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Post by syphrit7 on Mar 19, 2012 5:30:47 GMT -6
What do you guys think is the most important stat when it comes to Winning or Losing the games? And don't tell me score more points than the other team.
Also, do you have any team goal for each game that have proven to win games?
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Post by grouchy71 on Mar 19, 2012 5:35:16 GMT -6
Turnover ratio is a pretty accurate indicator at just about all levels of football. Not sure if it's the chicken or the egg (bad teams tend to be sloppy, etc.), but it's worth looking at. I also like average starting field position, can tell a lot.
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Post by cqmiller on Mar 19, 2012 6:12:33 GMT -6
A couple of years ago there were a few coaches on the site who did some statistical analysis of NCAA football and the stat categories that were related to rankings. I'll see if I can find it and repost.
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Post by cqmiller on Mar 19, 2012 6:21:10 GMT -6
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Post by coachhart on Mar 19, 2012 6:25:27 GMT -6
At an R4 presentation, Dub Maddox referenced that a team that was +1 in explosive plays (12+ run, 16+ pass) and +1 in turnover ratio wins 91% of the time in the NFL. Not sure how this correlates with HS and College ball, but I'd be willing to bet that there is a strong relationship.
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Post by highball007 on Mar 19, 2012 6:37:48 GMT -6
Here is a great statistical breakdown of what you need to win football games! You must sign up to be a member to watch but it doesn't cost anything! *We KNOW What Wins Games chiefpigskin.com/video.php?id=323 |
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Post by coachfd on Mar 19, 2012 9:16:09 GMT -6
Keys to Winning a Game
1. Win the Turnover Battle
Offense: Secure the football and make good decisions. No offensive turnovers.
Defense: Create turnovers. Hard work, sound tackling, and hustle. “Pack Mentality” - first man makes the tackle, next defenders attack the football and swarm in for feeding frenzy.
Special Teams: Secure the football. No offensive special teams turnovers. Create turnovers on defensive special teams (punt/FG/PAT blocks, strip kick-returners).
2. Control Field Position
Special Teams: Be sound in the kicking game. Play disciplined, assignment football. Make fundamentally sound tackles. No extra yards on the returns. Be sound in the return game. Get to your block, use good technique, stay on your block. Get those extra yards and chunks on the returns.
Offense: Put together sustained drives and get first downs.
Move the chains – Get at least one first down every drive (No 3-and-outs)
Defense: Keep the offense from getting into a rhythm. Force 2nd and long. Force 3rd and medium-long. Wind third down. Force as many 3-and-outs as possible.
3. Eliminate Penalties
Offense: Be disciplined and know the snap count - No false-starts, by anyone. Use good technique, quick footwork, and be in position - No holding penalties. Know the rules – No cut blocks (below waist) coming back toward the play.
Defense: Be disciplined – Concentrate on the ball, block out all sound - No off-sides. Use good technique, quick footwork, and be in position - No defensive holding or pass interference. No facemask penalties.
Know the rules - No blocks in the back on fumble/interception returns.
No cut blocks/blocks below the waist.
Special Teams: Know the rules - No blocks in the back on returns (If you can read the name/number on the back of his jersey, you cannot hit him. Anything close – i.e. on the side – play it safe and do not make contact. We want big returns, and we do not want anything nullified by a penalty. Know the rules and be in good position – No “Halo Rule” violations. Use proper technique - No Running into or Roughing the Kicker.
No 15-yard penalties. Keep your composure and play smart.
No personal fouls. No unsportsmanlike conducts.
4. Score Points off Turnovers
We must score at least 3 points every time we force a turnover.
We must score a touchdown every time we force a turnover on the plus side of the field.
Capitalize off opponent’s mistakes, and gain the psychological edge.
5. Be Efficient in the Scoring Zone (+20 and in)
We must score points every time we get inside the opponent’s 20 yard line.
We must score a touchdown at least 75% of the time. (3 out of 4 times)
6. Finish in the Finishing Zone (+10 and in)
We must score a touchdown every time we have first and goal.
7. Win 3rd Down
Offense: Convert on 3rd Down at least 60% of the time. Move the chains. Convert each and every 4th Down.
Defense: Win 3rd Down and prevent the first down. Stop opposing offense at least 75% of the time. (3 out of 4 times) Stop the offense on each and every 4th Down.
3rd Down is our down.
8. Eliminate the Big Play
Be alignment and assignment sound. Do your job and trust your teammate to do his. Keep the ball and the play in front of you.
Hustle and swarm to the football. Pursue the ball carrier relentlessly, and never give up on the play. Make the offense play one more down.
9. Play Great Defense In the Red Zone
Stop the opposing offense inside our 20 yard line.
No touchdowns. No points.
Red is the “stop” color and the color of blood.
We want a ferocious Red Zone defense.
We want to make plays and create turnovers in this zone.
We must protect our goal line.
10. Counter-Punch Quickly and Effectively
We are going to face adversity. An opponent is going to make a big play or seize the momentum for the time being. When this happens, we must take it in stride, learn from our mistakes, and move on. We must counter-punch, like we are in a heavyweight fight.
Our attitude must be “Okay. They gave us their best shot. Now it’s our turn to deliver the blow.” We have to respond in the face of adversity. We have to make a play, string together a drive, force a 3-and-out on defense, get a big return, etc. We have to stay mentally tough and respond like a champion. We have to have the attitude that if we
trade punches all day, eventually we will through the knock-out punch. When we face adversity, we will concentrate, kick up our intensity another notch, and rise to the occasion.
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Post by groundchuck on Mar 19, 2012 9:48:54 GMT -6
All of those stats are good indicators. I would also like to propose sometimes there are stats that could be specific to your program. For example in the last four years we have not won a game in which we attempted 11+ passes. We have also not lost a game in which we have run it over 50 times.
Of course if you accumulate 50+ rushing attempts you are probably not turning the ball over, and you are converting 3rd down etc.
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Post by wingtol on Mar 19, 2012 11:46:07 GMT -6
I caution you to not get caught up in the whole stats thing on the HS level, like so many things in our game I have sen this trickle down from the NFL and college teams to HS. I think at those levels looking at a multitude of stats can help them because the talent level is so close between many teams. I just feel things can get to skewed at the HS level and you can get caught up looking at the wrong things.
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Post by coachorr on Mar 19, 2012 11:57:20 GMT -6
Is going for it on 4th down and not converting considered a "turnover". When talking about the turnover margin?
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Post by Chris Clement on Mar 19, 2012 12:11:12 GMT -6
Big special teams plays are said to have a huge impact on win percentage, like a blocked kick or a return TD, but like cqmiller said, any of these stats will have a chicken/egg aspect.
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Post by fantom on Mar 19, 2012 12:50:39 GMT -6
Turnover ratio is a pretty accurate indicator at just about all levels of football. Not sure if it's the chicken or the egg (bad teams tend to be sloppy, etc.), but it's worth looking at. I also like average starting field position, can tell a lot. At the Baltimore Glazier Clinic, NFL assistant Mark Duffner gave these stats about turnover differential. Looking at all NFL games the team with the following turnover differentials won the following percentage of the time: Even: 50% +1: 71% +2: 83% +3: 95% |
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Post by blb on Mar 19, 2012 12:57:42 GMT -6
Those stats often tell you why you won the game afterward.
But they don't help you call plays or defenses during the game.
And the kids sure as heck aren't thinking about them while they're battling on the field.
In other words they give you no assistance with how you're going to win while the contest is being played, which is more important.
Like the difference between Strategy and Tactics, which are fluid anyway.
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Post by mattharris75 on Mar 19, 2012 13:00:35 GMT -6
All of those stats are good indicators. I would also like to propose sometimes there are stats that could be specific to your program. For example in the last four years we have not won a game in which we attempted 11+ passes. We have also not lost a game in which we have run it over 50 times. Of course if you accumulate 50+ rushing attempts you are probably not turning the ball over, and you are converting 3rd down etc. We lost a game last season where we rushed the ball 62 times for 351 yards. No joke. 3 reasons: 1. Starting QB (and MLB) goes down with an injury in the 1st quarter 2. Three red zone fumbles 3. Other teams QB is committed to Alabama (Stud with a capital S) You know what they say, "Lies, d***ed lies, and statistics."  |
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Post by fantom on Mar 19, 2012 13:05:31 GMT -6
Those stats often tell you why you won the game afterward. But they don't help you call plays or defenses during the game. And the kids sure as heck aren't thinking about them while they're battling on the field. In other words they give you no assistance with how you're going to win while the contest is being played, which is more important. Like the difference between Strategy and Tactics, which are fluid anyway. The guy who gave the turnover differential stats was speaking on the topic, Drills to Create Takeaways. |
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Post by Chris Clement on Mar 19, 2012 13:05:59 GMT -6
Those stats often tell you why you won the game afterward. But they don't help you call plays or defenses during the game. And the kids sure as heck aren't thinking about them while they're battling on the field. In other words they give you no assistance with how you're going to win while the contest is being played, which is more important. Like the difference between Strategy and Tactics, which are fluid anyway. No, but they help season to season. We were awful this year, and looking back, our offense put up scads of yards and points, but also assloads of turnovers (7 in a game once), our D couldn't stem the tide forever. So now we know that we have a problem with shotgun snaps, option pitches, and dropback passes. |
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Post by blb on Mar 19, 2012 13:10:43 GMT -6
No, but they help season to season. We were awful this year, and looking back, our offense put up scads of yards and points, but also assloads of turnovers (7 in a game once), our D couldn't stem the tide forever. So now we know that we have a problem with shotgun snaps, option pitches, and dropback passes. cc, you had to look at Season Stats to "know" that? Weren't you at the games? Or at least watch the films? |
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Post by blb on Mar 19, 2012 13:16:20 GMT -6
It's like another kind of "stat" - being the favorite.
Favorites win over 70% of the time.
Why?
Because they're the better team!
And they will have more yards rushing, fewer turnovers, more 3rd Down conversions, whatever, because they're the better team.
I have never thought to myself during the course of a game, "We need to run for 23 more yards to reach our statistical goal," or "Hey, if we can't force two more turnovers, we'll lose."
And I'm sure the kids doing the playing never think in those terms either.
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Post by Chris Clement on Mar 19, 2012 14:17:49 GMT -6
No, but they help season to season. We were awful this year, and looking back, our offense put up scads of yards and points, but also assloads of turnovers (7 in a game once), our D couldn't stem the tide forever. So now we know that we have a problem with shotgun snaps, option pitches, and dropback passes. cc, you had to look at Season Stats to "know" that? Weren't you at the games? Or at least watch the films? I knew the turnovers were a problem, I didn't realize the offense was actually pretty good. We put up touchdowns on most drives that didn't end in turnovers. |
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Post by Defcord on Mar 19, 2012 16:05:24 GMT -6
I think stats tend to be representative of a good or bad team more so than the cause. Correlation more so to speak than causation in some ways.
Last year we were +9 in turnover margin, held the ball for 32:00 minutes more than opponents, and converted a higher percentage of passes than our opponents...I would think that if the stats dictated every thing then we would have had a much better record than the 2-8 record we posted.
Although sometimes the stats don't lie completely. We only rushed for 78 yards a game and gave up 233 a yards rushing. Our opponents out numbered us 2 to 1 on first downs as well.
The big plays and lack of rushing defense killed us regardless of the turnover margin and TOP.
Stats can help us in many ways but ultimately its all about execution. Sometimes crazy things happen within the game that throw the stats off.
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Post by coachd5085 on Mar 19, 2012 17:24:33 GMT -6
Those stats often tell you why you won the game afterward. But they don't help you call plays or defenses during the game. And the kids sure as heck aren't thinking about them while they're battling on the field. In other words they give you no assistance with how you're going to win while the contest is being played, which is more important. Like the difference between Strategy and Tactics, which are fluid anyway. The guy who gave the turnover differential stats was speaking on the topic, Drills to Create Takeaways. Coach I realize that referencing this type of data flows well with that type of clinic topic, but I think that the whole "drilling to create turnover thing" is a bit overrated, particularly at the higher levels. I have never come a cross a college team that doesn't do a turnover circuit... and most H.S teams I have been associated with do them as well. I always find it kind of interesting to see a coach talking about his "turnover drills" in clinic season because they led district/league, conference, country etc...in turnover margin or turnovers created. If you ask them "is this the first year you have done these drills" I bet the answer is "nope". If they aren't a leader the following season and you ask them if they did the same circuit I bet you get a "yep" |
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Post by coachks on Mar 19, 2012 17:45:32 GMT -6
As has been danced around, correlation =/= causation. Especially in a game like football with teeny tiny sample size data to look at.
Just for a quick anecdote about turnover margin. Since this statistic is largely formed using NFL data (teams that win the turnover battle win 75% or whatever), how many of those turnovers occurred at the end of the half and at the end of the game in "Hail Mary" scenarios.
If the Browns are playing the Patriots, they are considered the underdog. If they get a chance at the end of the half to take a shot at the endzone on the final play, they are probably going to take it because the risk/reward is in their favor (the benefit of the extra points outweighs the risk of a returned INT). If the Patriots are in that situation, knowing they are the better team, the risk of the INT return (or the hit on Brady ect ect.) outweighs the reward (since they view themselves as the favorites, in all likelihood).
This same premise applies at the end of the game. If the Pats are up 20 points, they probably just hand it off a few times and punt. If the Browns are down 20, they probably keep throwing it around because they have "nothing to lose."
How do those scenarios skew the numbers. With the relatively low number of turnovers (on a statistical scale, when we are talking about a +/- turnover ratio in single digits) a few "junk" turnovers like skew the data.
As for numbers that really "matter". I think big plays (However you choose to gauge it, be it over 10 yards, 15 or 20) and big plays as a ratio of plays is one of the better indicators. I believe that is a consistent number (teams that are explosive remain explosive, teams that are porous remain porous...and vice versa).
EDITED TO ADD:
I also think negative yardage plays is also a decent indicator. Teams that consistently make plays in the backfield are likely to continue to do so, and teams that regularly have their plays blown up in the backfield are likely to continue as well.
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Post by fantom on Mar 19, 2012 18:37:04 GMT -6
The guy who gave the turnover differential stats was speaking on the topic, Drills to Create Takeaways. Coach I realize that referencing this type of data flows well with that type of clinic topic, but I think that the whole "drilling to create turnover thing" is a bit overrated, particularly at the higher levels. I have never come a cross a college team that doesn't do a turnover circuit... and most H.S teams I have been associated with do them as well. I always find it kind of interesting to see a coach talking about his "turnover drills" in clinic season because they led district/league, conference, country etc...in turnover margin or turnovers created. If you ask them "is this the first year you have done these drills" I bet the answer is "nope". If they aren't a leader the following season and you ask them if they did the same circuit I bet you get a "yep" Actually, I agree with you to some extent. I do think that by emphasizing takeaways you can get better at it but it is often a matter of luck. |
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Post by holmesbend on Mar 19, 2012 19:28:10 GMT -6
All of those stats are good indicators. I would also like to propose sometimes there are stats that could be specific to your program. For example in the last four years we have not won a game in which we attempted 11+ passes. We have also not lost a game in which we have run it over 50 times. Of course if you accumulate 50+ rushing attempts you are probably not turning the ball over, and you are converting 3rd down etc. Agreed. Also, let's say you have 2 teams....one is run heavy and the other is pass heavy. The run heavy team rushes for 300, passes for 50...the pass heavy team is vice versa. I'm taking the run heavy team in the 'W' column more times than not. For example....look at Texas Tech during the Leach era (and FYI, I'm a huge fan of Leach)....every year he had 5,000+yd passers and went what on average...8-5 give or take a game? You show me a team that rushes for 5,000+ yds and I'll show you a team that doesn't come close to losing a game, let alone 5. |
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Post by silkyice on Mar 19, 2012 19:33:30 GMT -6
The guy who gave the turnover differential stats was speaking on the topic, Drills to Create Takeaways. Coach I realize that referencing this type of data flows well with that type of clinic topic, but I think that the whole "drilling to create turnover thing" is a bit overrated, particularly at the higher levels. I have never come a cross a college team that doesn't do a turnover circuit... and most H.S teams I have been associated with do them as well. I always find it kind of interesting to see a coach talking about his "turnover drills" in clinic season because they led district/league, conference, country etc...in turnover margin or turnovers created. If you ask them "is this the first year you have done these drills" I bet the answer is "nope". If they aren't a leader the following season and you ask them if they did the same circuit I bet you get a "yep" LOL. It is like the "turnover circuit" is what creates turnovers. Back when I played, I don't think any team ran a turnover circuit. But guess what, there just as many turnovers then as now. LOL |
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Post by shotgunfivewide5 on Mar 19, 2012 20:11:10 GMT -6
a couple of things, a while back i used to throw the ball a ton, i had some great athletes and good decision makers...over the last few years we have had to run the ball and i took something an old coach told me and tried to put it to good use...he always stated that if a team could rush for 225 yards per game they would be hard to beat....our goal was 225 and to run the ball 40+ times a game.....when we have done that we have lost twice.....once by 4 and once by 3, running it over 50 times we have never lost....during the first 8 or 9 years i broke down wins and loses and came up with this stat for my career....stupid as it is the breaking points on scoring points and stopping people from scoring points was at 22 points per game...if we could score that many per game and hold our opponent to 21 or under our winning percentage went through the roof.... stupid i know but looking back over our last few seasons if we scored 22 points we would have never won less than 8 games a year...you asked and i told you
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Post by td4tc on Mar 20, 2012 21:29:04 GMT -6
Tony Demeo did a nice piece on this on his website.in the articles section.he really hates the "Espn stats" that announcers talk about("time of possession is only important to an exorsist")..as Larry Bird said "some guys put up numbers and some guys win championships"
He did a "meaningful stats" talk at a clinic and plugged it in to D2 games to come up with his stuff
hope i get this right but main keys are turnover ratio (+2 resulted in huge win percentage), non offensive TD, holding opponent to <16 and scoring >25
i would add that costly untimely penalties act almost like turnovers for us (easy way to lose) but not sure how to include them
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Post by TMGPG on Mar 21, 2012 6:01:03 GMT -6
The 2 big stats that we talk about is winning the turnover battle and missed tackles. We figure that most kids are going to bust their butt trying to get to the ball but if we can make the tackles and not allow the big plays to happen we can win the game.
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Post by mattharris75 on Mar 21, 2012 8:25:38 GMT -6
i would add that costly untimely penalties act almost like turnovers for us (easy way to lose) but not sure how to include them I'm not sure of the best way to quantify that type of penalty, but we all know when they occur. We call them 'Drive killers'. |
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Post by fantom on Mar 21, 2012 8:47:29 GMT -6
i would add that costly untimely penalties act almost like turnovers for us (easy way to lose) but not sure how to include them I'm not sure of the best way to quantify that type of penalty, but we all know when they occur. We call them 'Drive killers'. Funny that you mention that. I was thinking the other way- "Drive Extenders". I'd love to see a study about the percentage of times that an offense goes on to score after a roughing the kicker or on a PI after a 3rd down stop. Orr asked whether being stopped on 4th down would be considered a turnover. Although I doubt that they are for official stats, I would. I'd consider a "Drive Extending Penalty" a turnover, too. Really, a roughing the kicker penalty is no different than a fumbled punt. |
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