questioned (loudly) by pretty much every parent in our stands behind me, and even some of my coaches on my own staff. Then NOT using a timeout after 2nd down and letting the clock run down to 20 seconds was HIGHLY & LOUDLY questioned by EVERYONE in the stadium. Their players were celebrating and talking $h!t to our kids and pointing to the clock as it ticked down. Then we used TO#2 after 3rd down. I walked out to talk to the officials and told them we are gonna send 3 guys back and fair catch the ball on the punt. Then I would be choosing to use my free-kick. Once our KO team went out on the field, the stadium was going CRAZY. Their kids were trying to lineup on "defense" while my kicker was setting up the tee and they were talking a lot to him, so I used my final timeout to go out and talk to the kicker and make sure he knew he was the hero or I was the idiot for trying all this craziness. If he had missed, I would have taken a lot of heat... but it wouldn't change the fact that I chose a sequence of decisions that I felt gave my team the best odds of winning. No guarantees, which is what everyone wants. If you tell me before he kicks it that it is 100% he makes it, that takes all the risk out of the decision. I am going to need a little more info on this exact situation. How much time was left on the clock when you decided to kick deep? Can't quite understand why you let the run down to 20 seconds while you had an extra timeout. Was the advantage that you were saving the timeout so you could talk to your kicker or to let more time run off so that the kick was the last play of the game? Where did they punt from? I have always envisioned this working when the team was punting from inside their 5. From the 10, a 40 yard punt, you fair catch, you now need a 60 yard fg to win. But if punting from inside their 5 with the punter in the endzone changes things. Not only is the risk of block greater, a hurried punt and they might just get a 30 yard punt. Ball on the 35. 45 yard FG to win. Also, a rugby punt team could really screw this up. |
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Post by cqmiller on Feb 17, 2024 9:03:26 GMT -6
That is why I need the percentages or I can't say STATISTICALLY which one is technically an advantage. If the 50.14% is accurate in the simulations mentioned above, then you gain 0.14% advantage in the entirety of your life. If it happens a million times in your life, you win 501400 and lose 498600. So 2800 wins more out of a million. Technically that means you should take the ball 2nd.
I'm not saying you should kick or receive because it seems to be about as 50/50 as it gets. I would assume that 0.14% is probably the odds that the defense scores a TD or gets a Safety when the 1st team gets the ball. All other scenarios are probably split pretty much down the middle.
Not gonna hammer a guy for kicking or receiving with that decision. Just like I won't crucify Lions HC for going for it on 4th and short. Statistically if you convert you give yourself a HUGE chance of winning, but percentages are percentages for a reason... there is risk you don't get it.
I love the analyzing of the options and that is why I think the 50.14 number thrown out by the computer simulation assumes both teams are equally matched. The true percentages move based on talent, injuries, etc... Fun little though-experiment that I'm sure all 32 NFL teams are going through the process of figuring out what they will do in the future.
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Post by coachd5085 on Feb 17, 2024 9:10:41 GMT -6
That is why I need the percentages or I can't say STATISTICALLY which one is technically an advantage. If the 50.14% is accurate in the simulations mentioned above, then you gain 0.14% advantage in the entirety of your life. If it happens a million times in your life, you win 501400 and lose 498600. So 2800 wins more out of a million. Technically that means you should take the ball 2nd. I'm not saying you should kick or receive because it seems to be about as 50/50 as it gets. I would assume that 0.14% is probably the odds that the defense scores a TD or gets a Safety when the 1st team gets the ball. All other scenarios are probably split pretty much down the middle. Not gonna hammer a guy for kicking or receiving with that decision. Just like I won't crucify Lions HC for going for it on 4th and short. Statistically if you convert you give yourself a HUGE chance of winning, but percentages are percentages for a reason... there is risk you don't get it. I love the analyzing of the options and that is why I think the 50.14 number thrown out by the computer simulation assumes both teams are equally matched. The true percentages move based on talent, injuries, etc... Fun little though-experiment that I'm sure all 32 NFL teams are going through the process of figuring out what they will do in the future. Just for clarity, I think you misread the info on those stats. If those stats are correct, they were saying that TAKING THE BALL FIRST results in winning 50.29% of the time - which drops to 50.14% of the time if the team getting the ball second has already decided that they will be going for 2pt conversion if they score a TD to tie the game. So Technically that means you should take the ball 1st. But I agree, in this case the math (which I have not seen, so I can not support or refute it) seems fairly even, so other factors such as "my defense just got gashed" or "I feel we have confidence and momentum" etc. should probably factor in more than analytics. As has often been stated, the "problem" with analytic analysis is that it does not factor in differences such as THIS play is more important than others, or THIS game is "more important" than others. |
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Post by cqmiller on Feb 17, 2024 9:28:23 GMT -6
I always have. Every week for the past 25 years I have practiced the "fair catch free kick" once a week just in case the 0.01% chance I would ever need it, we had repped it and the kids could execute. 2022 we won a game by kicking the ball thru the uprights off a tee with our KO team on the field and the opponent couldn't do anything but watch it go in and win the game by 1. My decision to kick deep when we scored with a minute left and all 3 timeouts after we missed a 2-pt conversion to tie was questioned (loudly) by pretty much every parent in our stands behind me, and even some of my coaches on my own staff. Then NOT using a timeout after 2nd down and letting the clock run down to 20 seconds was HIGHLY & LOUDLY questioned by EVERYONE in the stadium. Their players were celebrating and talking $h!t to our kids and pointing to the clock as it ticked down. Then we used TO#2 after 3rd down. I walked out to talk to the officials and told them we are gonna send 3 guys back and fair catch the ball on the punt. Then I would be choosing to use my free-kick. Once our KO team went out on the field, the stadium was going CRAZY. Their kids were trying to lineup on "defense" while my kicker was setting up the tee and they were talking a lot to him, so I used my final timeout to go out and talk to the kicker and make sure he knew he was the hero or I was the idiot for trying all this craziness. If he had missed, I would have taken a lot of heat... but it wouldn't change the fact that I chose a sequence of decisions that I felt gave my team the best odds of winning. No guarantees, which is what everyone wants. If you tell me before he kicks it that it is 100% he makes it, that takes all the risk out of the decision. I am going to need a little more info on this exact situation. How much time was left on the clock when you decided to kick deep? Can't quite understand why you let the run down to 20 seconds while you had an extra timeout. Was the advantage that you were saving the timeout so you could talk to your kicker or to let more time run off so that the kick was the last play of the game? Where did they punt from? I have always envisioned this working when the team was punting from inside their 5. From the 10, a 40 yard punt, you fair catch, you now need a 60 yard fg to win. But if punting from inside their 5 with the punter in the endzone changes things. Not only is the risk of block greater, a hurried punt and they might just get a 30 yard punt. Ball on the 35. 45 yard FG to win. Also, a rugby punt team could really screw this up. A minute and a half left on the clock when we score and miss the 2pt conversion. Punter kicked the ball on average between 30 and 35 yards from the line of scrimmage in all our scouting and was punting exactly that during the course of the game. They are a shield punt team that has not once rugby kicked on any film we've seen or anytime during the game. Our FG/PAT team was not great. We had had one or two blocked throughout the year and running them out on the field in a clock-ticking situation to try and kick a game-winner as time expires was something I didn't want to risk. I wanted a TO so I could walk out there and line them up myself prior to the kick to give us the best chances if we were having to kick a field goal to try and win. When we kicked deep, they got the ball on about the 12 yard line because by the time they scrambled back and recovered it, we were able to pin them back pretty deep. On 1st down, they ran up the middle and we stopped them at about the 10.5 or 11. We called TO. About 1:25 left. 2nd Down, they ran zone-read and we forced the pull and the QB went laterally toward the sideline and gave up another yard or two and we tackled him in-bounds (barely) with about 1:25 left. Now they are 3rd and 12 from the -9. I'm thinking he kicks it to about the 45 and I'm not sure if I want to do the FCFC yet. That is a 55 yarder, which I still would rather take my chance with my kicker kicking a 55 yarder off a tee than trying to gain another 5-10 yards and kicking a 45 yarder when they can rush the kick and block it. On a field goal, we still need to snap, catch, hold, and kick without the defense blocking it. On a free-kick, the kick is the only variable. I hold onto the TO just in case the punt is a boomer and I have to try and get back to a makeable field goal. After I don't call the TO and the clock runs down to 0:25 and because I don't call a TO and they are surprised I didn't, they (I think) decide the game is over and have their QB get the ball and roll to the side and try to burn as much time as possible. My ILB sees the QB heading to the middle of the field and scrapes out and sacks him on the 5 yard line with 15-16 seconds left. I call timeout and ask the official on our sideline, "you ever seen fair-catch-free-kick?", and he answers "no". I tell him I want to talk to the white-hat and let him know what we are doing. We send 3 guys back (just in case they try to do anything weird with it) they are supposed to call fair catch as soon as it is kicked and they have been told they have to dive, jump, tip, or DO WHATEVER IT TAKES to catch the ball before it hits the ground. I have told all the officials that we are fair-catching the kick no matter what and that we are gonna win on a FCFC, to which the white-hat says, "get outta here". We lineup with our 8 guys in the box and our 3 deep with our 2 guys coming off the edge and 4 guys up the middle to force the kick to happen on-time so they can't just run around and eat the clock. Only a 2-pt lead, so taking safety isn't an option for them unless they want to go to OT so they have to kick it. Punter kicks it down the middle and we catch it on the 37 yard line, so he kicked it 32 yards and we are setup with a 47 yard kick off a tee with no rush for the win. 12 seconds on the clock. We kick it, it goes in, and we win on a play that nobody had seen in the state in a long time. |
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Post by cqmiller on Feb 17, 2024 9:30:16 GMT -6
One of the analytics guys on the internet said that they had simulated the OT rules last year when the new rule was first announced. Simulated 130,000 times the team going second won 50.14% of the time. I thought one was for normal OT rules and this one I was referencing says team going 2nd wins 50.14% |
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Post by silkyice on Feb 17, 2024 12:22:47 GMT -6
A minute and a half left on the clock when we score and miss the 2pt conversion. Punter kicked the ball on average between 30 and 35 yards from the line of scrimmage in all our scouting and was punting exactly that during the course of the game. They are a shield punt team that has not once rugby kicked on any film we've seen or anytime during the game. Our FG/PAT team was not great. We had had one or two blocked throughout the year and running them out on the field in a clock-ticking situation to try and kick a game-winner as time expires was something I didn't want to risk. I wanted a TO so I could walk out there and line them up myself prior to the kick to give us the best chances if we were having to kick a field goal to try and win. When we kicked deep, they got the ball on about the 12 yard line because by the time they scrambled back and recovered it, we were able to pin them back pretty deep. On 1st down, they ran up the middle and we stopped them at about the 10.5 or 11. We called TO. About 1:25 left. 2nd Down, they ran zone-read and we forced the pull and the QB went laterally toward the sideline and gave up another yard or two and we tackled him in-bounds (barely) with about 1:25 left. Now they are 3rd and 12 from the -9. I'm thinking he kicks it to about the 45 and I'm not sure if I want to do the FCFC yet. That is a 55 yarder, which I still would rather take my chance with my kicker kicking a 55 yarder off a tee than trying to gain another 5-10 yards and kicking a 45 yarder when they can rush the kick and block it. On a field goal, we still need to snap, catch, hold, and kick without the defense blocking it. On a free-kick, the kick is the only variable. I hold onto the TO just in case the punt is a boomer and I have to try and get back to a makeable field goal. After I don't call the TO and the clock runs down to 0:25 and because I don't call a TO and they are surprised I didn't, they (I think) decide the game is over and have their QB get the ball and roll to the side and try to burn as much time as possible. My ILB sees the QB heading to the middle of the field and scrapes out and sacks him on the 5 yard line with 15-16 seconds left. I call timeout and ask the official on our sideline, "you ever seen fair-catch-free-kick?", and he answers "no". I tell him I want to talk to the white-hat and let him know what we are doing. We send 3 guys back (just in case they try to do anything weird with it) they are supposed to call fair catch as soon as it is kicked and they have been told they have to dive, jump, tip, or DO WHATEVER IT TAKES to catch the ball before it hits the ground. I have told all the officials that we are fair-catching the kick no matter what and that we are gonna win on a FCFC, to which the white-hat says, "get outta here". We lineup with our 8 guys in the box and our 3 deep with our 2 guys coming off the edge and 4 guys up the middle to force the kick to happen on-time so they can't just run around and eat the clock. Only a 2-pt lead, so taking safety isn't an option for them unless they want to go to OT so they have to kick it. Punter kicks it down the middle and we catch it on the 37 yard line, so he kicked it 32 yards and we are setup with a 47 yard kick off a tee with no rush for the win. 12 seconds on the clock. We kick it, it goes in, and we win on a play that nobody had seen in the state in a long time. A couple of questions. 1) Would you have kicked deep if they had someone deep? Most teams usually have 1 person back there to prevent that (especially with so much left on the clock) and also prevent a race for the ball and help clean things up. 2) What happens if they don't royally f up the 3rd down play? You have just left yourself one option when you let 40 seconds run off the clock. I think kicking deep is completely fine here since you had 3 timeouts. But I do find it odd that your reasoning when you did that was to win on a free kick. If they just get the ball to the 20 on the kickoff (reasonable to assume). Run 3 plays for 5 yards (again reasonable) and punt from the 25, you are now looking at a 67 yard free kick. Hell of a story and win! Congrats! |
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Post by coachd5085 on Feb 17, 2024 13:56:00 GMT -6
My decision to kick deep when we scored with a minute left and all 3 timeouts after we missed a 2-pt conversion to tie was questioned (loudly) by pretty much every parent in our stands behind me, and even some of my coaches on my own staff. Depending on onside kick rules at the time, this doesn't seem like a horrible decision. One of those "if it works out, great, if not..you are an idiot" things that pops up all the time. This seems like a bad decision from you, no matter how one slices it. Especially given that the time out not used here was simply used to tell the kicker something that could have been said during the change of possession. |
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OT Choice
Feb 18, 2024 9:15:38 GMT -6
via mobile
Post by cqmiller on Feb 18, 2024 9:15:38 GMT -6
To me it was the timeout to get my field goal team situated to give us a chance to make it if we needed to go on offense.
If we don't get the 3rd down play, I need to run 2 plays and complete at least 1 for about 10 yards to give us a shot at a FG, but wanting to be able to call TO and setup for that FG was worth the 40 seconds to me.
Once the free kick was gonna happen (after the 3rd down) now I used it to calm the situation that was happening with the kicker and their players and coaches losing their minds, etc...
Could have bit me in the ass, but I have looked at how Belichick has handled some of those time-sensitive situations and how he has said, "why call the TO and give the opponent a chance to think it over? Let them sweat the time ticking away"
It worked, could have not worked, but we had one the season before where we let other team score with about a minute left on purpose so we could at least try to score again and win the game... we complete a long one down to the 2 hardliners and I don't call one there and we let it run all the way down to about 12 seconds. We score with less than 10 instead of calling a TO with 50 sec left and giving their offense a chance to do anything.
I think TOs are more important than the average coach does.
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Post by silkyice on Feb 18, 2024 10:51:37 GMT -6
To me it was the timeout to get my field goal team situated to give us a chance to make it if we needed to go on offense. If we don't get the 3rd down play, I need to run 2 plays and complete at least 1 for about 10 yards to give us a shot at a FG, but wanting to be able to call TO and setup for that FG was worth the 40 seconds to me. I think TOs are more important than the average coach does. But if you call timeout after the 3rd down, you will end up with 40 more seconds. That is time for possibly 4-6 more plays on top of the 2 you said you would run. So that gives you 6-8 plays and then just spike the ball to get your FG team out there if necessary or run them out there if the ball is stopped inbounds under 10 seconds. They should be ready to do that. Just my thoughts. 40 seconds is WAY more valuable than a timeout because the MOST a timeout can buy you is 40 seconds. That being said, each game has a life of its own. Your job is to find a way to win it and you did just that. |
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Post by silkyice on Feb 18, 2024 11:07:59 GMT -6
I just remembered that I went against the odds/analytics/logic two years ago in OT.
Crazy game. Our biggest rival. HUGE rival game where we had put them out of the deep playoffs the last two years.
7-7. They try and kick a FG, we block it, complete a deep jump ball pass and miss a 48 yard FG barely wide right as time expires, so OT.
This being a not-so-friendly rivalry, admin sits the two students sections on opposite ends of the field so that they aren't across from each other. Smart decision.
Anyways, we win the first coin toss and don't pick offense or defense, we pick the side of the field where our student section is.
First OT is ends 14-14.
Their choice, they take defense, so we pick our side again just like planned. Won 21-14.
The student sections legitimately make that much of a difference in this rival game. We actually dominated OT. Scored in 2 plays both times. They only scored on a 4th down play from the 10 where the QB knee hit the ground before he threw it when you put in slow motion. We had 4 good plays out of 4 and they had 1 out of 8.
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