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Post by rhp997 on Feb 21, 2008 14:42:57 GMT -6
Does anyone have stats for turnover ratio in correlation to wins and losses?
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Post by pegleg on Feb 21, 2008 18:53:54 GMT -6
i have no stats.........
but i believe it is the single most important stat in football. the team with the ball scores.
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Post by coachbdud on Feb 21, 2008 22:09:44 GMT -6
last few years we turned the ball over a ton, but this year only had a few fumbles and ints.
we were +20 something on turnovers on the season but only managed a 2-8 season. We moved the ball well inbetween 30s but stalled a lot as we approached red zone.
our D got a lot of takeaways, but also got shredded a lot. Each drive was hit or miss
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2008 8:07:03 GMT -6
In 2007, these were the top teams in the NCAA in Turnovers Gained over Lost
1) Kansas +21 12-1
2) LSU +20 12-2
3) Florida Atl. +18 8-5
4) Ball State +17 7-6
5) E. Carolina +17 8-5
Bottom 3
Northern Illinois -17 2-10
Nebraska -17 5-7
Baylor -18 3-9
Incidentally, on some of the other teams:
Georgia +9
Oklahoma +8
FLorida +5
Michigan +2
USC +2
Notre Dame +/- 0
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brmurf
Freshmen Member
Posts: 93
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Post by brmurf on Feb 22, 2008 9:05:49 GMT -6
The last year we have been a turnover machine---we ahve finished last or second to last in our conference every year, and conversely our records have reflected this problem. We lost 2 games this year by a total of 18 points and had a combined 15 TO's (dont ask but anyway we could we did)
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Post by dubber on Feb 22, 2008 10:07:20 GMT -6
Would it be fair to say that maybe the margin doesn't matter as much as the fact your offense doesn't turn the ball over?
Seems like teams like Georgia and Oklahoma (only +8 and +9 respectively------USC only at +2?!) aren't generating a whole lot of T.O.'s on defense, they are just NOT turning it over on offense.
These teams are pretty good at finishing drives too, so maybe that figures in.
I dunno....just thinking out loud
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Post by superpower on Feb 22, 2008 11:35:40 GMT -6
Would it be fair to say that maybe the margin doesn't matter as much as the fact your offense doesn't turn the ball over? Seems like teams like Georgia and Oklahoma (only +8 and +9 respectively------USC only at +2?!) aren't generating a whole lot of T.O.'s on defense, they are just NOT turning it over on offense. These teams are pretty good at finishing drives too, so maybe that figures in. I dunno....just thinking out loud I think you are on to something. Coach Hugh Wyatt taught me this: First eliminate losing. Then find a way to win. Teams that don't turn the ball over and don't get penalties are certainly eliminating things that lead to losing. |
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Post by dubber on Feb 22, 2008 22:29:34 GMT -6
Penalties are another category that is interesting......I think not all penalties are created equal.
Mental penalties.......false starts, personal fouls, unsportsmanlike, etc. are definitely detrimental
But some penalties are the result of hustle. If I unintentionally facemask a guy because I am relentlessly going after him, that's acceptable, because I am going after him
get what I mean?
If an OL use "good technique", but calls for a couple of holds, is it worth it for the good pass protection the rest of the game?
I read an AFM article that examined this.......the most penalized teams and the least penalized teams were all over the spectrum of win/loss ratio.
I think if you can eliminate "dumb" non-hustle penalties, then you can live with taking the aggression penalties, because you are getting a higher quality performance on the rest of your plays.
Again, I could be waaaaaaaaaaay off base
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Post by coachveer on Feb 23, 2008 7:55:27 GMT -6
This is not a dirct quote. But, I think American Football Magizine did a series of articles on what really wins football games. Turnover ratio was way up at the top of the list and they did have some numbers broken down. It was a good read. I will see if they have it posted in their web site.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2008 22:49:53 GMT -6
A lot of coaches put a lot of emphasis on pass defense efficiency as well.
I've been big on turnover ratio. Since 2005 we've forced 114 takeaways and turned it over 39. The win-loss column bears that out, but I think the quote about first eliminating the thing that makes you lose is very accurate. I like that.
Just for your interest. Top 5 in the NCAA in Pass Defense Efficiency in 2007
1) Utah 9-4
2) Arkansas 8-5
3) LSU 12-2
4) Ohio State 11-2
5) Virginia Tech 11-3
USC, Auburn, South Florida, Kansas, Connecticut round out the top 10
I think you notice that all the top teams don't rank high in these defensive categories, but LSU, Ohio State, and V-Tech rank fairly high in most of them as do Kansas and USC.
So I think that top defensive schools have well rounded units and put away the wins each week.
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Post by coachd5085 on Feb 24, 2008 23:05:15 GMT -6
Would it be fair to say that maybe the margin doesn't matter as much as the fact your offense doesn't turn the ball over? Seems like teams like Georgia and Oklahoma (only +8 and +9 respectively------USC only at +2?!) aren't generating a whole lot of T.O.'s on defense, they are just NOT turning it over on offense. These teams are pretty good at finishing drives too, so maybe that figures in. I dunno....just thinking out loud I would say this rings pretty true. I would say that NOT turning the ball over is probably of much greater importance. On a similar vein, I have heard multiple HOF coaches talk about how they effort they put into stressing creating turnovers is never proportional to the actual turnovers they create. Meaning, one year, they drill the concept extensively, and might create 25 turnovers in a ten game season...the next year, SAME drills, same intensity, same message...8 turnovers. |
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iso
Freshmen Member
Posts: 78
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Post by iso on Feb 24, 2008 23:58:55 GMT -6
According to Bill Billick's book on offensive game planning:
Add negative plays + turnovers + penalties + dropped passes divide by number of plays; if the result is less than 12% you win
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Post by dubber on Feb 25, 2008 9:46:36 GMT -6
According to Bill Billick's book on offensive game planning: Add negative plays + turnovers + penalties + dropped passes divide by number of plays; if the result is less than 12% you win Some of those additions should be weighted in my opinion.......If I have 2 penalites, 4 drops, 3 negative plays, and 0 turnovers (9 "points" total), I am still in better shape than if I just have 5 turnovers (5 "points" total) |
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Post by coachd5085 on Feb 25, 2008 11:30:14 GMT -6
dubber--I agree with what you are saying..but..just a math thing here...it isn't total points, his formula is a % of plays. Chances are if you have 5 turnovers, your total plays will be VERY low, and thus the 5 will result in a greater percentage.
Either way, I think all of that kind of stuff is superficial at best. The key is to eliminate bad things, not try and quantify how many bad things you can allow and still be successful.
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Post by dubber on Feb 25, 2008 18:44:37 GMT -6
good call----did not think of it like that
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