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Post by wildcat on Mar 11, 2006 7:15:40 GMT -6
If Vince Young was a 6-5, 240 pound white kid who ran a 4.5 40 and piled up all of those gaudy collegiate stats and had one of the single greatest individual performances in a national championship game all time, there would be NO QUESTIONS at all about his ability and future in the NFL. Teams would be DROOLING over this kid.
However, because he is a black guy playing a predominately white position, there are all of these BS questions about his intelligence, his throwing motion, and his ability.
Vince Young MIGHT be a complete bust. However, he has EARNED THE RIGHT to get the opportunity to fail that would be accorded to EVERY white QB in a similar position.
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Post by brophy on Mar 11, 2006 13:39:56 GMT -6
If Vince Young was a 6-5, 240 pound white kid who ran a 4.5 40 and piled up all of those gaudy collegiate stats and had one of the single greatest individual performances in a national championship game all time, there would be NO QUESTIONS at all about his ability and future in the NFL. Teams would be DROOLING over this kid. However, because he is a black guy playing a predominately white position, there are all of these BS questions about his intelligence, his throwing motion, and his ability. that would NEVER happen....oh wait a minute....it did...his name was Alex Smith - where did he get drafted? I agree with this post - I just know too many people that are quick to discredit QBs based on their skin color. |
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Post by spreadattack on Mar 13, 2006 15:40:55 GMT -6
Not totally sure on the #1 pick. I love Vince Young, but situation for a QB like him is key. Reggie Bush is exciting and dynamic, but I agree with airman in the sense of I wouldn't expect him to carry your team like some kind of Earl Campbell... Anyway, I read a great paper about a year ago that someone sent me where some economists studied the NFL draft. The basic conclusion is that (unsurprisingly) NFL teams overvalue high draft picks, both in terms of what they would trade to get them and what they pay the players who are drafted in those slots. The first pick almost always comes out on the negative end of value. This article helps reiterate to me what an amazing book Moneyball is. The best sports book of the last ten years, bar none. The important thing there is not necessarily that they have the best method, but they at least have one. Anyway, I'll quote from a website discussing the article, but here is a link to the direct thing (long and fairly technical) here: faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/%7Ecadem/bio/massey%20&%20thaler%20-%20loser%27s%20curse.pdf". They did a lot of work quantifying the performance of players selected at different positions in the draft (i.e first pick, second pick, etc). You'll have to see the detailed study as to their methodology, but it struck me as pretty reasonable. They also looked at the cost or salary by draft pick. Combining the two got this curve:  "The "surplus" line is the difference of the curves, ie performance value minus compensation cost. Since compensation costs fall faster in the late first round (the first round is 30 picks) and into the second round than does performance, the surplus value peaks in the second round. This does not mean the best players can be found in picks 25-75, but it does mean that the best values can be found there. Since the NFL works under a salary cap that equalizes total compensation, the best team should be the one that consistently picks these value players (this is different than the baseball / NY Yankees model, where there is no cap, and maximum performance presumably comes from getting the top players, irregardless of salary). If this is correct, teams should be willing to straight-up trade a pick in the top 15 for a pick around 35. However, in reality, they can usually trade a pick in the top 15 for two or more picks in the 25-75 ranges, which should make the trade a no-brainer. Interestingly, the market for picks is actually going the other way:  "The researches studied hundreds of past draft day trades of picks to generate these curves. It basically says that early picks are valued exponentially higher than even late first round picks, and this preference for very early picks has actually increased in the past few years. This curve says that a #5 pick might be worth at least 3 and possibly many more picks in the 25-75 band." |
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Post by brophy on Mar 13, 2006 15:44:02 GMT -6
footballoutsiders.com has a bunch of statistical mumbo jumbo to analyze trends in the game....i think these graphs may have originated from there.. www.drafthistory.com has some good articles too |
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Post by spreadattack on Mar 13, 2006 16:08:04 GMT -6
The paper was done by Richard Thaler and Robert Massey, economists from the University of Chicago. Footballoutsiders was given permission to repost it I believe. Footballoutsiders is a great idea but I've not found it all that useful--too focused on fantasy football and all that. The future of football is going to be the development of a more and more scientific approach. The key is that it will not displace the "art" of the game--it still comes down to connecting with the kids and conveying information. Even playcalling, as Charlie Weis says, is more art than science, but we'll need to get smarter. This article from Slate does a nice job talking about Belichek and some of the things he did. Also, people should check out the scouting report that has been floating around of Denver under Shanahan against the Colts. It's excellent www.slate.com/id/2092863/ |
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Post by cqmiller on Mar 13, 2006 16:16:17 GMT -6
I can see how some of you might say that "If Vince Young were white, then he would go #1"
However, I don't think that Vince Young will be as effective in the NFL as he was in college. Even if he doesn't go #1, WHAT NFL TEAM will allow him to do what he did in college? He will not be allowed to run the ball 20+ times a game, and take on LB's like he was able to at Texas. Coaches are going to tell him to slide, and not to run so they protect their investment.
Alex Smith had better passing #'s than Vince Young did in college, and the last time I checked, it took Alex 10 games to throw 1 TD pass in the NFL.
If I'm the Texans, then I would TRADE TRADE TRADE the pick, and get an Offensive Lineman & the #4 pick from the Jets. Then I would draft Debrickishaw Ferguson. They have a good RB & QB, but they need an OL to help out on the Offense. And they need defense.
Then the Jets can take either Leinart or Young, whichever one fits their sytem the best (Leinart probably) as the #1 pick. Then whoever wants to trade up to the #2 spot to get Young before the Titans pick up Young can do so.
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Post by wildcat on Mar 13, 2006 18:26:10 GMT -6
I can see how some of you might say that "If Vince Young were white, then he would go #1" However, I don't think that Vince Young will be as effective in the NFL as he was in college. Even if he doesn't go #1, WHAT NFL TEAM will allow him to do what he did in college? He will not be allowed to run the ball 20+ times a game, and take on LB's like he was able to at Texas. Coaches are going to tell him to slide, and not to run so they protect their investment. This is exactly my point... No WHITE QB would have to endure ANY of those questions (style of play, too much running, can't handle a pro offense, etc, etc). Brophy made a GREAT point with Smith. His style of play in college was very similar to Young's, yet there was none of these questions about "he won't be able to do that in the pros" or "he won't be able to do this in the pros". If Young was a big, strong, fast WHITE kid (like Alex Smith), that is all that would matter. There would be NO QUESTIONS at all about these issues. I'll give you another example...last year, there was a huge lovefest with Brett Favre even though he had a horrible year and made some gawdawful decisions that cost his team a couple of wins. However, how was Favre treated? He was labeled as a "gunslinger" and "a great competitor". The press fawned all over Favre even though he was horrible. Now, consider for a second what would have happened if Favre was a BLACK QB and played that way...He would have been labeled as being "selfish" or "uncoachable". There is a HUGE double standard in the NFL when it comes to considering African-Americans for leadership positions like QB or head coach. Young may fail. He might not be any good. However, he deserves to be given the SAME opportunity to fail that any white kid in the same position would be accorded. |
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Post by brophy on Mar 14, 2006 7:25:48 GMT -6
I'll give you another example...last year, there was a huge lovefest with Brett Favre even though he had a horrible year and made some gawdawful decisions that cost his team a couple of wins. However, how was Favre treated? He was labeled as a "gunslinger" and "a great competitor". The press fawned all over Favre even though he was horrible. Now, consider for a second what would have happened if Favre was a BLACK QB and played that way...He would have been labeled as being "selfish" or "uncoachable". Look at how the press deals with Steve McNair....but then again, I hate the Packers....  |
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Post by wildcat on Mar 14, 2006 9:09:54 GMT -6
Brophy -
That is a great picture in your sig line! I LOVED that show when I was a kid.
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Boltar
Sophomore Member
Posts: 208
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Post by Boltar on Mar 15, 2006 12:43:20 GMT -6
I don't think there's any question (IMO) that Bush should be the first pick. With him you get a 4 position player. RB, WR, KO returner, and Punt Returner. A lot of people forget the Bush is only 20 yrs old and in the 3 yrs he played at USC, he gained approximately 25 lbs. I'm sure another 10 lbs in the NFL is in his future. Plus, Bush doesn't get hit square very much which takes away from the pounding. As far as his intelligence goes, he was a 4.0 student in high school and will finish his degree in college. He's never been in trouble for anything that I know of and he's a team PR guys wet dream. The guy has been a star his entire life and knows how to handle it.
Vince Young is a great player BUT the NFL has a system. That system says we pay you $ 20 million to hand the ball off, throw TD's and not get HIT! Vicks had several years to fit into that system and IMO is still struggling. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see the NFL go the way of college (QB's running the option) but there's too much money involved. That's why the NFL made so many rules to over protect the QB. I hope he works out but I think he's fighting an uphill battle.
I had a kid get drafted by the Bills last year and I talked to him about the Wonderlick test. He told me the majority of the questions were along the lines of "a tray has 9 apples and 3 get eaten, how many are left?" I have to believe there's a little more to it than that. He scored a 39. Young's reported to have scored a 6 and a 16, that has to concern some people.
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Post by wildcat on Mar 15, 2006 12:59:57 GMT -6
Vince Young is a great player BUT the NFL has a system. That system says we pay you $ 20 million to hand the ball off, throw TD's and not get HIT! Vicks had several years to fit into that system and IMO is still struggling. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see the NFL go the way of college (QB's running the option) but there's too much money involved. That's why the NFL made so many rules to over protect the QB. I hope he works out but I think he's fighting an uphill battle. I had a kid get drafted by the Bills last year and I talked to him about the Wonderlick test. He told me the majority of the questions were along the lines of "a tray has 9 apples and 3 get eaten, how many are left?" I have to believe there's a little more to it than that. He scored a 39. Young's reported to have scored a 6 and a 16, that has to concern some people. Alex Smith was an "option" QB, too, but very few people disputed the 49ers taking him at #1 overall. Gee, what's the difference between Smith and Young? Oh yeah, the race thing! The BEST football player we have ever had come through our program got a 16 on his ACT. He went on to play four years of college ball and was an all-American his senior year. So Vince Young got a low score on the test. So what? Maybe he doesn't test well. Maybe he was unprepared for it. The POINT is that Vince Young has earned the right to be treated as a legitimate #1 pick without all of these BS questions that no white kid in a similar position would have to deal with. |
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Post by airman on Mar 15, 2006 14:56:29 GMT -6
vince young would be the number one pick if he stayed and played college next year.
as typcial in todays media driven world, people get hyped up. he is hyped up for the national championship game.
why people are not sure on him, shotgun qb typically do not do that well in the nfl. why, because when you are undercenter the rush is near you. the shot gun gives you a buffer zone.
you do nto see much shotgun in the nfl because the offensive family tree is like those in kentucky, it does nto branch. the nfl is a good old boy club. they are nto going to venture too far into uncharted waters.
just how it is,
oh, a 6-5 240 lb white kid who runs a 4.5 40. never happen, he woudl be converted to tight end in college.
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Boltar
Sophomore Member
Posts: 208
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Post by Boltar on Mar 17, 2006 14:57:42 GMT -6
As I said, the NFL has a system. BUT, ultimately the system has one goal, to win! While there may be some people out there who view a black QB (in the media) as not "smart" enough, the coaches would play one of the 7 Dwarfs if they thought it could make them win games.
In the NFL system, the QB is not the best athlete on the team. Alex Smith can't play another position. Vince Young can play several positions (IMO) thus all of the "what if's" and "maybes". Scott Frost from Nebraska was a freaking stud in college as an option QB and never even got a shot to play QB in the NFL. They (NFL) mande him a safety. While I agree the media makes a big deal about it, I don't think the NFL does.
By the way, my ex player who was drafted is a black man.
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Post by cqmiller on Mar 17, 2006 15:31:49 GMT -6
ALL THE SAME QUESTIONS WERE BEING ASKED OF ALEX SMITH LAST YEAR!!!! Only exception was the intelligence question, because Alex Smith didn't get that low on the Wonderlick. Everyone questioned his throwing power, and his ability to play under center in an NFL system. Texas' system is a college system, just like the option. That is why all the good option QB's in college play WR in the NFL.
ALL the people said that Matt Leinart should have come out last year and he would have been the #1 pick INSTEAD of Alex Smith. People don't wanna take Vince Young #1 because in the NFL, he will NEVER be allowed to run the ball 20 times a game. He will be forced to do what they are trying to get Michael Vick to do...Stay in the pocket, or else slide when anyone gets near you. This takes away the BEST thing that Vince has going for him: his rushing power.
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Post by coachdawhip on Mar 17, 2006 19:23:11 GMT -6
What did Vince Young get on the Wonderlic because I didn't know the results were out?
Bush is the best player hands down.
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Post by cqmiller on Mar 18, 2006 20:58:44 GMT -6
All the ESPN analysts acted like he scored very low for a QB. I have heard 9-12 for the score, but haven't seen the exact numbers.
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Post by wildcat on Mar 18, 2006 21:34:54 GMT -6
cq -
I think the original report was a "6".
BTW - great quote in your sig line - I have a poster with that in our weight room!
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Post by coachdawhip on May 2, 2006 22:45:49 GMT -6
And who was right?
Boy none of us saw this one coming
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