Post by dubber on Nov 13, 2015 14:02:25 GMT -6
There are certain topics that most regular contributors on this site will agree on.....
Things like player accountability (for it) and wholesale scheme changes to fit this years quarterback (against it) we all fall into the same camp.
When it comes to statistical analytics and football, however, warring camps can be established pretty quickly.
Just like generations before them, as the Millennial generation (age 30 and under) begins to enter the workforce, they are clashing with the established guard of baby boomers (age 50 and older).
Part of the issue is the manner in which RESPECT is garnered for each group.
The Baby Boomers, raised by the badasrses who won WWII, were taught the respect is given to those with experience. Those older and who have been doing it longer should have our respect and deference.
The Millennials, raised in a more liberalized society, were taught respect is earned through verification. Those whose advice is based on measurable quantities, if the logic is acceptable, become the respected.
At the nasty end of either spectrum, you end up with Baby Boomers who hate these disrespectful little basterds who haven't earned their stripes, and with Millennials who see an old, dogmatic guard that needs replaced.
Statistics are often a battleground for this divide, with the Millennials yearning for some scientific verification of the plan, and Baby Boomers wanting to lean on hard earned experience.
"So, uh, that's great dubber, what's the point of this thread?"
I'm glad you asked.
I think at the more reasonable ends of both spectrums is a synthesis that can lift us all up. (Cue the Josh Groban)
Experience can often know something, without being able to the how and why behind it.
For familiar with Malcom Gladwell's BLINK, this will make sense. For those not, read this: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blink_(book)
On our staff, our DC is the senior man. He has over 25 years of experience. He watches the least amount of film on staff (save for our own......he spends 4 hours every week doing stats on the previous game), but he has a knack for call the appropriate blitz or trap coverage at the perfect time.
I asked him how he knows when to do this, to which I get a shoulder shrug and a "felt like they were going to run that play".
What I think is happening is since he has over 4 times the coaching experience that I do is he can unknowingly dissect an offense's tendencies after a couple drives. Slight differences in body language as the quarterback approaches the LOS, etc.
Experience does yield answers to many of the "WHAT" questions, but can often miss the HOW and WHY questions.
Not only is an understanding of the WHY/HOW important to Millennials, it is also important to your players. Your players need more than "trust me" to have buy in to what you are doing. They need examples of said strategy working, and other justifications for the course of action.
Any coach over 50 feeling frustrated with today's kids as opposed to the kids they got in the early 90's?
Beyond mere player buy in, when a coach understands the WHY, there is often an improvement in application.
Back to our DC........we started to put together playlists of a team's third downs, 1st downs by hash, etc. and showing him those during game planning.
It kick started the processing so that his "BLINK" was dialed in before kickoff, instead of after a couple series.
Now, as it pertains to "using statistics to win games", etc............start off with the elder statesman's wisdom. What thing do they specifically want to see in a game, etc.
An experience coach may note that he likes offensive drives where the ball DOES NOT stay on the same hash for 3 plays. He may have some theories about why this is, but doesn't really know why.
Using statistical analysis, one may discover that a majority of a team's three and out's occur when the ball stays on the same hash.
Geometrically speaking this makes sense, as the defense can cheat on BOUNDARY curl-flat support and deploy extra men to the FIELD. They also have the ability to play outside in from a force standpoint without worries about the ball getting the FIELD flat (which is why they pay 20 million a year to handful of human beings who can rope 20 yard comebacks to the FIELD).
By analyzing play selection on instances of one hash 3 and outs, one can start to see patterns emerge on how that happens. As a simple example, maybe we are trying to get off the hash, but toss sweep is getting shutdown.
Figuring out WHY can create a gameplan to get off the hash:
*Are there too many defenders cheated to the FIELD? (if so, the actual answer may be to blast runs into the BOUNDARY until they adjust the numbers and give you a fair shake at the FIELD)
*The Force player is coming outside in like a bat out of hell to prevent us from getting the edge? (Waggle Flood)
*The DE is stunting to keep from getting reached? (Run Power to get off the hash)
So what we have is experience telling us a WHAT faster than statistical analysis would have, and statistical analysis breakdown the situations to help verify the WHAT and identify the WHY.
Taking that to your players helps sell the game plan, which in turn increases the level of execution (which is the biggest bugaboo variable in the whole thing).
Just a thought I've been formulating as I read the other threads regarding stats. Curious to see what other's experiences have been in mingling experience and statistics.
Things like player accountability (for it) and wholesale scheme changes to fit this years quarterback (against it) we all fall into the same camp.
When it comes to statistical analytics and football, however, warring camps can be established pretty quickly.
Just like generations before them, as the Millennial generation (age 30 and under) begins to enter the workforce, they are clashing with the established guard of baby boomers (age 50 and older).
Part of the issue is the manner in which RESPECT is garnered for each group.
The Baby Boomers, raised by the badasrses who won WWII, were taught the respect is given to those with experience. Those older and who have been doing it longer should have our respect and deference.
The Millennials, raised in a more liberalized society, were taught respect is earned through verification. Those whose advice is based on measurable quantities, if the logic is acceptable, become the respected.
At the nasty end of either spectrum, you end up with Baby Boomers who hate these disrespectful little basterds who haven't earned their stripes, and with Millennials who see an old, dogmatic guard that needs replaced.
Statistics are often a battleground for this divide, with the Millennials yearning for some scientific verification of the plan, and Baby Boomers wanting to lean on hard earned experience.
"So, uh, that's great dubber, what's the point of this thread?"
I'm glad you asked.
I think at the more reasonable ends of both spectrums is a synthesis that can lift us all up. (Cue the Josh Groban)
Experience can often know something, without being able to the how and why behind it.
For familiar with Malcom Gladwell's BLINK, this will make sense. For those not, read this: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blink_(book)
On our staff, our DC is the senior man. He has over 25 years of experience. He watches the least amount of film on staff (save for our own......he spends 4 hours every week doing stats on the previous game), but he has a knack for call the appropriate blitz or trap coverage at the perfect time.
I asked him how he knows when to do this, to which I get a shoulder shrug and a "felt like they were going to run that play".
What I think is happening is since he has over 4 times the coaching experience that I do is he can unknowingly dissect an offense's tendencies after a couple drives. Slight differences in body language as the quarterback approaches the LOS, etc.
Experience does yield answers to many of the "WHAT" questions, but can often miss the HOW and WHY questions.
Not only is an understanding of the WHY/HOW important to Millennials, it is also important to your players. Your players need more than "trust me" to have buy in to what you are doing. They need examples of said strategy working, and other justifications for the course of action.
Any coach over 50 feeling frustrated with today's kids as opposed to the kids they got in the early 90's?
Beyond mere player buy in, when a coach understands the WHY, there is often an improvement in application.
Back to our DC........we started to put together playlists of a team's third downs, 1st downs by hash, etc. and showing him those during game planning.
It kick started the processing so that his "BLINK" was dialed in before kickoff, instead of after a couple series.
Now, as it pertains to "using statistics to win games", etc............start off with the elder statesman's wisdom. What thing do they specifically want to see in a game, etc.
An experience coach may note that he likes offensive drives where the ball DOES NOT stay on the same hash for 3 plays. He may have some theories about why this is, but doesn't really know why.
Using statistical analysis, one may discover that a majority of a team's three and out's occur when the ball stays on the same hash.
Geometrically speaking this makes sense, as the defense can cheat on BOUNDARY curl-flat support and deploy extra men to the FIELD. They also have the ability to play outside in from a force standpoint without worries about the ball getting the FIELD flat (which is why they pay 20 million a year to handful of human beings who can rope 20 yard comebacks to the FIELD).
By analyzing play selection on instances of one hash 3 and outs, one can start to see patterns emerge on how that happens. As a simple example, maybe we are trying to get off the hash, but toss sweep is getting shutdown.
Figuring out WHY can create a gameplan to get off the hash:
*Are there too many defenders cheated to the FIELD? (if so, the actual answer may be to blast runs into the BOUNDARY until they adjust the numbers and give you a fair shake at the FIELD)
*The Force player is coming outside in like a bat out of hell to prevent us from getting the edge? (Waggle Flood)
*The DE is stunting to keep from getting reached? (Run Power to get off the hash)
So what we have is experience telling us a WHAT faster than statistical analysis would have, and statistical analysis breakdown the situations to help verify the WHAT and identify the WHY.
Taking that to your players helps sell the game plan, which in turn increases the level of execution (which is the biggest bugaboo variable in the whole thing).
Just a thought I've been formulating as I read the other threads regarding stats. Curious to see what other's experiences have been in mingling experience and statistics.
