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Post by fantom on Oct 1, 2013 10:57:01 GMT -6
I'll start by reminding everyone that this isn't a fan site. This post is not intended to start an argument about any specific coach's merits as a coach or human being. If the thread veers in that direction I'm sure that the mods will lock or delete it. I'm only using specific examples here a s starting point for discussion.
When USC's Lane Kiffin was fired it was noted that his problems started when his highly touted 2012 team finished with a losing record then continued to play poorly (by their standards) this year. I've seen that happen before. An example would be the 1999 Penn State team. That team started off the season undefeated and was ranked #1 or #2 before they lost their last three regular season games. In four of the next five years they had losing records. I'm sure that we can all think of similar examples where a program is clicking right along, has an unexpectedly bad season in a year when they had high hopes, then went into a free fall.
The question is, what causes that free fall? Is the bad season a symptom of hidden serious problems within the program? Does the bad season create panic within and above the program that causes them to make poor decisions?
Thoughts?
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Post by blb on Oct 1, 2013 11:19:25 GMT -6
Easy answer is complacency.
The game is constantly evolving and changing. When you think you've got it all figured out based on winning you can get passed by those who are innovating or improving.
It can be hard for all to stay self-motivated or "hungry" and not assume you will continue to be successful just because you have been.
If you stay at one place long enough, eventually you will have to rebuild your own program. "Staying power" is an important quality in coaching, but sometimes it requires willingness to adjust or adapt if not change.
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Post by airman on Oct 1, 2013 11:46:37 GMT -6
scholarship reductions from NCAA penalties under the Pete Carroll era. A team like USC can get starters but they lacked depth and this is where have only 70 scholarships hurts.
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Post by Coach Huey on Oct 1, 2013 12:57:59 GMT -6
Also, look at WHO the other team is playing. Last year, we had a school near us start 6-0 and were blowing people out like 50-7... everyone began touting "their back, lookout". problem was, the teams they were beating were just flat out terrible - they finished with a combined 5 wins. Then, after the 6-0 start, this team had to play a real schedule and proceeded to go 0-4 and miss the playoffs.
same thing this year - we'll see if they finish the same.
also, some years the schedule is just down so your record really isn't an indication that you're any good. the other guys just lost some players and you managed to beat them. so you have a "good" year or you're record is good. at some point, the balance of power begins to equalize and you either 'free fall' or, quite simply, reality sets in.
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Post by fantom on Oct 1, 2013 13:07:32 GMT -6
Also, look at WHO the other team is playing. Last year, we had a school near us start 6-0 and were blowing people out like 50-7... everyone began touting "their back, lookout". problem was, the teams they were beating were just flat out terrible - they finished with a combined 5 wins. Then, after the 6-0 start, this team had to play a real schedule and proceeded to go 0-4 and miss the playoffs. same thing this year - we'll see if they finish the same. also, some years the schedule is just down so your record really isn't an indication that you're any good. the other guys just lost some players and you managed to beat them. so you have a "good" year or you're record is good. at some point, the balance of power begins to equalize and you either 'free fall' or, quite simply, reality sets in. It happens.Last year we started 4-1 and finished 4-6. We were 4-1 because the four teams that we beat weren't very good. The question is how do you avoid a death spiral that carries over into next year?
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Post by Coach Huey on Oct 1, 2013 17:41:22 GMT -6
loaded question ...
WHY did you death spiral? in your case, you simply weren't any good and reality kicked in with the schedule. how to keep it from happening next year? 1) get better or 2) play the same terrible teams early on and work to get better (and hope the latter part has declined)
if you were good, but just lost close games you probably should have won ... well, isn't that a different thing? so now, you're talking about a mental aspect. the aforementioned scenario is pretty much physical (genetics).
so, you have to look deeper into the "why" did we lose those close games when it is a mental thing. then, you address that.. be it poor focus in practice, lack of confidence, etc. so find drills that build confidence, or install a few schemes, changes, that help reduce the amount of times a kid is in a position where he might be less confident.
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Post by silkyice on Oct 1, 2013 18:07:40 GMT -6
I don't know how to necessarily avoid the death spiral, but this might be an answer.
Coach the details and play to a standard. Do this in drills at practice and games. Quit worrying about the scoreboard. Have a 24 hour rule. When you win, celebrate for a day. When you lose, mourn for a day. Then get back to work.
When things go bad, go back to your fundamentals. Read your keys. Play your technique. Break down and wrap up. Have ball security. Sustain blocks. Carry out great fakes.
Somehow convince your kids of these things and you can have more sustained success and play at a high level.
I think things like death spirals can come from too much emotion or too high expectations. Emotion doesn't win games, execution does. Nothing wrong with controlled emotion. But each game is 4 quarters or more and the season is 10 games or more. You can't be emotionally up all the time.
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Post by fantom on Oct 1, 2013 18:48:31 GMT -6
I don't know how to necessarily avoid the death spiral, but this might be an answer. Coach the details and play to a standard. Do this in drills at practice and games. Quit worrying about the scoreboard. Have a 24 hour rule. When you win, celebrate for a day. When you lose, mourn for a day. Then get back to work. When things go bad, go back to your fundamentals. Read your keys. Play your technique. Break down and wrap up. Have ball security. Sustain blocks. Carry out great fakes. Somehow convince your kids of these things and you can have more sustained success and play at a high level. I think things like death spirals can come from too much emotion or too high expectations. Emotion doesn't win games, execution does. Nothing wrong with controlled emotion. But each game is 4 quarters or more and the season is 10 games or more. You can't be emotionally up all the time. Yeah, but that's not really what I'm asking about. Bad seasons happen and everybody who does this long enough will have one, no matter how good they are. I wasn't talking about our problems last year because we weren't surprised. I'm talking more about theory, about complete program collapses when things seemed to be going well then drop off the cliff.
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Post by CS on Oct 1, 2013 19:27:09 GMT -6
I don't know how to necessarily avoid the death spiral, but this might be an answer. Coach the details and play to a standard. Do this in drills at practice and games. Quit worrying about the scoreboard. Have a 24 hour rule. When you win, celebrate for a day. When you lose, mourn for a day. Then get back to work. When things go bad, go back to your fundamentals. Read your keys. Play your technique. Break down and wrap up. Have ball security. Sustain blocks. Carry out great fakes. Somehow convince your kids of these things and you can have more sustained success and play at a high level. I think things like death spirals can come from too much emotion or too high expectations. Emotion doesn't win games, execution does. Nothing wrong with controlled emotion. But each game is 4 quarters or more and the season is 10 games or more. You can't be emotionally up all the time. I was just having this same conversation with an assistant this past Friday. I'm the same way. If kids go I to a game playing on pure emotion it won't last and the team able to keep their heads will win every time. that being said there is time for high emotions but you can't live or die with them
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Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2013 19:41:01 GMT -6
One of the answers I know we have suffered from is the player leadership far less than desirable at times. EX. one year we had a kid who could make all the throws and decision with ease his sophomore year...junior year all of sudden he is hesitant, making easy throws look hard.....senior year he drops out....half way through theoretical senior year he is busted for dealing. Another one is your schedule is crap. Lots of teams play crap teams go undefeated. Next year, 2 teams who can actually play, destroy them...this happens almost every year in our area schools. and finally If you have conflict in the coaching ranks and that leaks out to the players, Those divides in the coaching ranks show up in the locker room almost mirrored to what is going on in coaches locker room.
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Post by jlenwood on Oct 1, 2013 20:54:09 GMT -6
When USC's Lane Kiffin was fired it was noted that his problems started when his highly touted 2012 team finished with a losing record then continued to play poorly (by their standards) this year. I've seen that happen before. An example would be the 1999 Penn State team. That team started off the season undefeated and was ranked #1 or #2 before they lost their last three regular season games. In four of the next five years they had losing records. I'm sure that we can all think of similar examples where a program is clicking right along, has an unexpectedly bad season in a year when they had high hopes, then went into a free fall. The question is, what causes that free fall? Is the bad season a symptom of hidden serious problems within the program? Does the bad season create panic within and above the program that causes them to make poor decisions? Thoughts? I think most times a high school team is judged on what they did last year, and the expectations remain for the current year. Well, around our program the talent level and number of kids can rise and fall like a roller coaster. So you have a great year, and then everybody thinks that it's gonna be all good after that, and the season starts off with low numbers or injuries or whatever else can derail a season. I would bet if you really could figure out a way to statistically track things, a death spiral occurs as a result of little things that can be overlooked when you have a talented/athletic team of football players...and then the reality of less than great coaching takes over when the talent level decreases and details are overlooked, dissension amongst players and/or coaches, community support and on and on can cause the spiral. It just seems to me that the programs that are consistently good may be down (not out) for a season and then they bounce right back to competitive, and I attribute that to a good coaching staff. The teams that go off the rails may have a good season and then it seems they rebuild for the next 5.
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Post by sweep26 on Oct 1, 2013 21:09:49 GMT -6
When there is a complete collapse in an established program, it is rarely the X's and O's. It is more likely that major changes have occured somewhere. Look around...Administration changes? Funding changes? Schedule changes? Has the true Quality of your Players changed? New Coaches? etc.
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Post by coachwoodall on Oct 2, 2013 8:02:02 GMT -6
There are a couple of teams in SC that might fall into this category. Both played for the big cookie last year, but graduated a ton and/or have a bunch of injuries. Basically they are starting over this year. Both are great programs with a tremendous history. Both started the season 'ranked'. I think these ranking cause the unnecessary sense of expected success. Most coaches see these things coming, but the kids and community don't always wear the same glasses we use.
Another factor that I have noticed is that in high growth areas that experience off shoot high schools/expansion, usually the established school is the program that suffers and the new school experiences a degree of quick success. In SC, from what I have noted, is that it takes the 'old school' about 8-10 years to recover.
So far as preventing this death spiral, it will really depend on the circumstances. As with any negative aspect of a team/program, the leadership will be tantamount to how it is dealt with and fixed. If the leaders bail because the see the hand about to be dealt, then this only adds to the facts of the circumstance.
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Post by hammer66 on Oct 2, 2013 9:10:56 GMT -6
When there is a complete collapse in an established program, it is rarely the X's and O's. It is more likely that major changes have occured somewhere. Look around...Administration changes? Funding changes? Schedule changes? Has the true Quality of your Players changed? New Coaches? etc. I only speak from a HIGH School perspective. We had a run of about 8 years where we were virtually unbeatable. Two State championship appearances one win. Four district championships. Heck we didn't lose a home game in five years ... great times. Then we went into a free fall. Lack of interest in the offseason programs. Coaches leaving for other opportunities due to the success of program. Numbers went from sixty plus to our present twenty eight. Same head coach throughout it all. I have been there for it all. We line up every week and the other team always has about three kids better than anyone we have. Its been a struggle. I really see a change in the demographics at our school as an issue. Parenting as well has been an issue. As the DC I have gone completely vanilla and back to the basics. I have just learned over the years that we cant make kids do what they wont do.
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Post by spos21ram on Oct 2, 2013 9:24:49 GMT -6
I have a short answer and there's more to it, but many times when this happens to programs, they just aren't as good as everyone thought.
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using proboards
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Post by fantom on Oct 2, 2013 9:44:21 GMT -6
When one disappointing season causes a program to collapse I think that the problem is panic. Fans and administrators begin doubting the coaches. Coaches feel the heat, make major changes to the program, and try to become something that they're not. They may lose good people. Coaches may try to "modernize" and install new schemes that they don't really believe in and understand. They may crack down on discipline, where no disciplinary problems actually existed, and end up running kids off.
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Post by silkyice on Oct 2, 2013 10:06:58 GMT -6
The answer cannot lie in looking at programs that have free fallen. It has to be to look at programs that have not.
Alabama is perfect example. Look at what happened with Mike Dubose and Mike Shula. They both almost got Alabama back to the top and they both had a free fall.
Now look at Nick Saban. He got Alabama to the top. Then with his best team EVER went 10-3. Perfect setup for a free fall. But instead they won two national championships and are number 1 right now. What is the difference? If you keep up with Saban, you know the difference.
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Post by spos21ram on Oct 2, 2013 12:27:00 GMT -6
The answer cannot lie in looking at programs that have free fallen. It has to be to look at programs that have not. Alabama is perfect example. Look at what happened with Mike Dubose and Mike Shula. They both almost got Alabama back to the top and they both had a free fall. Now look at Nick Saban. He got Alabama to the top. Then with his best team EVER went 10-3. Perfect setup for a free fall. But instead they won two national championships and are number 1 right now. What is the difference? If you keep up with Saban, you know the difference. So being the biggest prick on the planet = consistent success Can't argue his success though. He has great attention to detail. Very Belichik like.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2013 18:14:16 GMT -6
I'll start by reminding everyone that this isn't a fan site. This post is not intended to start an argument about any specific coach's merits as a coach or human being. If the thread veers in that direction I'm sure that the mods will lock or delete it. I'm only using specific examples here a s starting point for discussion. When USC's Lane Kiffin was fired it was noted that his problems started when his highly touted 2012 team finished with a losing record then continued to play poorly (by their standards) this year. I've seen that happen before. An example would be the 1999 Penn State team. That team started off the season undefeated and was ranked #1 or #2 before they lost their last three regular season games. In four of the next five years they had losing records. I'm sure that we can all think of similar examples where a program is clicking right along, has an unexpectedly bad season in a year when they had high hopes, then went into a free fall. The question is, what causes that free fall? Is the bad season a symptom of hidden serious problems within the program? Does the bad season create panic within and above the program that causes them to make poor decisions? Thoughts? I don't know if there will be a true answer that fits every situation. I don't believe that 1 season truly makes or breaks a program by itself. Usually, the disappointing season is merely an indicator that things have gone south in other ways behind the scenes. One thing I have noticed is that it's often the loss of a key assistant or two who were worth much more to the program than people realized. If a top notch coordinator leaves or some excellent position coaches head elsewhere, those guys aren't always replaced. For example, Tennessee used to be a top 10 program through the mid-late 90s when David Cutcliffe was there as OC. He left to become HC at Ole Miss and they dropped off the national radar without him during those 3 years. He came back for 2 years and they were soon competing for SEC championships again. Then he left to be HC at Duke and, well... you see what happened. USC's decline, to me, started with the Reggie Bush scandal and Pete Carroll heading to the NFL. They're still dealing with the radioactive fallout from that, which the media does not fully comprehend. Plus, Kiffin's just not that good a coach. He's good for being a d-bag and talking like he's the second coming of Steve Spurrier, but he's never really done much as a HC. In the case of a lot of HS, the one bad season, then free fall thing might be because a new principal is on the scene who's screwed things up, they've got changing demographics/enrollment, different feeder patterns, increased competition, or some new district policy undermines football. The school my younger cousin currently attends seems to fall into a lot of these categories. Their HOF HC (2nd one in a row over a 40+ year span) retired a few years back. When he and his predecessor was there, they regularly competed for (and won) state year in and out. An old assistant came out of retirement to take over and things stayed solid at first--not what they used to be, but they were still very good. They got moved to a different district. NCLB and other educational politics got in the way of some things they used to do to help the football team out. Then the old rivals they used to play all got consolidated into a couple of tough programs who now cream them all over the place. That team has been mediocre for a few years and is now 1-4, getting blown out every week.
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