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Post by fantom on May 8, 2012 13:16:32 GMT -6
All of this talk about former pro players committing suicide and dying young has revived my interest in a research project that I've been thinking about. They say that the average former player today dies in his 50"s. I don't believe that that's always been true. It seemed to me that the old-timers didn't have that problem, that this is a recent phenomenon.
A few months ago, out of curiosity, I looked at the roster of the 1925 Pottsville Maroons. The info was very incomplete but of the 25 players who I found, only four died young (defined as under 60) abd one of them got killed in WW II.
Now, I'm looking at this more systematically. I'm using Pro Football Reference to look at the careers and life spans of players who played in different decades. It's VERY preliminary right now but promising. I'm in the '20's and only through the A's but:
- Only two of the 25 players died earlier than their '60's.
- Ten out of the 25 died in their '80's to '90's.
- Possibly related (?): Only 7 of the 25 players weighed 200 or more pounds and the biggest was 234.
I'll keep you informed abour my progress.
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Post by Chris Clement on May 8, 2012 13:23:08 GMT -6
Well, weighing 350 pounds is bad for your health, that's pretty much a bottom-line statement. Also, what are you going to use as your criteria for NFL players? Guys who got a sniff? 3 seasons? pro bowlers?
Further, how do you separate cause and effect? What's to say that those who make it to the NFL tend to die young because they are prone to reckless, aggressive behaviour ( like trhowing your body around) and not the other way around?
it also sounds extremely unlikely that the average player is dying in his 50's. The '94 Chargers are considered "cursed" because a few have died under 50, so that doesn't add up.
Sounds interesting though, keep us posted.
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Post by blb on May 8, 2012 13:28:49 GMT -6
I remember reading or hearing a while back that the average life span of a former NFL player (I believe it was one that qualified for a pension, played at least 3-4 years) was ridiculously less then that of average American male, by over a decade or more.
Unfortunately I don't recall exactly when or what the source was.
No theory as to why was given.
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Post by blb on May 8, 2012 13:49:32 GMT -6
Out of curiosity and inspired by fantom, I did a little research (ProFootballReference.com) of my own.
Assuming source to be accurate:
Of 37 players listed on the roster of the 1962 NFL champion Green Bay Packers, 25 are still alive. Most in their upper 70s, oldest being 80.
Ages at death of those deceased were 42, 53, 60, 61, 66, 68, 71, 74, 75, 75, 77, 78.
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Post by Chris Clement on May 8, 2012 13:56:02 GMT -6
That's not a shocking distribution given the era. With a little luck they could end up beating the general population.
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Post by wingtol on May 8, 2012 15:39:47 GMT -6
I would like to see if you can kind of define when the "pharmaceutical" age began in pro football and see if there is a decline in the average life span of players after roids, pain pills, and other drugs became common place.
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Post by playsmart on May 8, 2012 17:46:07 GMT -6
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Post by fantom on May 8, 2012 18:35:20 GMT -6
Well, weighing 350 pounds is bad for your health, that's pretty much a bottom-line statement. Also, what are you going to use as your criteria for NFL players? Guys who got a sniff? 3 seasons? pro bowlers? Further, how do you separate cause and effect? What's to say that those who make it to the NFL tend to die young because they are prone to reckless, aggressive behaviour ( like trhowing your body around) and not the other way around? it also sounds extremely unlikely that the average player is dying in his 50's. The '94 Chargers are considered "cursed" because a few have died under 50, so that doesn't add up. Sounds interesting though, keep us posted. My criteria is simple: if they're listed in Pro Football Reference-that is, they played at least one year-I count them. I have no way to do cause and effect. I can't get that info so I'm not trying. I'm only interested in whether or not modern players are really dying younger. The pharmaceuticals probably started around 1970. The Chargers had a huge steroids/amphetamines scandal around then and that's when the Steelers started their heyday. The fact that that's when cocaine started to get big probably didn't help. |
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Post by spos21ram on May 8, 2012 18:43:11 GMT -6
Other reasons that may add to early deaths are steroids, drug use, and other performance enhancers. Also stacking countless vitamins, amino acids, and other over the counter supplements are not good for your liver and kidneys. I remember watching a special on ESPN like 10 years ago on Romanowski. He was taking something like 30+ pills a day.
A lot of this stuff wasn't available 50 years ago.
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Post by fantom on May 8, 2012 18:56:20 GMT -6
Other reasons that may add to early deaths are steroids, drug use, and other performance enhancers. Also stacking countless vitamins, amino acids, and other over the counter supplements are not good for your liver and kidneys. I remember watching a special on ESPN like 10 years ago on Romanowski. He was taking something like 30+ pills a day. A lot of this stuff wasn't available 50 years ago. I do believe that there are more concussion problems today because of the helmets. Those of us who wore Riddell Suspensions will tell you that they did NOT encourage you to drop your head into a ramming position. If you did, for a half hour afterward your head would sound like somebody hit a golf ball in a boiler. If you go to YouTube and look up big hitters like Butkus and Nitschke what you'll mostly see is a good, fundamental tackling position. |
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creid
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Post by creid on May 9, 2012 6:52:30 GMT -6
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Post by cqmiller on May 9, 2012 7:24:30 GMT -6
All professional athletes are in the top 1% of height and weight... those lead to shortened life-spans. Organs fail, more cells can mutate and become cancerous, and many other things. Look at the BMI index. I played QB in high school and college and was considered the "skinny" kid. Everytime I go to the doctor, I was being told my weight put me in the obese category...
Now imagine the 6'5" 250 lb QB's out there. If I remember correctly, at 6'3" I was supposed to be at 200 pounds or less to BARELY not be in the "overweight" category.
Again... Basketball players tend to die in their 50's & 60's about 15 years before the average as well. Their organs (hearts especially) cannot live as long as someone who is only pumping blood into a 5'8" 175 lb body. Genetics allows them to be the physically dominant people they are, but it is also the cause of many of their deaths as well.
Nobody can live forever, and if you are a 5'8" 175 pound "average" person who sits in a desk and eats healthy, you can probably expect to live to be 70-80 years old. If you are a larger person (I am 6'3" 250 today... up from 6'3" 230 as a player) I am probably going to die before I hit 65 unless I am lucky.
Same reason I eat meat... I'll die of a heart attack at 55 with a Porterhouse in my mouth over not knowing who I am and $h!tting my pants 4 times a day for the last 10 years of my life!
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Post by veerman on May 9, 2012 7:31:07 GMT -6
I think that in today's society the use of medicines has kinda balanced themselves out. Anything in excess is bad for you, glass a wine a day is good, 10 is not. Even 1 candy bar is OK, 5-10 is not. Steroids gets a bad rap, there has been 0 studies on the effects of steroids, but all we can think of are the negative side effects when taken in excess. Vitamins (things your suppose to take in daily) can be harmful to your health when taken to the extreme.
Medicines have helped prolong athletes lives when used properly, but the access to everything else that can be abused has defiantly shorten it.
For the most part they are still tackling fundamentally sound, just people are not suppose to be that big and move that fast. Its kinda like in the old days it was a bunch of Honda Civics hitting into each other, no its a bunch of 18 wheelers.
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Post by fantom on May 9, 2012 7:51:19 GMT -6
Yet we keep hearing that ex-pro's die in their 50's on the average. I wonder where that comes from. |
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Post by cqmiller on May 9, 2012 7:55:55 GMT -6
There are three things to worry about...
1) Lies
2) Dammmn Lies
3) Statistics
Remember, you can make stats look however you want... you can modify sample size, grouping, data points that you count/reject, etc... Nobody has ever done a study on enough 6'3" 275 pound people who don't play football to be able to compare to the 6'3" 275 pound people who do. The data they compare comes from giant men who play football at D1 or NFL level to the guys who are EXTREMELY less massive and athletic. The data is basically worthless unless they get a true control-group.
Sorry... my math minor always creeps into my head when I see bad stats being used
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Post by coachdelo on May 9, 2012 8:14:26 GMT -6
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Post by coachcb on May 9, 2012 8:15:37 GMT -6
I imagine that you would find professional football players don't have a mortality rate any higher or lower than the regular population if a proper study was conducted.
I have been subscribing to a number of scientific journals over the years and I have honestly seen more flawed studies than viable ones. Even the NSCA publishes some absolute sh-t stuff.
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Post by John Knight on May 9, 2012 8:17:22 GMT -6
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Post by fantom on May 9, 2012 8:22:49 GMT -6
There are three things to worry about... 1) Lies 2) Dammmn Lies 3) Statistics Remember, you can make stats look however you want... you can modify sample size, grouping, data points that you count/reject, etc... Nobody has ever done a study on enough 6'3" 275 pound people who don't play football to be able to compare to the 6'3" 275 pound people who do. The data they compare comes from giant men who play football at D1 or NFL level to the guys who are EXTREMELY less massive and athletic. The data is basically worthless unless they get a true control-group. Sorry... my math minor always creeps into my head when I see bad stats being used I started out looking at the real old-timers. I plan to work my way into guys who played more recently but that article piqued my curiosity. I've just looked at players who played all or most of their career in the '70's (only the "A's" so far. VERY preliminary). Only two of them are dead: Josh Ashton, a RB for NE, who died at 42; and John Ayers, an OL from SF, whodied of liver cancer. Maybe this project is based on a false premise but that's worth knowing. |
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Post by Chris Clement on May 9, 2012 8:26:16 GMT -6
The problem going froward is that players' BMI's have skyrocketed, and some of them (Albert Haynesworth?) are not keeping up on their cardio.
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Post by blb on May 9, 2012 8:31:22 GMT -6
The problem going froward is that players' BMI's have skyrocketed, and some of them (Albert Haynesworth?) are not keeping up on their cardio. According to our resident expert (murdr), Football players shouldn't-don't have to do cardio. |
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Post by fantom on May 9, 2012 8:38:35 GMT -6
The problem going froward is that players' BMI's have skyrocketed, and some of them (Albert Haynesworth?) are not keeping up on their cardio. True but from what I've seen, ex-pro's (ex-players in general, for that matter) tend to go in two directions when they're done. Some make a conscious effort to drop weight and get into decent shape (see ESPN's Mark Schlereth) while some (and not just linemen) lose all discipline and go all Jabba the HUT. CQMiller make s great point: if guys are dropping dead from heart attacks, did football kill them or did being fat? If they hadn't played football would they have been marathon runners? Blb mentioned the '62 Packers. The 42 year old who died was Henry Jordan, a Hall of Fame DT. I happen to know about him not only because I'm a GB fan but because he's from here. Graduated from the same school where I taught. Jordan wasn't some big, fat guy. He was an undersized (240) lineman who wrestled in college. He played before the steroid age. Sometimes people just die. |
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Post by Chris Clement on May 9, 2012 8:46:16 GMT -6
Sure, cardio might not be essential for football (that's a debate I don't want to reopen) but at 400 pounds, your heart needs you to go for the occasional jog.
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Post by coachcb on May 9, 2012 8:53:34 GMT -6
BMI is a useless measurement tool, on any level. It doesn't measure body composition and it's whole design is flawed. Any method that was developed by an insurance company to set premiums isn't viable in the realm of real science.
I had a professor in college with a double doctorate in exercise physiology and statistical analysis. We discussed various body composition methods and he finished up that unit with one simple statement: "The human eye is the best tool in this situation."
You know how I can tell Albert Haynesworth will probably die young? Just look at him. The dude isn't just fat, he's obese. And, he's obese while playing professional football. Lord knows what's going to happen to him when he retires. I don't need calipers or underwater submersion or any of that to tell you when someone's fat. For example, I looked in the mirror this morning and said to myself, "Coach, you're fat. You're not obese, but you are fat." D-mned if I didn't need a BMI scale to tell me that one.
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Post by fantom on May 9, 2012 8:57:58 GMT -6
BMI is a useless measurement tool, on any level. It doesn't measure body composition and it's whole design is flawed. Any method that was developed by an insurance company to set premiums isn't viable in the realm of real science. I had a professor in college with a double doctorate in exercise physiology and statistical analysis. We discussed various body composition methods and he finished up that unit with one simple statement: "The human eye is the best tool in this situation." You know how I can tell Albert Haynesworth will probably die young? Just look at him. The dude isn't just fat, he's obese. And, he's obese while playing professional football. Lord knows what's going to happen to him when he retires. I don't need calipers or underwater submersion or any of that to tell you when someone's fat. For example, I looked in the mirror this morning and said to myself, "Coach, you're fat. You're not obese, but you are fat." D-mned if I didn't need a BMI scale to tell me that one. If you're using a metric that's based solely on the ratio between height and weight I'm sure that just about everybody in the NFL is classified as obese. |
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Post by blb on May 9, 2012 9:02:49 GMT -6
Blb mentioned the '62 Packers. The 42 year old who died was Henry Jordan, a Hall of Fame DT. I happen to know about him not only because I'm a GB fan but because he's from here. Graduated from the same school where I taught. Jordan wasn't some big, fat guy. He was an undersized (240) lineman who wrestled in college. He played before the steroid age. Sometimes people just die. According to Jerry Kramer in Distant Replay (1985), Jordan, who "hardly ever drank, just an occasional brandy," had a complete physical exam including stress test before his 42nd birthday. "He breezed through the test. He had no symptoms of heart disease, no history. "...a month after his forty-second birthday, Henry worked out at the Milwaukee Athletic Club. He jogged for awhile, then sat down and suffered a heart attack and died before he could be taken to a hospital." |
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Post by coachcb on May 9, 2012 9:07:59 GMT -6
BMI is a useless measurement tool, on any level. It doesn't measure body composition and it's whole design is flawed. Any method that was developed by an insurance company to set premiums isn't viable in the realm of real science. I had a professor in college with a double doctorate in exercise physiology and statistical analysis. We discussed various body composition methods and he finished up that unit with one simple statement: "The human eye is the best tool in this situation." You know how I can tell Albert Haynesworth will probably die young? Just look at him. The dude isn't just fat, he's obese. And, he's obese while playing professional football. Lord knows what's going to happen to him when he retires. I don't need calipers or underwater submersion or any of that to tell you when someone's fat. For example, I looked in the mirror this morning and said to myself, "Coach, you're fat. You're not obese, but you are fat." D-mned if I didn't need a BMI scale to tell me that one. If you're using a metric that's based solely on the ratio between height and weight I'm sure that just about everybody in the NFL is classified as obese. Agreed. Something to bear in mind: height is single dimension measurement, weight is in three dimensions. But, hey, the BMI evens that out by squaring the height to bump it up to two dimensions. It's like seeing how many spheres you can pack into a square; doesn't work. |
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2012 9:25:53 GMT -6
I think an interesting argument can be made that advanced technology of protective equipment has actually made the game more dangerous.
The introduction of the facemask has created violent tackling, and the idea of leading with the head. I think it was Joe Paterno who said that the best way to eliminate concussions and head injuries is to remove facemasks and force players to tackle with their shoulders.
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Post by John Knight on May 9, 2012 10:48:08 GMT -6
agreed, back to no facemask and low blocking.
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Post by Chris Clement on May 9, 2012 10:50:39 GMT -6
BMI is a great way to assess the health of large groups of populations, which is what insurance companies are trying to do. Insurance companies have billions of dollars invested in getting good numbers. But they aren't worried about individual cases. I'd have to agree with the eyeball test, and just like the table in the link above showed, a lot of DL are carrying extra weight.
There are several ways to reduce some of these problems. I favour shortening the play clock and reducing commercials to reduce the number of enormous players that cycle in for 2 plays and then need oxygen.
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