Post by texas21 on Jul 31, 2006 20:16:50 GMT -6
I was reading a book on football today discussing the best approaches to attack a defense. Here is what the book said.
At the prow level when a team has a 300 yard passer in a game it only has a 50 percent chance of winning.
When a running back has a 100 yard day the team wins 80 percent of the time.
Then I see on this board the thread about "big plays."
Now I think all of these stats can be misleading because of the nature of the game.
Lets look at the first two, the 300 yard passer and the 100 yard running back. My first argument against this stat: with the format of the NFL where most teams have more than one guy get carries, (running back by committee) but only one guy playing quarterback. So the team that has the 100 yard running back probably put up a lot more rushing yards than that. But that isn't my big argument. When one team is firmly ahead say by more than 10 points. Their run/pass ratio changes quite a bit, as does the team that is behind. So the team that is behind racks up more passing yards while the team that is ahead piles up the running yards.
There are some things I would like to see that would make this stat more valid. For instance removing blowouts from the mix. If a game gets to be a two score difference- throw it out. Keep it with games that stay close and competitive.
The next stat, the one about the big play causing scores, I think this has to do with two thing.
1) Field Position
2) The way a defense is set up
Field position-
The book I looked at went on to break down probability of scoring upon reaching various field positions. *I assume they are talking about touchdowns and not field goals looking at these stats.
It gave three different stats so I will put up the one that to me seems like it gives the most detail. (I didn't come up with this, this is straight out of the book "Coaching Football."
Goal to -20........ 3%
-20 to -40.......... 12%
50..................... 20%
+40................... 33%
+20................... 50%
+10................... 50%
I feel these stats affect play calling. Now most coaches may not think, "I am inside my own 20 I only have a 3% chance of scoring." They may say "I am backed-up, gotta be conservative.
As they get out between the 40's this is when they look for the big play. This is where most coaches will break out the "flea flicker, reverse, reverse pass, or other trick play DESIGNED to make a big play. If they are on their own 40 and hit a 25 yard play they are suddenly on their opponents 35 and odds of scoring just shot up.
Defensive formation:
The other thing, if a player breaks a 25+ yard play that player has made it past the line, the linebackers and only has one or two guys left to beat and it will be a touchdown. So I think another reason the big play increases your scoring so much is because the big play IS the score.
I just got to thinking about this driving to and from class. I might be full of it.... but hey just a few thoughts.
At the prow level when a team has a 300 yard passer in a game it only has a 50 percent chance of winning.
When a running back has a 100 yard day the team wins 80 percent of the time.
Then I see on this board the thread about "big plays."
Now I think all of these stats can be misleading because of the nature of the game.
Lets look at the first two, the 300 yard passer and the 100 yard running back. My first argument against this stat: with the format of the NFL where most teams have more than one guy get carries, (running back by committee) but only one guy playing quarterback. So the team that has the 100 yard running back probably put up a lot more rushing yards than that. But that isn't my big argument. When one team is firmly ahead say by more than 10 points. Their run/pass ratio changes quite a bit, as does the team that is behind. So the team that is behind racks up more passing yards while the team that is ahead piles up the running yards.
There are some things I would like to see that would make this stat more valid. For instance removing blowouts from the mix. If a game gets to be a two score difference- throw it out. Keep it with games that stay close and competitive.
The next stat, the one about the big play causing scores, I think this has to do with two thing.
1) Field Position
2) The way a defense is set up
Field position-
The book I looked at went on to break down probability of scoring upon reaching various field positions. *I assume they are talking about touchdowns and not field goals looking at these stats.
It gave three different stats so I will put up the one that to me seems like it gives the most detail. (I didn't come up with this, this is straight out of the book "Coaching Football."
Goal to -20........ 3%
-20 to -40.......... 12%
50..................... 20%
+40................... 33%
+20................... 50%
+10................... 50%
I feel these stats affect play calling. Now most coaches may not think, "I am inside my own 20 I only have a 3% chance of scoring." They may say "I am backed-up, gotta be conservative.
As they get out between the 40's this is when they look for the big play. This is where most coaches will break out the "flea flicker, reverse, reverse pass, or other trick play DESIGNED to make a big play. If they are on their own 40 and hit a 25 yard play they are suddenly on their opponents 35 and odds of scoring just shot up.
Defensive formation:
The other thing, if a player breaks a 25+ yard play that player has made it past the line, the linebackers and only has one or two guys left to beat and it will be a touchdown. So I think another reason the big play increases your scoring so much is because the big play IS the score.
I just got to thinking about this driving to and from class. I might be full of it.... but hey just a few thoughts.
