Colts-Chargers: taking a safety

Hmm, interesting point. One point of contention is that the average starting field position after a free-kick after a safety is the 40, not the 30. (http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/09/whats-safety-really-worth.html)

I'm not sure how much that changes the analysis; I agree that the punt was not a great option; and it gave the Chargers the ball very, very deep.

I will say that the punter who kicked that punt that just miraculously put the colts on their own 2 put in a magnificent performance.

i totally agree with Spos21ram. in that instance you give SD a chance to win the game on a field goal instead of tie it. no time outs or not, thats still plenty of time on the clock to get into field goal range, and Nate Keading is good enough to hit one form 57 yards (his career long which he made earlier this year)

the 3rd and 2 play was executed horribly by the Colts on the last possesion. i think it was a great call though. 6 man protection against 5 rushers, and Addai had the cusion for the short pass. i think he may have ran the wrong route though (went to same formaton they scored the TD on the week before with the screen), but because Clark was late off the line, he didnt take his defender upfield far enough, he and the LB were in the throwing lane any way.

then go back to the 4th and 1 when IND decided to go for it instead of a field goal. put those 3 points on the board and IND probally wins.

the last 2 years i think the worst 2 games the Colts have played have been the playoff games, and i dont think it has much to do with SD, but rather IND just beating themselves. i do give credit to Scifres and Sproles for a great game though

I did that in a game. We took the safety and won the game.

I agree 100%. In the NFL, with pro kickers, pro wr's, pro quarterbacks, I just don't see it being a smart thing. What you gain in field position is minimal to moderate, what you LOSE in score differential (from a FG tying to FG winning) is great.

Way back in '73 with the Dolphins ahead of Pittsburgh by 7 with not too much time left (can't remember how much) Shula had Griese take the safety because he did not want to risk the punt block or the return.

Hawke

PS Morris tells the story better than I do.

Another point no one mentioned yet is the ability of pro punters. If you have a HS punter that averages 20-30 yards a punt then you'd probably take a safety, when you have a pro punter that can boom a 40-50 yard punt then why not just punt? The field position difference would be very minnimal from punting from your 2 or punting to kick off after a safety. I would take a pro punter punting from his two and making a touchdown beat me then a FG beating me.

I still don't get why they tried to pass it like they did. 3rd and 2. Run the ball. They were doing OK running it. And at least if they don't get it they are not so backed up. Also, the punter boomed the ball and out kicked his coverage. They got a pretty good return on it.
I would have thought they would run it or do a play action with a quick dumpoff....

But then again if they complete it for the 1st its game over and they look like genuises.
OR if they run it,get stuffed, they get called idiots as everyone knew that HAD to run it...

lol...that's coaching. Calculated risks of play calling...

It does continue the discussion of OT rules. Peyton did not even get a chance to tie it up...Thoughts on that? Do you like sudden death better than shoot out???