OT Choice

If I am being honest, I only engaged because it's the middle of February and I have my football checklist complete and an hour until the end of the school day. 

I think you are spot on that an extra possession for the Chiefs is not a great decision and that many are thinking in hindsight. 

I am not in the party that believes that Mahomes is going to score no matter what in those overtime possessions. If that is the case, you better be working on 2-point plays and taking the ball second. 

Look at it in this perspective. What's better chances of positive outcome. Let PM know what he must do to win (which he has a track record of in these situations) OR say We supposedly have the best offense in NFL. In an overtime situation let them know what they must do, and if it comes down to a 2pt conversion, or giving the ball back to PM. Is my chances better seeing if my offense can gain 2 yds or give ball back to him knowing what he has to do. My perspective is based on players. This guy obviously is special.

Do you allow Jordan to take the last shot to win the championship? or do you make him shoot first and put the ball in your hands for a championship?   

So the mistake that the 49ers made was

1) not going for the TD and 2 . Instead they kicked a FG.

2) not going for a surprise onside kick after they kicked the FG.




Taking the ball first was not a mistake.

I think some of this discussion has kind of gone sideways based on a belief that there was a phonebooth on the sideline and that Mahomes would without question step inside, come out with a cape on, and not be stopped.

Also I think some of you are missing silkyice 's point that if such a phonebooth existed and Mahomes would obviously not be stopped--then logically the ONLY chance you had is to stop him by rule--meaning 49er offense scores, KC offense scores, 49er offense gets ball back and scores...game over.  Because as silky has pointed out, many here have ordained it that Mahomes and the Chiefs were automatically scoring.  So in that case, kicking it to the chiefs gave them the automatic win, as Superman I mean Mahomes would automatically score twice and by rule that would end the game. 

Clearly the only possible answer for the 49ers would be to have run the dbl wing or flexbone offenses. 

Doesn't this depend on whether the Chiefs would go for one or two if they have the ball first and score? I know they've said they were going for two if they they got the ball second and scored, but have they said what they would do if they had it first?

Because if you kick to them and they score and go for one, then you aren't giving Mahomes an extra possession if you decide the game on your two point attempt.

Right.


If Mahomes always does what it takes, and you kick to them first, your ONLY chance to win is
They kick the xpt (not your decision)
And
You score a TD
And
You get the 2 pt conversation


So when you kickoff, the game is NOT in your hands. It is in Andy Reid’s hands to decide.


If you receive, you score and get the 2.

Try the onside. If you get it, you win.

If not,

Mahomes scores and gets 2.

You only have to kick a FG now. At least you have a chance. And you had a chance to recover an onside or drive and get a FG.

I'll be really interested to see how many guys will actually go for two if they score on the first possession over am extended period of time. Miss it and lose to an extra point and that's a tough press conference after the game.

Well you might not have a choice if you get the ball first or not.

Why? 

One of the analytics guys on the internet said that they had simulated the OT rules last year when the new rule was first announced. Simulated 130,000 times the team going second won 50.14% of the time.

Along with that analysis  the team that gets the ball first likely has to assume the opponent will go for 2 if they get the chance.  If not, then the team kicking off is at a fairly large disadvantage based strictly on the rules because if the initial kicking team simply matches the receiving team--that team with the first possession gets the ball in sudden death and will always have an attempt to win without the opponent getting a matching possession. 

I think that in the next year or two, because of the discussions being had here, it is very possible that the overtime just becomes a 15 minute period.  Maybe even 2 10 min quarters.  Something where the clock matters and not the game theory regarding sudden death scenarios. 

Yep. This has been one of my points.

I don't know if I'm "Team kick" or "Team receive" yet. I think it might depend on the strength of my team.

Like if I'm the Jets, playing with a backup QB and a terrible offense, I probably don't want the ball second. Because I don't think I want the end of game play being my crappy offense trying to convert a 2 pointer while my really good defense watches from the sideline. All plays are not created equal and I probably want my strongest unit on the field for the game deciding play.

Of course, almost all of the discussion here has revolved around the assumption that both teams are going to score, which is probably unlikely.

And Kyle coaches scared so he'd never go for 2