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Post by Chris Clement on Nov 4, 2020 6:56:32 GMT -6
Charitably I’d say because he knows that FG% is very dependent on kick distance, and that every bit counts, and that even if he scores by accident it’s possibly still better than the longer kick (I’d have to run the numbers).
Cynically I’d say because many NFL coaches get wrapped up in the moment and are not great at managing the clock, the situation, and the play call.
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Post by Chris Clement on Nov 4, 2020 1:04:53 GMT -6
There have been two games recently, the Penn State-Indiana and the Atlanta Falcons game- where, instead of running time off of the clock, a runner scored a TD, allowing the opponent enough time to go down the field, score, and win. Of course, the coaches got ripped for their "lack of situational awareness". As coaches, you also know that the coaches may well have told the players the right thing to do but you can't publicly blame the player, I was interested in hearing if others have similar stories. I do: We were in a close game that was expected to e close. With a few seconds left we were on the opponents 25. We had a good kicker but needed to be a little closer to be sure. We call our last time out and tell them exactly what to do. The defense is playing soft coverage so we call for a 10 yard out route. We tell the receiver- a smart, veteran kid who's not looking to pad his stats- to just catch it and step out of bounds. We remind him again as they're going out onto the field. Of course if that's what happened there wouldn't be a point to the story. Our savvy veteran receiver runs a crisp 10 yard route, catches the ball on the 15, and turns upfield to try to score. He's tackled inbounds, end of half, no score. We go on to lose a close game. Fortunately it was pre-internet so we didn't have to hear too much about what morons we coaches are. How about you? Actually matt ryan was mic’d up and clearly tells Gurley “get the first, then fall down. Don’t score” For what it’s worth I think this clip was taken out of context, probably from the timeout a couple plays earlier, because the TD was & goal, there was no first down to be had. We lost a game because our holder/superstar receiver played too much Madden and he saw the game clock running down to zero and panicked so he called for the ball before the punter was set instead of letting the clock run to zero and snapping at our leisure. Rushed kick, no good. Missed a chance at a game winning FG because our receiver fought for extra yardage instead of going down and stopping the clock with two seconds left. You can try to cover every scenario but really you’re better off covering the more likely ones and making sure they stick.
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Post by Chris Clement on Nov 4, 2020 1:00:52 GMT -6
In October in Canada, which I assume is roughly comparable, I just use an old pair of football gloves for practice most days. It’s enough to take the edge off the cold and still leave me enough dexterity to use a pen. It’s so-so with the phone. I could use some capacitative thread but I just buy a pile of cheap styluses and keep them in my pocket.
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Post by Chris Clement on Sept 30, 2020 7:44:03 GMT -6
I dont think its working for mike leach.(i kid, i kid) I’m already seeing the SEC coaches in the stands dumping on Leach and saying it’ll only be a few weeks before SEC coaches “figure out his gimmick scheme.” They are also obsessed with the idea that he’ll have Miss St. on probation within 2 years. According to them, this is also proof that LSU is way down this year and will be lucky to make a bowl game unless they fire Orgeron. Watching him send these “fans” into hysterics is making me like him even more To be fair, Mississippi State being on probation would be very much on-brand.
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Post by Chris Clement on Sept 28, 2020 12:15:48 GMT -6
No special teams. Such a waste of practice time. No punting, no PAT, no FG, no kickoffs. Refs have enormous latitude for mercy rules, so if you’re dominating a team and stop them on fourth down in their own red zone he might just back you up fifty yards. Because who gives a crap, you’re up by a hundred in a kids’ game. Or just declare that Ralph can’t play RB any more this game. Because again, you’re up by a hundred, Ralph’s got 250 yards and 4 TDs, and he’s too big and strong for anyone to enjoy themselves when he’s running, Ralph himself included. Find coaches who enjoy competing more than they enjoy winning. Guys who want to compete are looking to win within the spirit of the game, guys who want to win are going to find little word games in the rules. Preventive officiating. Don’t throw a flag unless it’s absolutely necessary. Promote a game that MOVES. No five-minute huddles, get organized, run a small enough playbook that kids can understand it. This may be heretical, but 9-man. Shrink the field and make it so that their little brains can grasp what’s going on with fewer players, and reduce the track meet aspect of so many toss and sweep leagues.
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Post by Chris Clement on Sept 27, 2020 13:26:11 GMT -6
Assuming there aren't any logistical concerns, like a shortage of coaches to keep the sideline organized or something like that, when I'm calling plays I want the solitude to make my decisions with the best process I can. I don't want 500 people making suggestions. I have all the information I need arrayed just the way I want, I have my most trusted lieutenant on the radio, I might have a second, and I shut out all the chaos of the sideline where people let emotions take over and read deep narratives into every random event. Give me the booth.
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Post by Chris Clement on Aug 14, 2020 8:34:30 GMT -6
Flexseal?
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Post by Chris Clement on Aug 13, 2020 13:18:25 GMT -6
I think to understand this offer we need to consider some things we either know or can reasonably infer about Hudl (without making value statement on whether or not hudl is good or bad, as I believe larrymoe already waxed rhapsodic on the matter):
-The vast majority of their revenue almost certainly comes from public HS athletics, both directly and indirectly (ad revenue is driven by eyeballs, and most of those eyeballs come from their HS sales, just by sheer volume) -Their biggest cost is almost certainly server time. -It's most likely that a lot of their server time contracts are somewhat locked in, their costs are going to fluctuate a lot less than their revenues might -They're a subscription service that lives year to year -As a tech company they're probably leveraged to the eyeballs -They're for sure one of the first things to be cut if sports are cancelled.
They probably did some rough calculations and figured out how much revenue they absolutely needed in order to stay afloat this year. So they're offering you what is essentially some kind of a derivative instrument. If you're certain the season will get cancelled then stay out of the game. But if you're uncertain this gives you a chance to hedge. You can do some basic math to figure out what's the best option based on what you expect to happen and how much you value different things. It all makes perfect sense.
If Hudl doesn't offer this, they risk a mass cancellation of seasons, and a mass cancellation of subscriptions, even for just this year, and they're dead. If the season ends up totally unaffected then they eat a loss on the next year, but hopefully they can make that up on the backend with some upsales.
As far as a Hudl exodus, I think it's unlikely. Hudl is easy, accessible, and has brand recognition. They chisel you, sure, but they're like Bloomberg. It's an objectively {censored} platform, but by having placed itself as the industry standard and, frankly, making sure that users above the age of 50 never have to learn anything new, they can remain the industry because the hassle of changing is just such a pain.
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Post by Chris Clement on Aug 12, 2020 10:02:54 GMT -6
For prescout I’ll crush it with something on in the background, it’s pretty mindless.
For scout/data entry it’s basically the same. Anything tricky I leave and come back to it after with focus.
To actually study is when I’ll get into a more focussed state in my bubble. I don’t want to watch with other people at first because the discussion tends to drag and I want to have my own thoughts beforehand. When we watch in a group I want to go over a curated playlist to be more efficient. I don’t need to watch 1000 plays with the guys, let’s focus on the stuff we’ve identified as being most relevant.
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Post by Chris Clement on Jul 23, 2020 12:09:27 GMT -6
You'd be 6 weeks into pads and helmets by July 23? That doesn't sound like fun at all.
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Post by Chris Clement on Jun 18, 2020 17:52:35 GMT -6
It’s as long as they want, it’s literally the time “before practice.” Usually the first few days of camp my vet 22 y/o RBs are out there a solid 45 minutes early slowly warming up their elderly bodies while the rookies race out at the last second and then by day 4 or 5 the rookies are out there early too.
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Post by Chris Clement on Jun 6, 2020 21:28:28 GMT -6
Reminds me of the story of running lights in the 1950s. Might've been Paul Harvey or some other radio commenter who got people to turn their headlights on while driving in daylight to indicate support for...whatever. After a while running with lights on came to mean any of a variety of things, many probably contradicting each other; maybe they alternated days? This led to a lot of dead car batteries, so people started installing a small running light. See also Thurber's Fable for Our Times, "The Very Proper Gander". Or the bit in The President's Analyst about the people next door, "Real right wingers -- flying the flag every day!" Remember Dicks Out for Harambe? Reminds me also of the stickers at polling places, "I Voted". Whoopee. Somebody else voted too, for the other guy, so your votes canceled each other'a. Why should I care about the fact that people voted, if I don't know who or what they voted for or against? If you're for a cause that everybody's for, why are any of you advertising it? Tell me why you disagree with most, that's more interesting. If you're for something that everybody's for, the only thing to brag about is helping to accomplish it, like if you want to cure cancer, tell me about your research that might lead to a cure or at least better understanding. A propôs of nothing, daytime running lights have been mandatory here for 30 years.
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Post by Chris Clement on Apr 27, 2020 7:23:59 GMT -6
I’ve never tried turf shoes. I switched to cleats because, as you said, you can’t really move in runners on grass, and the slight lift in the heel of a standard shoe just killed my back with all the standing. In cleats they’re flatter so my back is so much happier.
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Post by Chris Clement on Apr 23, 2020 9:21:12 GMT -6
Watch out, we got a badass over here!
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Post by Chris Clement on Apr 19, 2020 21:24:56 GMT -6
It looks like the thing they’re really selling is expert film analysis focused on tackling and the grading of tackling, inasmuch as you want to accept their expertise at face values. I’m not sure the margins are that small for your team to really need it, but I suspect they’re trying to get paid at both ends because the real value here is what you can find out when you’ve got a lot of tackling data and you can see bigger trends, and then you sell THAT to the same customers as the “gold package.” It’s like a subset of what PFF’s business model is.
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Post by Chris Clement on Apr 13, 2020 12:38:02 GMT -6
Probably because Saban is working in his own self-interest.
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Post by Chris Clement on Apr 12, 2020 15:37:28 GMT -6
Google drawings is not bad if you’re not getting too crazy with it.
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Post by Chris Clement on Apr 12, 2020 15:13:53 GMT -6
14 days from standing up the team to kickoff would be a practical minimum.
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Post by Chris Clement on Apr 6, 2020 14:45:24 GMT -6
Yeah but they won’t know when I call the same thing the very next play
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Post by Chris Clement on Apr 6, 2020 12:27:23 GMT -6
In a sort of meta-way, I find that the biggest advantage of coaching defense is that it's much harder to second-guess. Hoi polloi can recognize formations and whether those are commonly seen elsewhere (read: TV), as well as your run-pass ratio, inside/outside runs, and so on. On defense they don't get it. They can maybe spot if you're really blitz-heavy or something, but that's about it. They see the results and make comments based on that, but your process is pretty inviolate, so that's a plus.
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Post by Chris Clement on Apr 2, 2020 19:52:13 GMT -6
I think NY is doing it this way (2-week chunks) and they are the MOST affected. IMO, I don't think it's a one-up on each other thing. I dunno about the rest of you but I'd rather know that most likely, things will be shut down for months at a time. This allows me to plan ahead, buckle down, and prepare whether that be financially, psychologically, etc. I also think that doing it in a 2 week chunk sends the wrong message to the average person, giving them false hope that things will go back to normal in 2 weeks when according to the experts, this thing is most likely to last months. I really don't want to turn this into a pissing match, but how is anyone an expert on this? This is an unprecedented event in modern history. It’s not really. Plagues happen, and epidemiologists study them.
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Post by Chris Clement on Apr 1, 2020 21:31:49 GMT -6
August is a long way off, and the nature of exponential is that they’re very hard to extrapolate very far, the error grows really fast even if the assumptions are correct. It’s impossible to realistically predict at this point.
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Post by Chris Clement on Mar 31, 2020 9:42:19 GMT -6
I try to keep a scaffolded structure while incorporating fun, little competitions. Like if we do agility work I'll make a little obstacle courses of different relevant agility movements and make a relay race, or if we work hands at the end I'll throw harder and harder and we see who's the last to drop it - amusing anecdote: we had a kiddie team come join our college practice once, and we did that drill, and this one kid was snagging everything, it was down to him and my last two grown men, so he starts trash-talking me, so the next round I'm throwing at maybe 95% and he snags it right in front of his face like it's nothing. Next time around at 99% he chirps me again and the ball goes through hs hands, off his helmet just above his forehead, ball goes straight up, kid goes straight down.
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Post by Chris Clement on Mar 23, 2020 13:10:56 GMT -6
If you want a simpler and more useful EP chart, put a dot at 100 yards and -2 points, and a dot at 0 yards and +6 points, then draw a straight line between them. It's not perfect, especially at the extremes, but it's remarkably accurate.
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Post by Chris Clement on Jan 16, 2020 14:12:10 GMT -6
Presumably someone would at least buy the debt, even at pennies on the dollar. That coach could then probably negotiate to pay more than his usual annual fee and clear the debt for less than face value, giving everyone an easy win.
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Post by Chris Clement on Jan 13, 2020 23:04:39 GMT -6
I guess they’re saving a ton of money now!
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Post by Chris Clement on Dec 20, 2019 11:13:43 GMT -6
Sunk cost fallacy is huge in football.
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Post by Chris Clement on Dec 20, 2019 10:14:09 GMT -6
Yeah, but that's confounded by desperate coaches changing kickers to save their job. On the whole NFL kickers are basically indistinguishable (except Justin Tucker).
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Post by Chris Clement on Dec 14, 2019 17:20:29 GMT -6
You have to model it, but you can use a trivial model. Just using distance is going to get you a 90/10 solution (90% perfect, 10% effort). You can get much fancier. You can then adjust for selection/desperation bias at longer distances, but it’s tricky. The crux is that longer FGs in ordinary situations are only attempted by better kickers, inflating the true average. But late in the halves they’re attempted by teams with no other options, depressing the average. There’s an interplay here where selection bias dominates, then they sort of cancel out, then desperation bias takes over. If you want to get real cute you can incorporate lots of other factors - distance, wind, altitude... but then you need a more sophisticated model. Some are very “interpretable,” which is a fancy way of saying that I could explain how it works such that you’d understand and be able to recreate a small version on pen and paper, and some are less straightforward. The fanciest ones we call “black boxes,” because stuff goes in and stuff goes out and you have no idea what’s happening inside. But my research showed that you can use a simple kNN model and get excellent results. That stands for k-Nearest Neighbours, so you’re just averaging the results of the k most similar kicks in your dataset. Adding features also creates problems. Imagine an NFL model that considers altitude. It seems like a good idea, but only one stadium is at high altitude and second place is in the same division. So I’m trying to factor in altitude you end up massively over representing the Broncos kicker. If you want to consider weather you need to think about what constitutes “weather,” and find a way to get good weather information, because the NFL data only gives approximate weather at kickoff. Are you going to split wind into headwind and crosswind? You’ll need to know which way the field is oriented and what direction teams are kicking. Every decision has consequences and you need to know what the question is before you try to answer it. Since we’re looking at a 12 year sample of a team based at low altitude, I’d just use straight distance and assume the rest will average out. So, for someone who is less studied in statistics than yourself, we are tossing outliers and keeping the most common kicks, correct? Also, to back up a bit, why couldn't we just take the total FG attempts of each team over that 12 year period and compare them to Alabama's total FG attempts over that 12 year period? I mean, that was pretty much the crucial point of your original skepticism of Alabama's more kicks missed than anyone else stat, was it not? That we needed to have an idea of how many attempts Bama made compared to everyone else. Also, if a team attempts significantly more kicks than anyone else, in a sense they "get some slack" because generally speaking, the more attempts you make, the harder it is to keep a good success percentage, and the more impressive a high success percentage becomes. Consider that the New York Jets have a 100% success rate in the Super Bowl, while the Steelers have a 75% success rate in the Super Bowl, but the Steelers' record is more impressive because they have been to the Super Bowl 8 times and won 6 times, while the Jets have only been 1 time, even though they won. We’re considering ALL the kicks, there are no outliers, but we’re considering the distance. It’s not just that Alabama has more misses because they have more attempts, they may be systematically attempting longer field goals. But yes, sample size is an issue, but there’s an easy formula to figure out “confidence intervals,” which is basically saying “the true number is probably in this range,” so the Steelers’ confidence intervals is much smaller than than the Jets’. More properly, outliers exist, but you can’t just ignore them, they’re actually important. You can only dismiss them at the very last stage and then only if you have a specific reason for why they lie outside the norm. Weird things DO happen, just infrequently. It’s possible that once you did all the math you’d find that Alabama does have below-expectation field goal kicking, but that the confidence intervals are such that you’re pretty sure it’s just luck.
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Post by Chris Clement on Dec 14, 2019 12:18:00 GMT -6
As far as I know most schools expect kickers to walk on before giving them a scholarship. If they could just have 86 scholarships instead of 85, they could all give a kicker a scholarship. Actually, it should 89. They should be able to scholarship 4 deep on both sides of the ball before they hand one to the kicker. I mean the kicker is many times the leader scorer on the team and many times the whole game rides on his foot. But in no way is he more important than the 8th offensive guard. I’m getting a sense of Poe’s Law here.
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