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Post by coachjpwilliams on Jul 28, 2022 7:57:42 GMT -6
I'm looking for data/percentages regarding how negative plays affect scoring drives? Conversely, the impact of explosive plays on scoring drives. I know I've seen some numbers before, but I can't seem to find them through any searches. Anybody got any fairly recent data?
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Post by jstoss24 on Jul 28, 2022 8:34:11 GMT -6
I’m not sure about negative plays, but the statistic for explosive plays I was always given by an old head coach of mine was that if you get 1 explosive on a drive you have >70% chance of points and if you get 2 explosives on a drive you have >90% chance of points. I don’t have the data on hand to back that up, but he has done a lot of research on NFL and college games to get to those numbers.
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Post by fantom on Jul 28, 2022 9:43:39 GMT -6
I’m not sure about negative plays, but the statistic for explosive plays I was always given by an old head coach of mine was that if you get 1 explosive on a drive you have >70% chance of points and if you get 2 explosives on a drive you have >90% chance of points. I don’t have the data on hand to back that up, but he has done a lot of research on NFL and college games to get to those numbers. You have to be careful about projecting NFL and college numbers onto HS. "Points" could be a TD or FG. NFL kickers are capable from the +40 and pretty reliable from the +35. At upper level colleges they're probably capable from the +30 and reliable from the +25. That means that one explosive play gives you a great chance to get in FG range and get points and two almost guarantees it. Most HS teams don't have kickers that good. Some of us have a hard time kicking PATs. That means that for most of us "getting points" means scoring TDs which means that he have to move the ball farther. As for the OP's question about negative plays I'd guess that NFL and college numbers are even less helpful for HS situations. Aaron Rodgers or even Jordan Love has a much better chance at converting a 3rd and 15 that a HS QB. |
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Post by jstoss24 on Jul 28, 2022 10:18:16 GMT -6
I’m not sure about negative plays, but the statistic for explosive plays I was always given by an old head coach of mine was that if you get 1 explosive on a drive you have >70% chance of points and if you get 2 explosives on a drive you have >90% chance of points. I don’t have the data on hand to back that up, but he has done a lot of research on NFL and college games to get to those numbers. You have to be careful about projecting NFL and college numbers onto HS. "Points" could be a TD or FG. NFL kickers are capable from the +40 and pretty reliable from the +35. At upper level colleges they're probably capable from the +30 and reliable from the +25. That means that one explosive play gives you a great chance to get in FG range and get points and two almost guarantees it. Most HS teams don't have kickers that good. Some of us have a hard time kicking PATs. That means that for most of us "getting points" means scoring TDs which means that he have to move the ball farther. As for the OP's question about negative plays I'd guess that NFL and college numbers are even less helpful for HS situations. Aaron Rodgers or even Jordan Love has a much better chance at converting a 3rd and 15 that a HS QB. That’s very true. This was at the college level, so it doesn’t directly translate to the high school game. That being said, I still think the odds of scoring on a drive in which you get 2 or more explosives is very high, it just may not be 90% high. |
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Post by blb on Jul 28, 2022 10:42:29 GMT -6
Don't have data, just speaking from experience, observation-anecdotally.
Especially in this era of "Basketball on Grass" more games are won or lost on big plays - making them or not allowing them.
It seems with more teams in the NFL playing Zone (or Zone-Match) pass defense - even the pros are realizing that.
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Post by morris on Jul 28, 2022 13:43:27 GMT -6
You might be able to sort though Kevin Kelly stuff. The guy that never punted. I think he used to use negative plays, explosives and maybe turnovers as the measurable. He had some type of percentages that went with it.
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Post by tog on Jul 28, 2022 14:13:54 GMT -6
I’m not sure about negative plays, but the statistic for explosive plays I was always given by an old head coach of mine was that if you get 1 explosive on a drive you have >70% chance of points and if you get 2 explosives on a drive you have >90% chance of points. I don’t have the data on hand to back that up, but he has done a lot of research on NFL and college games to get to those numbers. You have to be careful about projecting NFL and college numbers onto HS. "Points" could be a TD or FG. NFL kickers are capable from the +40 and pretty reliable from the +35. At upper level colleges they're probably capable from the +30 and reliable from the +25. That means that one explosive play gives you a great chance to get in FG range and get points and two almost guarantees it. Most HS teams don't have kickers that good. Some of us have a hard time kicking PATs. That means that for most of us "getting points" means scoring TDs which means that he have to move the ball farther. As for the OP's question about negative plays I'd guess that NFL and college numbers are even less helpful for HS situations. Aaron Rodgers or even Jordan Love has a much better chance at converting a 3rd and 15 that a HS QB. this was my original thought in coming up with poba I didn't want any negative plays at all at least get something no penetration for negative plays it still happened some, but was more about the skill guys messing it up than some ol stuff allowing it because of massive mismatches up front I never did a study or "analytics" on it, but was just what occurred to me innately somehow as a young coach moving into oc world |
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Post by dubber on Jul 28, 2022 15:22:26 GMT -6
I don’t have data on negatives and scores, but I do have some on negatives and converting the series.
This is with an average offense…..lots of 1st year varsity starters, lots of sophomores.
This offense was 100% on 3rd and 2 or less, and 19% on 3rd and 8+…….The 3rd and longs situations were 67% a result of penalties, and 29% the result of losing yardage……the minimal balance was a 3rd and 8 where positive yards/no gains occurred on 1st and 2nd down (usually a 1 yard gain and incomplete pass, or vica-versa).
Like tog said, focusing on building no loss run plays will mostly likely keep you in 3rd and manageable at worst……
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Post by morris on Jul 29, 2022 6:43:29 GMT -6
Don't have data, just speaking from experience, observation-anecdotally. Especially in this era of "Basketball on Grass" more games are won or lost on big plays - making them or not allowing them. It seems with more teams in the NFL playing Zone (or Zone-Match) pass defense - even the pros are realizing that. This is kind of what all the Briles guys are based on. Using IZ like tog is talking about. Find a few ways to steal yards and take as many shots as they can. Those guys use pretty high percentage/safe plays everywhere except the shot plays. |
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