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Post by cowapakid on Sept 19, 2016 15:35:23 GMT -6
Has anyone seen any data or research on accepting penalties or declining them when it comes to an offense receiving a ten yard penalty but throwing an incomplete pass as well. Would you rather have your defense face 2nd & 10 or 1st & 20. Having a debate in our office. Also, does your decision making change when you have the same decision for 2nd & 20 or 3rd & 10?
I realize field position matters if playing to hold off a FG late or keeping them pinned so this is more of a general question. For the purpose of the poll let's say they're on their own 35 and it's the first quarter, 0-0.
Would like to hear any input or philosophies on this.
Thanks,
KJ
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Post by fantom on Sept 19, 2016 15:45:06 GMT -6
My think would be based on how explosive they are.
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Post by carookie on Sept 19, 2016 15:55:18 GMT -6
Without having done the freakanomics research on this I would assume that accepting the penalty and making it 1st and 20 would be the way to go. Assuming they punt on 4th down then 1st and 20 gives them 3 plays to earn 20 yards, meaning they have to get 6.7 yards per play; if they have 2nd and 10 then they have to only get 5 yards a play. In essence, if they don't get 10 yards on that first play then you are in a better position.
Now, as has been stated already it depends on what type of team they are. If they are a team that just takes shot down field in the hope that they eventually hit; ie low completion pct. but high pct of passes and high pct of yards per completion, then you may want to limit their opportunities to hit that big play, but I don't really see that very much.
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Post by dytmook on Sept 19, 2016 16:51:05 GMT -6
More than likely 1st and 20.
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Post by nhsehs on Sept 19, 2016 17:10:11 GMT -6
My think would be based on how explosive they are. This is where I'd side. It's hard enough to stop some of the folks we play with 4 downs. Don't want to give them another one. |
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Post by hunhdisciple on Sept 19, 2016 17:34:09 GMT -6
It depends on several things.
How explosive are they?
Where are they on the field?
How likely will they go for it on 4th?
What's the score and time remaining?
With all that said, I'd lean towards 1st and 20. So many guys have a tendency to panic if they get down in the chains by that much.
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Post by CS on Sept 19, 2016 17:48:44 GMT -6
Any chance to put a team behind the chains is a good one. It limits the play calls an OC can make. Explosive or not they still are staring at 20 yards and maybe you can win the mental game.
If they are so good on offense that they can convert a 1st and 20 with out a busted play by us then the down and distance really doesn't matter.
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Post by poundtherock1 on Sept 19, 2016 17:48:53 GMT -6
Getting 5 twice is easier than getting 5 four times.
Getting 10 once is easier than getting 10 twice.
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Post by realdawg on Sept 19, 2016 17:54:25 GMT -6
Depends on field position. Near the goal line I'm backing them up.
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Post by carookie on Sept 19, 2016 17:56:04 GMT -6
Not to pirate the thread, but I think 1st and 15 or 2nd and 10 would be a more difficult decision to choose from. Does the five yards of field position balance out the extra play?
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Post by dubber on Sept 19, 2016 18:38:11 GMT -6
Not to pirate the thread, but I think 1st and 15 or 2nd and 10 would be a more difficult decision to choose from. Does the five yards of field position balance out the extra play? I'm taking the down in this situation. In the former situation, I'll take 1st and 20. |
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Post by ahall005 on Sept 19, 2016 19:17:16 GMT -6
Getting 5 twice is easier than getting 5 four times. Getting 10 once is easier than getting 10 twice. This is the way I think about it unless time is a factor |
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agame
Junior Member
Posts: 378
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Post by agame on Sept 20, 2016 1:22:01 GMT -6
Push em back take the 1st and 20
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Post by funkfriss on Sept 20, 2016 7:28:51 GMT -6
Has anyone seen any data or research on accepting penalties or declining them when it comes to an offense receiving a ten yard penalty but throwing an incomplete pass as well. Would you rather have your defense face 2nd & 10 or 1st & 20. Having a debate in our office. Also, does your decision making change when you have the same decision for 2nd & 20 or 3rd & 10? I realize field position matters if playing to hold off a FG late or keeping them pinned so this is more of a general question. For the purpose of the poll let's say they're on their own 35 and it's the first quarter, 0-0. Would like to hear any input or philosophies on this. Thanks, KJ Yards per play for 1st down (assuming they will punt on 4th) 1st and 10: 3.33 1st and 20: 6.67 2nd and 10: 5.0 2nd and 20: 10.0 3rd and 10: 10.0 So, in a vacuum and based purely on the numbers it would make more sense to take them back to 1st and 20. Deciding between 2nd and 20 and 3rd and 10 is a wash and probably depends on your confidence in your defense vs. their offense. I would lean towards declining the penalty and giving them one less chance for an explosive play. Yards per play for 1st down (in 4 down territory) 1st and 10: 2.5 1st and 20: 5.0 2nd and 10: 3.33 2nd and 20: 6.67 3rd and 10: 5.0 If you're in 4 down territory (or playing that Arkansas school that never punts) you would want to send them back in both scenarios. |
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