kats
Freshmen Member
Posts: 30 
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Post by kats on Nov 1, 2015 10:14:42 GMT -6
Coaches, I am looking for a chart that was created showing a team's scoring percentage based upon where they start the drive. Any help is greatly appreciated.
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Post by spos21ram on Nov 1, 2015 12:05:04 GMT -6
I have one somewhere, but they are somewhat easy to find with a Google search. However, finding one for HS is difficult because there isn't a system in place to track all that info. Should be able to find one with college or nfl percentages though. If I find the one I have I'll post it.
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using proboards
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Post by coachwoodall on Nov 1, 2015 18:35:31 GMT -6
Don't worry about a generic chart, make one based on YOUR team.
Last year we were a lot better on both sides of the ball because we had kicker that kicked the ball in the end zone 71% of the time and averaged 41 yards a punt, and we had the state's specialist of the year returning kicks.
The differential in starting field position was + 25; they started on the -21, we started on the -46.
This year we're about even in differential. While I haven't done the math, both us and them are starting around the 35. Our kicker is mediocre and we have another home run hitter so the bad guys kick away or pooch kick. We're scoring about the same. On defense we're actually better player wise and execution wise, but statistically we're a step behind by a tick.
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Post by Chris Clement on Nov 1, 2015 18:48:51 GMT -6
I don't think you'd ever have enough data to make such a chart based on one team. You'd probably want at least a thousand data points to feel good about your chart, so it's pretty easy if you include every game on your hudl account.
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Post by coachwoodall on Nov 1, 2015 19:23:27 GMT -6
You'll have plenty of data points, but it will only be valid in the last 1/3 of the season. It could be relevant for a playoff run if the competition in the regular season is compatible, to degree to the playoff foes. It's the same with computer power rankings; they get more accurate as the season progresses.
Taking data from a generic chart won't mean squat for Team Local HS. You have to have data that is relevant what you see on the field. Case in point, the study that made its rounds a couple of years back on the idea that NFL coaches should go for it on 4th down more. The conclusion was even with the premise that the NFL is fairly equal top to bottom, you need to track what you team able to do and know what is transpiring within the game.
This year we are better on both sides of the ball, but our numbers don't reflect that because last year we were superior in the kicking game, namely our kicker.
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Post by 33coach on Nov 1, 2015 19:30:45 GMT -6
Coaches, I am looking for a chart that was created showing a team's scoring percentage based upon where they start the drive. Any help is greatly appreciated. Wouldn't that depend on your team? And year to year? |
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Post by spos21ram on Nov 1, 2015 19:39:14 GMT -6
I'm pretty sure the OP wants the chart just to show his team or coaches or whoever that your chances of scoring are greater the better the field position you have. It's a pretty obvious statement. Is a chart really necessary?
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using proboards
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Post by 33coach on Nov 1, 2015 20:00:00 GMT -6
I'm pretty sure the OP wants the chart just to show his team or coaches or whoever that your chances of scoring are greater the better the field position you have. It's a pretty obvious statement. Is a chart really necessary? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using proboards sure, but any generic chart like that would be pure BS right? id rather not lie to my players & coaches. |
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Post by spos21ram on Nov 1, 2015 20:35:53 GMT -6
I'm pretty sure the OP wants the chart just to show his team or coaches or whoever that your chances of scoring are greater the better the field position you have. It's a pretty obvious statement. Is a chart really necessary? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using proboards sure, but any generic chart like that would be pure BS right? id rather not lie to my players & coaches. Not really. They're real numbers. They're just not team specific. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using proboards |
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Post by 33coach on Nov 1, 2015 20:52:29 GMT -6
sure, but any generic chart like that would be pure BS right? id rather not lie to my players & coaches. Not really. They're real numbers. They're just not team specific. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using proboards They can't be real numbers. You can't say with any shred of fact that you have an X percent chance to score on Y yardline. Football doesn't work that way. |
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Post by Chris Clement on Nov 1, 2015 21:44:59 GMT -6
Well, you can in the NFL, there's enough parity and data to establish a certain level of confidence. If you made a high school chart from teams of generally similar calibres it wouldn't give you useful absolute numbers, but it would be useful in a relative way, you could see roughly what the value of field position is, and which increments of field position are more valuable than others.
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Post by blb on Nov 2, 2015 7:07:27 GMT -6
I have a Defensive Field Chart in playbook from one of colleges I coached at.
It is dated and I don't know where the data came from, but might be somewhat useful.
Opponents' chances of scoring when beginning possession
From own Goalline to -20: 1 out of 35
-20 to 50: 1 out of 3
50 to +10: 1 out of 2
+10 to Goalline: 2 out of 3
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Post by fantom on Nov 2, 2015 7:30:32 GMT -6
I'm pretty sure the OP wants the chart just to show his team or coaches or whoever that your chances of scoring are greater the better the field position you have. It's a pretty obvious statement. Is a chart really necessary? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using proboards sure, but any generic chart like that would be pure BS right? id rather not lie to my players & coaches. You're not one of those people who are going to tell your kids that there's no Santa Claus are you? |
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kats
Freshmen Member
Posts: 30
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Post by kats on Nov 2, 2015 8:09:34 GMT -6
bob,
that is where I am looking at. There was a chart created based on field starting point that gave the percentage of scoring. Yes it's harder to score when you start at the -10 as compared to +30, but there was a chart with that info on it.
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Post by fantom on Nov 2, 2015 8:43:55 GMT -6
bob, that is where I am looking at. There was a chart created based on field starting point that gave the percentage of scoring. Yes it's harder to score when you start at the -10 as compared to +30, but there was a chart with that info on it. I saw that chart referenced in an article about that guy who never punts. I don't remember his name but I think he coaches at Pulaski Academy. Ask the right questions on Google and I think you'll find it. |
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Post by chipprjonz10 on Nov 2, 2015 10:03:21 GMT -6
Alot of teams in my area onside everytime. There reasoning is they do not have a kicker who can get it to the endzone and if the team usually starts on their own 40 (with the average returns they give up), why not try to get the ball and if you dont, give them the ball around the 45-50 (only a 5-10 yard difference of starting position with their "average kicker")
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Post by 33coach on Nov 2, 2015 10:25:38 GMT -6
sure, but any generic chart like that would be pure BS right? id rather not lie to my players & coaches. You're not one of those people who are going to tell your kids that there's no Santa Claus are you? HA! well its more about looking dumb at work; if you make a blanket statement like "we will score 80% of the time from the opps 22 yard line" - and you go 0-8 with 3 touchdowns all year. you will look pretty dumb |
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Post by dubber on Nov 2, 2015 21:15:54 GMT -6
You're not one of those people who are going to tell your kids that there's no Santa Claus are you? HA! well its more about looking dumb at work; if you make a blanket statement like "we will score 80% of the time from the opps 22 yard line" - and you go 0-8 with 3 touchdowns all year. you will look pretty dumb It is about where the drives start.
If you get the ball at the opponent's 22 eight times during the year and fail to score, then you don't look dumb, you just really suck.
Because of the lack of parity between high school teams, these stats are sometimes not as helpful.
If you can establish what your competitive games were, and then chart starting field position for each drive, followed by the scoring success of the drives, you will see the closer you start, the better your odds of scoring.
Duh. BUT, if you can translate to your kids the importance of field position, backed with some statistical veracity, you can create a greater degree of focus.
I know at least my kids work like that.
We did an analysis of our O and D GL success ratios at the end of the regular season.
For defense, we were 2 of 9. Meaning we gave up 7 TD's in 9 opportunities.
Now, the reality is if we've only had 9 opportunities in 9 games, we are a pretty good defense.
Also, 6 of those 7 TD's came against 2 teams (both flex bone teams, btw........jerks).
But reality didn't really matter when my starting Mike found out. He got mad.
Our breakdowns became "20 and done" or "10 and done". We started to build an identity around it.
This past Friday in the playoffs our defense gave up over 350 yards, but we got 3 stops inside the 20.
Relating this to the OP, it can help drive home the importance of the kicking game (coverage and blocking), turnovers, and getting off/converting on 3rd down.
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Post by spos21ram on Nov 3, 2015 6:51:42 GMT -6
You're not one of those people who are going to tell your kids that there's no Santa Claus are you? HA! well its more about looking dumb at work; if you make a blanket statement like "we will score 80% of the time from the opps 22 yard line" - and you go 0-8 with 3 touchdowns all year. you will look pretty dumb That's where your thinking is off. No one is gonna use this chart and say "WE will score 80% of the time from...." It's more of a reference for the kids to understand the importance of field position. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using proboards |
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Post by fballcoachg on Nov 3, 2015 7:20:01 GMT -6
You're not one of those people who are going to tell your kids that there's no Santa Claus are you? HA! well its more about looking dumb at work; if you make a blanket statement like "we will score 80% of the time from the opps 22 yard line" - and you go 0-8 with 3 touchdowns all year. you will look pretty dumb So when you install a pass play do you not tell them what coverage it is designed to beat because if you don't beat that coverage then you look dumb? Do you install everything and say "but I don't know if it will work or be good for us"? I think a noncommittal attitude would make you look dumber in this game than having outward confidence or supporting statistics. I don't guarantee much to my team but I definitely have confidence and talk to them about probabilities and percentages as well as what I am confident in. |
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