Post by dubber on Dec 4, 2007 17:42:03 GMT -6
Last night I decided to make the Pats/Ravens game a learning endeavor. I decided to tally the amount of plays that went to each team-------sort of like they won this play. My aim was to quantify the game, and find those areas that seem to be the most important in terms of winning.
My system:
Offense gains 3+ yards on a run, they win
Defense stops them for 2- yards on a run, they win
Passing it was +/- 5 to decide who got the tally
Special teams was more of "general feeling" by me, but there were probably only a few things worth arguing about who "won".
I also tallied explosive plays.
For offense:
TD
10+ run
15+ pass
3rd down conversion (or 4th if they went for it)
For defense:
Turnover
T.F.L. or sack
3rd or 4th down stop
If a team got an "explosive", they did not get a tally for a regular "win"
Also, penalties that included a loss of down were a win for the non-penalized team
Here is the raw data:
PATRIOTS
1. Offense
-27 plays won
-11 explosives
2. Defense
-19 plays won
-7 explosives
3. Special Teams
-11 plays won
-0 explosives
RAVENS
1. Offense
-22 plays won
-12 explosives
2. Defense
-22 plays won
-11 explosives
3. Special Teams
-11 plays won
-2 explosives
It all seems very even, but I found a few things of note:
1. Almost half of the Patriot's offensive explosives came on their last drive (couple big gainers and a few 4th down conversions equated to half of their total-----also, I gave the offense, not the defense, an explosive for forcing Ed Reed to fumble)
2. The Ravens found ways to give the Patriots consistent "wins" on offense (27 total), without giving up explosives, AND getting explosives of their own..........they would let them work it a little, and then out execute whenever 3rd down came up......perhaps a defense that is "bend, but don't break" is not mutually exclusive with a defense that can garnish "explosives"
3. Over half of the Patriot's defensive explosives came on the last two drives (excluding the Hail Mary series).
4. Related to number 3, the Ravens amassed 0 explosives, and only 1 offensive win on their last two drives (again, excluding the Hail Mary series).
5. Explosive seem to be like getting strikes in bowling: you get more points if they are bunched together. 5 strikes in a row is worth more than a strike every other frame with equal pin falls for the remaining frames.
The Patriots definitely grouped more "explosives" together in the 4th quarter than the Ravens did, making up for the fact the Ravens were more consistently explosive in the first 3 quarters.
Although, per our bowling analogy, it seems it is more important to have your explosives bunched together than spread out----at least in this game.
Not a perfect system-----a 15 yard pass play is counted the same as a 60 yard bomb for a TD-------but for mostly evenly matched teams (which every team is in the NFL---talent-wise at least), I think the number of explosive plays will not belie themselves because of the quality of the explosive play.......although there certainly are those games which are anomalies.
Any other coaches use some type of value system in order to study the game?
My system:
Offense gains 3+ yards on a run, they win
Defense stops them for 2- yards on a run, they win
Passing it was +/- 5 to decide who got the tally
Special teams was more of "general feeling" by me, but there were probably only a few things worth arguing about who "won".
I also tallied explosive plays.
For offense:
TD
10+ run
15+ pass
3rd down conversion (or 4th if they went for it)
For defense:
Turnover
T.F.L. or sack
3rd or 4th down stop
If a team got an "explosive", they did not get a tally for a regular "win"
Also, penalties that included a loss of down were a win for the non-penalized team
Here is the raw data:
PATRIOTS
1. Offense
-27 plays won
-11 explosives
2. Defense
-19 plays won
-7 explosives
3. Special Teams
-11 plays won
-0 explosives
RAVENS
1. Offense
-22 plays won
-12 explosives
2. Defense
-22 plays won
-11 explosives
3. Special Teams
-11 plays won
-2 explosives
It all seems very even, but I found a few things of note:
1. Almost half of the Patriot's offensive explosives came on their last drive (couple big gainers and a few 4th down conversions equated to half of their total-----also, I gave the offense, not the defense, an explosive for forcing Ed Reed to fumble)
2. The Ravens found ways to give the Patriots consistent "wins" on offense (27 total), without giving up explosives, AND getting explosives of their own..........they would let them work it a little, and then out execute whenever 3rd down came up......perhaps a defense that is "bend, but don't break" is not mutually exclusive with a defense that can garnish "explosives"
3. Over half of the Patriot's defensive explosives came on the last two drives (excluding the Hail Mary series).
4. Related to number 3, the Ravens amassed 0 explosives, and only 1 offensive win on their last two drives (again, excluding the Hail Mary series).
5. Explosive seem to be like getting strikes in bowling: you get more points if they are bunched together. 5 strikes in a row is worth more than a strike every other frame with equal pin falls for the remaining frames.
The Patriots definitely grouped more "explosives" together in the 4th quarter than the Ravens did, making up for the fact the Ravens were more consistently explosive in the first 3 quarters.
Although, per our bowling analogy, it seems it is more important to have your explosives bunched together than spread out----at least in this game.
Not a perfect system-----a 15 yard pass play is counted the same as a 60 yard bomb for a TD-------but for mostly evenly matched teams (which every team is in the NFL---talent-wise at least), I think the number of explosive plays will not belie themselves because of the quality of the explosive play.......although there certainly are those games which are anomalies.
Any other coaches use some type of value system in order to study the game?
