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Post by veerman on Feb 12, 2024 10:01:52 GMT -6
Watching the SB last night, and 49ers winning the coin toss choosing to go on Offense first giving the Chiefs last say in the game.
What are your preferences in an OT situation? I was FN shocked personally that 49ers took ball, but talking to other coaches, they are not so much.
I ALWAYS GO DEFENSE FIRST IN THE SITUATION NO MATTER WHAT!!! I want to know what I must do and put the ball in my hands to determine the outcome of the game. I sure as Heck don't let one of the best in the league get to decide.
Again just wondering what other's thoughts are?
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Post by 44dlcoach on Feb 12, 2024 10:20:56 GMT -6
If I understand the rule correctly, then it's a little different than the college/HS choice. Because in the new NFL rule both teams are guaranteed ONE possession, but not equal possessions. I think if it's tied after each team has had their possession, then it becomes sudden death.
So if you take the ball first, and the game ends up tied after each team has one possession, you can go win the game on your second possession without having to defend again.
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Post by coachd5085 on Feb 12, 2024 10:46:29 GMT -6
If I understand the rule correctly, then it's a little different than the college/HS choice. Because in the new NFL rule both teams are guaranteed ONE possession, but not equal possessions. I think if it's tied after each team has had their possession, then it becomes sudden death. So if you take the ball first, and the game ends up tied after each team has one possession, you can go win the game on your second possession without having to defend again. Yes, this is correct. Unlike HS/college, there isn't a guarantee for equal possessions- and also unlike HS and college, you are playing the full game of football- not just offensive vs defense on a truncated field where one is very likely to score. I think it is a much more complex decision than most will realize, with lots of factors. On one hand, NFL teams generally score on less than 50% of their possessions- which then means the "most likely" outcome is that the niners hold the ball on the 3rd possession of the OT period needing only to score to win. I believe that is that math that most likely swayed the "analytics group"'s opinion. But I am not sure how one factors in the advantages of potentially giving the chiefs 4 downs instead of 3 downs, as well as knowing if they can kick, or have to score a touchdown. From a math and game theory perspective, I would not be surprised if the more influential (and controversial) decision was the 49ers kicking the FG as opposed to the 49ers taking the ball first. |
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Post by blb on Feb 12, 2024 11:00:46 GMT -6
Watching the SB last night, and 49ers winning the coin toss choosing to go on Offense first giving the Chiefs last say in the game. What are your preferences in an OT situation? I was FN shocked personally that 49ers took ball, but talking to other coaches, they are not so much. I ALWAYS GO DEFENSE FIRST IN THE SITUATION NO MATTER WHAT!!! I want to know what I must do and put the ball in my hands to determine the outcome of the game. I sure as Heck don't let one of the best in the league get to decide. Again just wondering what other's thoughts are? I agree with you but the NFL is a different animal. The Extra Point rules for example. How tired is your defense? If Niners made their second PAT Chiefs would have had to score a TD just to get to OT. TDs especially in that league have to count seven. You make the best decisions you can with the information you have at the time, and if that's not good enough you live with it. It's only "wrong" if it doesn't work out. It did seem inevitable that when SF had to settle for FG in OT that Mahomes was going to win it. |
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Post by irishdog on Feb 12, 2024 11:04:12 GMT -6
I have always believed if you can't gain 3 yards (whether run or pass) regardless of what down it is you don't deserve to win the game. Both teams uncharacteristically made a lot of mistakes. Unfortunately, the 49ers made more of them, and a very costly blocking mistake in OT that cost them the game. Additionally, the 49ers were much more effective moving the ball from under center than they were in the shotgun.
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Post by CS on Feb 12, 2024 11:11:21 GMT -6
I have always believed if you can't gain 3 yards (whether run or pass) regardless of what down it is you don't deserve to win the game. Both teams uncharacteristically made a lot of mistakes. Unfortunately, the 49ers made more of them, and a very costly blocking mistake in OT that cost them the game. Additionally, the 49ers were much more effective moving the ball from under center than they were in the shotgun. Cause they were feeding the best player on the field from under center. In gun they weren’t getting him the ball |
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Post by blb on Feb 12, 2024 11:30:08 GMT -6
Chiefs had the better TEAM defense and Kicking Game.
That's what kept them alive when offense was struggling mid-season (lost five of eight), in first two playoff games, and got them to Vegas.
Before they scored first TD last night (2nd Half) they had gone 16 possessions without one - with Mahomes at QB!
As Bear Bryant said - Defense, Kicking Game, then do what you can on Offense.
Still wins at all levels.
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Post by silkyice on Feb 12, 2024 11:39:53 GMT -6
I honestly thought the best decision after the FG was a surprise onside kick. It just felt like Mahomes was going to get a TD. How crazy would that have been!
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Post by silkyice on Feb 12, 2024 11:42:29 GMT -6
Also, shocked that the 49ers didn't play the 4th and short play after the timeout better.
No timeout, I get it.
But did no one on the 49ers say that during the timeout that Mahomes is going to have the ball? I realize it was a run pass option, but no reason to go with the fake. And I realize that he could have handed that ball off also. BUT, the season was on the line. Make someone else pick up that first down besides Mahomes. Again, especially after the timeout.
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Post by silkyice on Feb 12, 2024 11:44:37 GMT -6
Also, shocked that the 49ers didn't play the 4th and short play after the timeout better. No timeout, I get it. But did no one on the 49ers say that during the timeout that Mahomes is going to have the ball? I realize it was a run pass option, but no reason to go with the fake. And I realize that he could have handed that ball off also. BUT, the season was on the line. Make someone else pick up that first down besides Mahomes. Again, especially after the timeout. Quoting my own post to say that just makes the Seahawks interception all the worse. With the season on the line, give the ball to your best player. And I realize it wasn't 4th down. But same concept in my book. |
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Post by blb on Feb 12, 2024 11:52:10 GMT -6
If the Chiefs' punt was better (doesn't fall short of returner, hit a blocker, they recover, and then score).
If their 57-yard FG doesn't go between the hands of two rushers.
If Niners' rookie kicker doesn't kick his PAT too low.
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Post by veerman on Feb 12, 2024 12:00:30 GMT -6
OT for last night: Both got a possession. So it is like a HS rule type (not exactly). It was not sudden death or even the if first possession is a TD then game is over. Again I thought it was absolutely crazy not going on defense first.
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Post by silkyice on Feb 12, 2024 12:13:35 GMT -6
OT for last night: Both got a possession. So it is like a HS rule type (not exactly). It was not sudden death or even the if first possession is a TD then game is over. Again I thought it was absolutely crazy not going on defense first. Hold on. You thought it was absolutely crazy? You do realize that if 1) they hold the Chiefs to a FG, that a FG now wins the game for the 49ers. 2) if the 49ers scored a TD on the first possession, then a FG now wins the game for the 49ers. 3) If you play defense first, and the Chiefs score a TD on their 1st possession (which they did), then the 49ers have to score a TD, and then the Chiefs only have to now kick a FG to win. Fine if you thought they should kick first. I disagree, but somewhat understand the logic (actually I don't), but to think taking the ball first is "absolutely crazy" makes no sense. |
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coachtconkle
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Post by coachtconkle on Feb 12, 2024 12:21:47 GMT -6
I can't speak to the pro level but the HS level, or college I guess, I want to get the ball 2nd. That way the players and the coaches know exactly what must be done to win it: Field Goal, TD, PAT or 2-pt. attempt.
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Post by coachd5085 on Feb 12, 2024 12:33:53 GMT -6
OT for last night: Both got a possession. So it is like a HS rule type (not exactly). It was not sudden death or even the if first possession is a TD then game is over. Again I thought it was absolutely crazy not going on defense first. No, it is very much different than the HS rule in that there is no guarantee of equal possessions after the first change. This is quite different than what HS and (more recently) college coaches are used to. Also, the NFL OT is just regular football- not short field football. A google search came up with a study from "Sharp football analysis .com " stating that in 2022- NFL offenses scored on 37.9% of their possessions, and a TD on only 21.9% (although that same search showed that from 2018-2022 Mahomes led chiefs scored on at least 48% of their drives). Put into words, more often than not, an NFL team is not going to score on a possession. Heck as someone posted earlier, the Chiefs went 16 possessions in a row without scoring a TD. This makes the decision quite different than in HS, when you are getting the ball on the 10, or even college when it is on the 25. The rules of the NFL allowed for the 49ers to hold a sizeable advantage in that by going first, they had the opportunity to have 2 possessions with KC only having one. It just didn't work out like that. I likely would have chosen to kick as well, but I do not think it is a slam dunk decision, and I think the math works out that taking the ball was not in anyway crazy. |
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Post by coachd5085 on Feb 12, 2024 12:39:12 GMT -6
OT for last night: Both got a possession. So it is like a HS rule type (not exactly). It was not sudden death or even the if first possession is a TD then game is over. Again I thought it was absolutely crazy not going on defense first. Hold on. You thought it was absolutely crazy? You do realize that if 1) they hold the Chiefs to a FG, that a FG now wins the game for the 49ers. 2) if the 49ers scored a TD on the first possession, then a FG now wins the game for the 49ers. 3) If you play defense first, and the Chiefs score a TD on their 1st possession (which they did), then the 49ers have to score a TD, and then the Chiefs only have to now kick a FG to win. Fine if you thought they should kick first. I disagree, but somewhat understand the logic (actually I don't), but to think taking the ball first is "absolutely crazy" makes no sense. The "logic" of going second is that by going second, you avail yourself of more information. For example, by KC going second, Mahommes and Reid had the information that until they reached FG range, it was always 4 down territory. I don't know if that actually came into play or not, but it still has to be considered an advantage. Obviously had SF scored a TD, then KC would have had the added information that EVERY set of downs would be 4 downs until they scored. That doesn't make it a clearly better choice, and I agree thinking taking the ball first under NFL playoff OT rules is absolutely not "crazy" at all. veerman I think you are struggling to reconcile the difference of 1 guaranteed possession then sudden death with the HS version of sets of possessions. |
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Post by silkyice on Feb 12, 2024 12:42:33 GMT -6
I likely would have chosen to kick as well, but I do not think it is a slam dunk decision, and I think the math works out that taking the ball was not in anyway crazy. Surprising. If you kick first, you HAVE to win on the second possession or you lose or put yourself in situation where the other team has has sudden death advantage. |
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Post by coachd5085 on Feb 12, 2024 12:46:47 GMT -6
I likely would have chosen to kick as well, but I do not think it is a slam dunk decision, and I think the math works out that taking the ball was not in anyway crazy. Surprising. If you kick first, you HAVE to win on the second possession or you lose or put yourself in situation where the other team has has sudden death advantage. Yes, but you on that second possession have several advantages. I really think the more interesting question (with regards to game theory) and likely the more controversially charged one would have been the 49ers not kicking the FG. |
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Post by CS on Feb 12, 2024 12:56:45 GMT -6
Also, shocked that the 49ers didn't play the 4th and short play after the timeout better. No timeout, I get it. But did no one on the 49ers say that during the timeout that Mahomes is going to have the ball? I realize it was a run pass option, but no reason to go with the fake. And I realize that he could have handed that ball off also. BUT, the season was on the line. Make someone else pick up that first down besides Mahomes. Again, especially after the timeout. NFL DC not using triple option principles to stop zone read. End and LB both chased |
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Post by silkyice on Feb 12, 2024 13:04:42 GMT -6
Also, shocked that the 49ers didn't play the 4th and short play after the timeout better. No timeout, I get it. But did no one on the 49ers say that during the timeout that Mahomes is going to have the ball? I realize it was a run pass option, but no reason to go with the fake. And I realize that he could have handed that ball off also. BUT, the season was on the line. Make someone else pick up that first down besides Mahomes. Again, especially after the timeout. NFL DC not using triple option principles to stop zone read. End and LB both chased Exactly, even when the whole world knew that Mahomes was going to end up with the ball. That is my point. At some point, you think players, not plays. The Chiefs certainly did. And there was a TIMEOUT!!!! No idea what Shanahan's role with the defense is, but as a head coach, during a timeout, it is your responsibility to go to that huddle and say stop MAHOMES!!! |
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Post by groundchuck on Feb 12, 2024 13:05:35 GMT -6
I have been in four OT games as a coach. 3-1 record. In all three wins we won the toss and went on defense first. In the loss they won the toss and we had to go on O first. My preference is to win the toss and go on D first. Then we know what we have to do. Every year we practice overtime and I will practice it on Thursdays during the season with a four play script.
In terms of the game last night I read the article and the Niners were playing to be able to win it on the third posession. I would guess they were banking on KC not scoring a TD following the field goal. Since each team would have one posession then SF could go down on pos #3 and finish the deal. At least that's how I interpret it.
I too found it perplexing that the Niners were not ready for Zone read. I know you don't chase ghosts but you have to think players there and say we will not let Mahomes beat us. If he wants to throw it to somebody else or run it with Pacheco tip your cap to them.
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Post by silkyice on Feb 12, 2024 13:12:57 GMT -6
Surprising. If you kick first, you HAVE to win on the second possession or you lose or put yourself in situation where the other team has has sudden death advantage. Yes, but you on that second possession have several advantages. Isn't the ONLY advantage that if the first team scores a TD, that you know you have to score a TD? Or if they kick a FG, then you have to at least kick a FG? So the advantage is that you know what you have to do to match. And all that does is give the ball to the other team to win in sudden death. Now knowledge is an advantage, but not an overwhelming advantage when all that advantage does is to know what you have to match. It isn't like hs or college. Matching is fine there. Matching is not fine in the NFL. Meaning, if everything is the same, but the 49ers kick first, the the only advantage they would have is to know that they had to go for it on 4th instead of kicking. Now that is an advantage. Not arguing it is not. But if they don't score there, they lose. And if they do score there, Mahomes gets the ball and only has to kick a FG to win. Of course that is better than what happened last night. But that is 20/20 hindsight at it's finest. |
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Post by silkyice on Feb 12, 2024 13:14:24 GMT -6
I too found it perplexing that the Niners were not ready for Zone read. I know you don't chase ghosts but you have to think players there and say we will not let Mahomes beat us. If he wants to throw it to somebody else or run it with Pacheco tip your cap to them. Right. And at worst all you give up is a first down if they do it with someone else. But they were going to do it with Mahomes, so bet that!! |
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Post by veerman on Feb 12, 2024 13:19:53 GMT -6
Yes, but you on that second possession have several advantages. Isn't the ONLY advantage that if the first team scores a TD, that you know you have to score a TD? Or if they kick a FG, then you have to at least kick a FG? So the advantage is that you know what you have to do to match. And all that does is give the ball to the other team to win in sudden death. Now knowledge is an advantage, but not an overwhelming advantage when all that advantage does is to know what you have to match. It isn't like hs or college. Matching is fine there. Matching is not fine in the NFL. Meaning, if everything is the same, but the 49ers kick first, the the only advantage they would have is to know that they had to go for it on 4th instead of kicking. Now that is an advantage. Not arguing it is not. But if they don't score there, they lose. And if they do score there, Mahomes gets the ball and only has to kick a FG to win. Of course that is better than what happened last night. But that is 20/20 hindsight at it's finest. Also if you hold them then you know a FG wins it. KC took advantage of going second, knowing they were in 4 down territory their whole drive which helps call plays. 49ers Gave up pts on their last two possessions, and 49ers might have scored on 2 of 3 on their last (not 100 sure). This is also where I want to know what I need to do. I don't want the best player in NFL knowing what he has to do. |
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Post by veerman on Feb 12, 2024 13:24:32 GMT -6
NFL DC not using triple option principles to stop zone read. End and LB both chased Exactly, even when the whole world knew that Mahomes was going to end up with the ball. That is my point. At some point, you think players, not plays. The Chiefs certainly did. And there was a TIMEOUT!!!! No idea what Shanahan's role with the defense is, but as a head coach, during a timeout, it is your responsibility to go to that huddle and say stop MAHOMES!!! This RIGHT HERE...how do you Not have eyes on him, and tell your guys look...this is for all the chips...he is keeping the ball unless we make him throw. |
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Post by silkyice on Feb 12, 2024 13:46:12 GMT -6
knowing they were in 4 down territory their whole drive which helps call plays. But that is not exactly true. It is true until they get into FG range. All of your other points are good. |
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Post by carookie on Feb 12, 2024 14:07:43 GMT -6
knowing they were in 4 down territory their whole drive which helps call plays. But that is not exactly true. It is true until they get into FG range. All of your other points are good. Exactly. Had KC been held on 3rd down when in FG range then kicking a FG would be a perfectly viable option & they would not 'know they were going for it on 4th down.' I doubt they go for it on a 4th & 15 from the Niner 20 (had that been the situation), they just kick the FG and let it go to sudden death. |
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Post by coachd5085 on Feb 12, 2024 14:17:12 GMT -6
Yes, but you on that second possession have several advantages. Isn't the ONLY advantage that if the first team scores a TD, that you know you have to score a TD? Or if they kick a FG, then you have to at least kick a FG? So the advantage is that you know what you have to do to match. And all that does is give the ball to the other team to win in sudden death. Now knowledge is an advantage, but not an overwhelming advantage when all that advantage does is to know what you have to match. It isn't like hs or college. Matching is fine there. Matching is not fine in the NFL. Meaning, if everything is the same, but the 49ers kick first, the the only advantage they would have is to know that they had to go for it on 4th instead of kicking. Now that is an advantage. Not arguing it is not. But if they don't score there, they lose. And if they do score there, Mahomes gets the ball and only has to kick a FG to win. Of course that is better than what happened last night. But that is 20/20 hindsight at it's finest. You also have the advantage of knowing its 4 down territory. That is definitely an advantage to know Ok, 1st and 10 on our 20, got 4 downs here. Ok 1st and 10 on our 33 got 4 downs here. 3rd and 4th to get 7 is much different than 3rd to get 7. All the way until FG range, in which case you are now prepared to either win or tie the game. I do think something not being talked about much on this board is that the 49ers defense had just been on the field for an 11 play drive. I can easily see that factoring in with taking the ball and giving them a rest. |
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Post by blb on Feb 12, 2024 14:40:20 GMT -6
At some point you have to count on your defense to make a winning play.
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Post by 44dlcoach on Feb 12, 2024 14:44:43 GMT -6
I think a scenario where I would defer is if I had already decided that if the other team scores first, then I'm going to go for 2 and the win after my TD.
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