Talented Teams

The larger the talent gap, the more often the more talented team wins.

If there's a small talent gap, the percentage is lower.

I throw around a saying to the athletes during workouts, "9 times out of 10 the best athletes win", if asked about the 'other time' I will sarcastically reply, "thats when I coach against better athletes and whup 'em none-the-less"

I want to further understand the original question:

If you mean just who has the best athletes, whether naturally or by working out, I'd say probably 60-65% of the time at the HS level. Sometimes the best athletes aren't the best team (lacking skill development or coaching); but more often than not those other factors balance out and the advantage of athleticism is the variable that is different and sways the win to that team.

If by talent you mean both athleticism & skill, I would say probably 70-75% of the time. Though a small amount of the time a more talented team loses because the other team out schemes them, the majority of the time they just lose due to the random variation involved in sports. Essentially, sometimes the consistently better team loses; thats why there hasn't been an undefeated team in the NFL in over 50 years. And though HS ball is less homogenous than the NFL, the same still plays true here.

Teams are not consistent, they have a ceiling and floor, usually they play in the middle of those two. Some teams, say St. John Bosco, have a floor way above most other team's ceiling. That being written, when the better (more talented) team is near their floor, and the worse team near their ceiling.....some times the less talented team wins.

Talent doesn't always win; ORGANIZED talent has a much better chance to win. A few teams in my area are very talented and shouldn't lose a game. With that being said, they lose (early in the year) because they aren't organized or don't play as a team. It's one thing to coach, organize, and create an "all for one" attitude; it's another thing to collect great athletes and simply turn them loose.

Sometimes, when Uranus blocks out the sun , the better team does not win.....

Good point.

Talent along with culture come into play.  There are many teams of just average High School kids that win a high percentage of their games.

There are some talented groups of players, but they are NOT a "team".  Those guys are just a group.  They're not going to play championship caliber football.

However,  they'll look real good trying!