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Post by groundchuck on Nov 15, 2018 21:30:24 GMT -6
This scenario happened in the state semi-final tonight. I want to get your take on it. -Down 23-15, under 3:00 to play 4th quarter. -You're near midfield. -You pick up all but the final 18" needed for a first down, but there is also a penalty.
-If you accept the penalty it leaves you 3rd down and 4. -If you decline the penalty it leaves your 4th and 18". -You have not exactly owned the LOS in the game so there is doubt you could pick up the foot and a half in one play. A QB sneak is not a no-brainer call here.
What do you do? Take one crack at 18" or two cracks at 4-yards?
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Post by cqmiller on Nov 15, 2018 22:09:38 GMT -6
If I have a dude at QB or WR, take 2 chances from 4...
If they have more talent, or I don't have a dude at those 2 spots, take a chance on 1 play for 18"...
I'm a firm believer that more plays favors the better athletic team, less plays favors the least athletic team.
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Post by fantom on Nov 15, 2018 22:55:05 GMT -6
If you're not confident that you can knock them off of the ball I like 3rd and 4.
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Post by Fishbone on Nov 16, 2018 3:05:11 GMT -6
Accept the penalty.
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Post by gccwolverine on Nov 16, 2018 5:22:30 GMT -6
If youre acceptimg the penalty you better be going pass pass if you take it and run it on 3rd down you should be fired.
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Post by coachd5085 on Nov 16, 2018 5:57:23 GMT -6
If I have a dude at QB or WR, take 2 chances from 4... If they have more talent, or I don't have a dude at those 2 spots, take a chance on 1 play for 18"... I'm a firm believer that more plays favors the better athletic team, less plays favors the least athletic team. I agree with that philosophy too, but in this case the situations are not equal so it doesn't fit as nicely into the mindset.
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Post by freezeoption on Nov 16, 2018 6:02:36 GMT -6
if you don't own the line you got one down for all the donuts, I take the penalty and it gives me two choices and come back to my best two plays that have been successful, you got time with 3 min,
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Post by CS on Nov 16, 2018 6:07:04 GMT -6
I guess it would also depend on your offenses style. We are 98% run and a little over a foot looks good to me even if we only get 1 down. Chances are I would be right back there making the same call again
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Post by coachd5085 on Nov 16, 2018 6:08:06 GMT -6
if you don't own the line you got one down for all the donuts, I take the penalty and it gives me two choices and come back to my best two plays that have been successful, you got time with 3 min, Your best two PASS PLAYS that have been successful. I suppose one could go deep down the rabbit hole of game theory and suggest that by taking the 3rd and 4, you put some doubt into the defense about the play being a run, and therefore it might increase the chance of success, but as someone mentioned earlier, if you back the ball up 4 yards and then try a running play, you are going to really be under the microscope.
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Post by Defcord on Nov 16, 2018 7:10:57 GMT -6
if you don't own the line you got one down for all the donuts, I take the penalty and it gives me two choices and come back to my best two plays that have been successful, you got time with 3 min, Your best two PASS PLAYS that have been successful. I suppose one could go deep down the rabbit hole of game theory and suggest that by taking the 3rd and 4, you put some doubt into the defense about the play being a run, and therefore it might increase the chance of success, but as someone mentioned earlier, if you back the ball up 4 yards and then try a running play, you are going to really be under the microscope. I don't understand why backing the ball up and running on 3rd down is an issue. It gives you a chance to run any play you want on 3rd down and then still pass it on 4th down. I am the same as someone posted above. If I have an edge in personnel, I will take the two plays. If they have the edge give me the 18 inches and we are going to give our best player the ball and see how things shake out.
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Post by freezeoption on Nov 16, 2018 9:59:19 GMT -6
Sprint out then you got options but 3 min is plenty of time doesn't have to be a pass
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Post by mkuempel on Nov 16, 2018 10:02:48 GMT -6
I really like the idea of having two chances to get 4 yards.
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Post by groundchuck on Nov 16, 2018 10:51:52 GMT -6
I spoke with somebody today and they said "if you can't get the foot and a half you need you don't deserve to win the game." I like that mentality and I probably would have declined the penalty and gone for it on 4th down.
Nobody (I think) had mentioned well what happens if on the 3rd and 4 YOU screw up and your team jumps off-sides or you call a pass and give up a sack, or they stuff you and now it's 4th and 4 (or worse).
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Post by bobgoodman on Nov 16, 2018 11:41:47 GMT -6
Depending heavily on the element of surprise, I decline the penalty & take a deep shot on 4th & short. If it works, I'm a genius; if it fails, blame the players.
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Post by fantom on Nov 16, 2018 12:10:55 GMT -6
I spoke with somebody today and they said "if you can't get the foot and a half you need you don't deserve to win the game." I like that mentality and I probably would have declined the penalty and gone for it on 4th down. Nobody (I think) had mentioned well what happens if on the 3rd and 4 YOU screw up and your team jumps off-sides or you call a pass and give up a sack, or they stuff you and now it's 4th and 4 (or worse). . "Deserve's" got nothing to do with it. Does it give you a better chance of winning?
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Post by CoachMikeJudy on Nov 16, 2018 12:18:54 GMT -6
Accept the penalty. 3&4 with two downs to go...I'll take it.
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Post by mnike23 on Nov 16, 2018 12:20:07 GMT -6
If youre acceptimg the penalty you better be going pass pass if you take it and run it on 3rd down you should be fired. seriously? pass for 2 consecutive plays, im debating firing myself with that thinking. if you cant get 2 yards running the ball on both plays, then you should be fired. run the ball on 3rd, and with some success, run it again, stuffed at the line, play action pass. but no chance in hell im calling back to back best passes. and I like to throw the ball!!!!! all honesty, im taking my 4th down chance on under a yard, best player the ball in his hands, somehow. toss sweep, jet sweep, power, counter, zone read, triple option, dart, buck sweep, counter criss cross, power read, something with the best in our program with the ball, get me my 1 yard. run where they aint!
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Post by junior6589 on Nov 16, 2018 12:21:21 GMT -6
If you can run a good Qb sneak you take the 4th and inches.
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Post by coachd5085 on Nov 16, 2018 12:49:25 GMT -6
If youre acceptimg the penalty you better be going pass pass if you take it and run it on 3rd down you should be fired. seriously? pass for 2 consecutive plays, im debating firing myself with that thinking. if you cant get 2 yards running the ball on both plays, then you should be fired. run the ball on 3rd, and with some success, run it again, stuffed at the line, play action pass. but no chance in hell im calling back to back best passes. and I like to throw the ball!!!!! all honesty, im taking my 4th down chance on under a yard, best player the ball in his hands, somehow. toss sweep, jet sweep, power, counter, zone read, triple option, dart, buck sweep, counter criss cross, power read, something with the best in our program with the ball, get me my 1 yard. run where they aint! I think the point is that if you choose to make the line of gain 4 yards instead of 18", and then try to run and get those 4 yards, that doesn't really compute.
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Post by coachd5085 on Nov 16, 2018 12:50:53 GMT -6
I really like the idea of having two chances to get 4 yards. better than one chance to get 1/2 of a yard?
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Post by Defcord on Nov 16, 2018 13:43:06 GMT -6
seriously? pass for 2 consecutive plays, im debating firing myself with that thinking. if you cant get 2 yards running the ball on both plays, then you should be fired. run the ball on 3rd, and with some success, run it again, stuffed at the line, play action pass. but no chance in hell im calling back to back best passes. and I like to throw the ball!!!!! all honesty, im taking my 4th down chance on under a yard, best player the ball in his hands, somehow. toss sweep, jet sweep, power, counter, zone read, triple option, dart, buck sweep, counter criss cross, power read, something with the best in our program with the ball, get me my 1 yard. run where they aint! I think the point is that if you choose to make the line of gain 4 yards instead of 18", and then try to run and get those 4 yards, that doesn't really compute. I think it's a really good question by the OP and I really don't think there is a wrong answer. Unless of course, the decision you make doesn't work, then you are definitely going to be charged with taking the wrong alternative. If our head coach chose either option, I would have no problem with. If you took the penalty, the case for running it on 3rd down would be: A. You might get the first down right away B. You don't get the first down but you get a short gain 2-3 yards and you face a 4th and really short anyway C. Some sort of mistake happens (ex: bad snap, mesh point issue, etc.) and you still have an opportunity to run another play for a first down. D. You put the added pressure of defending two short yardage downs on the opponents We averaged 6.8 yards a carry this season but there were times we made a mistake or the other team made a good call and we would have a negative play. I don't know the odds but it feels like the extra down gives us two legitimate shots to make the first down.
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Post by mkuempel on Nov 16, 2018 14:37:26 GMT -6
I really like the idea of having two chances to get 4 yards. better than one chance to get 1/2 of a yard? Yep, especially after a penalty. I actually really like my chances of picking up the 1st on 3rd down, in the middle of the field, my playbook is more open based on my offensive philosophy. On 4th and 18" I'm probably seeing a ton of pressure and cover 0, if I'm not owning the LOS, that worries me a lot. The distance on 4th is less of a factor for me than it just being 4th down, they're HS kids, even if they're studs, crazy things happen and I'd just rather have two shots than one, just my opinion.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2018 15:58:45 GMT -6
This scenario happened in the state semi-final tonight. I want to get your take on it. -Down 23-15, under 3:00 to play 4th quarter. -You're near midfield. -You pick up all but the final 18" needed for a first down, but there is also a penalty. -If you accept the penalty it leaves you 3rd down and 4. -If you decline the penalty it leaves your 4th and 18". -You have not exactly owned the LOS in the game so there is doubt you could pick up the foot and a half in one play. A QB sneak is not a no-brainer call here. What do you do? Take one crack at 18" or two cracks at 4-yards? Two cracks at 4 yards since it's still a manageable distance. Two chances mitigates the risk of doing something you've presumably done all night. You miss on the first attempt or even lose yards, you can fight again. This question really boils down to whether you'd trade a full down for 2.5 yards. That's a bad investment, IMO.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2018 16:01:52 GMT -6
If youre acceptimg the penalty you better be going pass pass if you take it and run it on 3rd down you should be fired. Why? It's 4 down territory anyway. If you get 2.5 yards on 3rd down, you're at least no worse off than you were before. Out of context, I'd consider a d@mn draw or a bootleg, depending on what's been happening in the game.
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Post by chi5hi on Nov 16, 2018 18:04:38 GMT -6
Personally, I don't like having to pay for the same real estate, twice.
Remember, taking the penalty not only backs you up...you also lose the time off the clock! A penalty doesn't get that time back.
You're a championship caliber team, otherwise you wouldn't be there. Play like a champion and get the foot and a half.
The final game of the season (and this COULD BE it) is not the time to overthink things.
How would you feel if on 3rd down you got 3 yards...and then got stuffed on 4th? I might think that my call lost the game for the kids.
On the other hand...run the first play you installed back in the Spring...prolly Power-O! Back on that 1st day, you told your guys that this was their "...must have..." run. Let's see if they believed you!
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Post by Chris Clement on Nov 16, 2018 18:45:18 GMT -6
For reference, 4th & 18" is about a 60-65% situation on average. If you're struggling on the line that moves it a couple percent, no more than five percentage points - people grossly overestimate the variance in teams. 3rd & 4 is a good bit lower than that, but if you're committed to going for 4th down then it increases your chances a lot. With the amount of slop in the numbers its kind of a push but here are some considerations:
If you really think your line is bad why do you think giving them two chances to be bad is a better option? If you choose to take the penalty are you doing so because you think it's the best option to win or because it puts distance between the decision and the outcome, i.e. If it goes wrong it's less likely people will connect your decision to the failure?
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Post by coachd5085 on Nov 16, 2018 19:11:08 GMT -6
If youre acceptimg the penalty you better be going pass pass if you take it and run it on 3rd down you should be fired. Why? It's 4 down territory anyway. If you get 2.5 yards on 3rd down, you're at least no worse off than you were before. Out of context, I'd consider a d@mn draw or a bootleg, depending on what's been happening in the game. If you got 2.5 yards on 4th down option, you picked up the first down. The reason I tend to agree with gccwolverine on this is that it boils down to trying to "successfully" executing a play. Most pass plays (save for certain screens) are going to pick up more than 4 yards when caught simply by design. The play is either going to be incomplete or it will pick up 4+ yards (success). A run is a bit different in that it could be stoned, picked up a yard, pick up a yard and a half, pick up 2 yards etc.
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Post by coachd5085 on Nov 16, 2018 19:12:39 GMT -6
If youre acceptimg the penalty you better be going pass pass if you take it and run it on 3rd down you should be fired. Why? It's 4 down territory anyway. If you get 2.5 yards on 3rd down, you're at least no worse off than you were before. Out of context, I'd consider a d@mn draw or a bootleg, depending on what's been happening in the game. dbl post.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2018 20:28:24 GMT -6
Why? It's 4 down territory anyway. If you get 2.5 yards on 3rd down, you're at least no worse off than you were before. Out of context, I'd consider a d@mn draw or a bootleg, depending on what's been happening in the game. If you got 2.5 yards on 4th down option, you picked up the first down. The reason I tend to agree with gccwolverine on this is that it boils down to trying to "successfully" executing a play. Most pass plays (save for certain screens) are going to pick up more than 4 yards when caught simply by design. The play is either going to be incomplete or it will pick up 4+ yards (success). A run is a bit different in that it could be stoned, picked up a yard, pick up a yard and a half, pick up 2 yards etc. But the thing is that on 4th down, the defense is very likely going to be loaded up in a short yardage front and probably playing Cov. 0 and blitzing. On 3rd and 4... well, they could do a lot of things. I don't know this opponent. They could be bringing a ton of pressure there, too, or they could be so afraid of blowing the championship game in the closing minutes that they play it conservative and drop 8. I also don't know the context with my own team, except that they had evidently been struggling at the LOS. That's going to make the short yardage run even more difficult. On a short yardage pass, which has a significant chance of being incomplete...you only get one shot at this. Honestly, there are too many variables here to make a cut and dried decision, but I'd be more inclined to take the two plays. The odds of gaining 4 yards on a single offensive play (run or pass) on 3rd down is pretty decent and if you don't, you get another try. The odds of converting a 4th and short against a championship-level defense in the final minutes of a semi-final game after you've been getting your tails handed to you up front? Not so much. Just IMHO, of course.
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Post by coachd5085 on Nov 17, 2018 6:07:20 GMT -6
Why does everyone keep assuming that groundchuck 's statement that means that the OL has been getting their butts kicked all game. I read it as simply that you haven't been blowing them off the ball all night (which makes sense when you look at the score) and it isn't a 100% sure thing. That doesn't mean it is completely off the board. groundchuck can you clarify the scenario a bit (although as a thought exercise, it probably works better to consider different levels of success)? When you are saying they aren't exactly owning the line, are you saying chances are they are going to get stoned, or just that it isn't a sure thing they will knock the DL back on any given play?
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