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Post by dubber on Jun 14, 2011 17:24:04 GMT -6
Given a choice, in which situation would you rather find your team:
1.) You have a 2 to 1 advantage in time of possession (so, you have the ball for 32 minutes), but your starting field position is the 25.
2.) You have a 1 to 2 disadvantage in time of possession (so, you only have the ball for 16 minutes), but your starting field position is the 40.
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Post by jpdaley25 on Jun 14, 2011 20:47:55 GMT -6
Put me down for a number one with a side order of "no turnovers."
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Post by dubber on Jun 14, 2011 20:49:58 GMT -6
Put me down for a number one with a side order of "no turnovers." The interesting part for me is WHY? |
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Post by fantom on Jun 14, 2011 21:25:55 GMT -6
Given a choice, in which situation would you rather find your team: 1.) You have a 2 to 1 advantage in time of possession (so, you have the ball for 32 minutes), but your starting field position is the 25. 2.) You have a 1 to 2 disadvantage in time of possession (so, you only have the ball for 16 minutes), but your starting field position is the 40. Given the two choices I'd take #1. Neither is ideal but given the two choices I don't think the 15 yard differential on starting field position is worth the TOP. That may just be the DC in me. |
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Post by julien on Jun 14, 2011 22:50:16 GMT -6
Given a choice, in which situation would you rather find your team: 1.) You have a 2 to 1 advantage in time of possession (so, you have the ball for 32 minutes), but your starting field position is the 25. 2.) You have a 1 to 2 disadvantage in time of possession (so, you only have the ball for 16 minutes), but your starting field position is the 40. Given the two choices I'd take #1. Neither is ideal but given the two choices I don't think the 15 yard differential on starting field position is worth the TOP. That may just be the DC in me. I agree with fantom, even if I am an offensive guy. I'll go with #1 choice. |
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Post by coachguy83 on Jun 14, 2011 23:32:14 GMT -6
Not to sound like a smartass but I'm going to go with the one that leads to me having more points than they do. I have never really been one to look at time of possession as a factor to whether or not we're winning and I am a huge fan of grind it out offenses like the Double Wing. That being said I guess I would rather have the extra 15 yards of field position if it means we are scoring quickly.
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Post by Coach Huey on Jun 15, 2011 4:44:56 GMT -6
starting field position has been proven to be a major factor in a scoring drive and has been found statistically viable to winning.
time of possession has not been as definitely proven to be a part of the winning formula.
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Post by lilbuck1103 on Jun 15, 2011 5:08:07 GMT -6
TOP is perhaps the most overrated stat in the game of football. I'll use Brian Kelly's Cincinnati team from a few years back. They were almost last in the nation in TOP and only lost one game.
Starting field position on the other hand has been proven to increase scoring percentage. Having to to 60 yards is alot easier than trying to go 75.
TOP is really overrated, but field position is not.
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Post by coachwoodall on Jun 15, 2011 6:39:14 GMT -6
Looking at stats for the past several years for us, TOP is something we never win. While the difference might not be 2-1, we rarely are ahead in TOP.
In high school, seldom does a team consistently drive the ball down the field. Most scoring drives are the result of a big play, on the score, to set up the score, or from the turnover/ST play that sets up the drive.
While maintaining possession of the ball is tantamount in being successful, having the ball and not scoring seldom equates success; save for the end of game situation where the team that is ahead is just trying to run out the clock.
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Post by wingtol on Jun 15, 2011 7:02:06 GMT -6
Give me the starting field position any day over time of possession. You could have 2-1 TOP advantage but does that mean you ran any more plays than the other team or moved the ball better than they did? Put me closer to the goal line every time, there are too many factors in TOP for it to be that big of an advantage, it's not how long you have the ball but what you do with the ball when you have it.
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Post by spreadattack on Jun 15, 2011 8:12:31 GMT -6
Given a choice, in which situation would you rather find your team: 1.) You have a 2 to 1 advantage in time of possession (so, you have the ball for 32 minutes), but your starting field position is the 25. 2.) You have a 1 to 2 disadvantage in time of possession (so, you only have the ball for 16 minutes), but your starting field position is the 40. #2 -- easy. TOP is probably down too because I'm scoring more. |
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Post by calkayne on Jun 15, 2011 8:30:41 GMT -6
Given a choice, in which situation would you rather find your team: 1.) You have a 2 to 1 advantage in time of possession (so, you have the ball for 32 minutes), but your starting field position is the 25. 2.) You have a 1 to 2 disadvantage in time of possession (so, you only have the ball for 16 minutes), but your starting field position is the 40. Assuming that in Option 1 the Field position is my 25 and Option 2 is their 40. I will take Option 2. It leads to more scoring. Not just touchdowns, but Fieldgoals. The better the FP the less I need the TOP. If I have a decent Kicker I might not need to get more than 1 first down to be in range. Pinning the Offence outside of their comfort zone also shrinks their available playbook. It also has a Psychological advantage in that the other Coaches will need to take big risks for little reward and the players are put under more pressure to execute. |
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Post by fantom on Jun 15, 2011 10:09:57 GMT -6
[quote author=calkayne board=general thread=46929 post=453383 time=1308148241Assuming that in Option 1 the Field position is my 25 and Option 2 is their 40.[/quote]
You can't assume that. He didn't say that. If he clears it up and says that it is the +40 then I'll change my vote.
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Post by thakatalyst on Jun 15, 2011 10:57:31 GMT -6
I'll take the starting field position. At the HS level, like Coach Huey said, is a big factor in scoring points. As a defensive guy, I don't want to be on the field that long, but our O starting on the 45 almost always guarantees me a field position advantage defensively.
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Post by dubber on Jun 15, 2011 11:28:22 GMT -6
[quote author=calkayne board=general thread=46929 post=453383 time=1308148241Assuming that in Option 1 the Field position is my 25 and Option 2 is their 40. You can't assume that. He didn't say that. If he clears it up and says that it is the +40 then I'll change my vote. [/quote] Just to clarify, we are talking YOUR OWN 40 and 25.......so, 60 and 75 yards to GL respectively. |
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Post by blb on Jun 15, 2011 11:31:15 GMT -6
In 2006 we were 9-1. In only one of those games did we have more TOP than our opponents.
We had 26 scoring "drives" (if you can call them that) of three plays or less.
Extreme example probably but emphasizes that big plays win football games, not how long you can hang onto the ball.
And the better field position you have, the more chances you have for big plays.
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Post by fantom on Jun 15, 2011 11:33:41 GMT -6
[quote author=calkayne board=general thread=46929 post=453383 time=1308148241Assuming that in Option 1 the Field position is my 25 and Option 2 is their 40. You can't assume that. He didn't say that. If he clears it up and says that it is the +40 then I'll change my vote. Just to clarify, we are talking YOUR OWN 40 and 25.......so, 60 and 75 yards to GL respectively. [/quote] Thanks. That's what I thought. I'll still take the TOP. |
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Post by coachd5085 on Jun 15, 2011 11:51:53 GMT -6
In 2006 we were 9-1. In only one of those games did we have more TOP than our opponents. We had 26 scoring "drives" (if you can call them that) of three plays or less. Extreme example probably but emphasizes that big plays win football games, not how long you can hang onto the ball. And the better field position you have, the more chances you have for big plays. Coach, I don't understand where you are coming from here. I don't understand how your starting position (other than being backed up) gives you a better chance to CREATE a big play. I would say that possessing the ball for 32 out of 48 minutes would result in more chances for big plays. Right? |
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Post by coachd5085 on Jun 15, 2011 13:03:46 GMT -6
Thanks. That's what I thought. I'll still take the TOP. I am with fantom on this one. While in a general I agree with most posting here that TOP is less valuable than starting field position, the SPECIFICS given in this question lead me to choose the 2-1 TOP over an additional 15 yards of field position--in which I only have 16 minutes to utilize this field position. Also, depending on my offensive tempo, exactly HOW MANY possessions do I get to start at the 40? |
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Post by Coach Huey on Jun 15, 2011 13:55:38 GMT -6
this is almost a meaningless discussion because it is unclear as to WHY I only have the ball for 16 minutes and WHY does my opponent have it for 32...
There are so many reasons that could lead to this. Do we have an abundance of explosive plays? Are they only averaging 3 yards per snap? Do any drives end in points? What type? Are they scoring at will? Are we going 3 and out?
So, for me ... since we don't know any of that ... then I will take field position. I have about a 15-20% greater chance of scoring from the -40 than I do from the -25. The fewer 1st downs one has to get to score - the greater the chances for a TD .... Always needing 1 & a half less first downs, equates to an "extra" scoring drive because I am more likely to be more efficient in my possessions.
Again ... cute topic ... but doesn't it need something more than what was originally thrown out? What is there really to discuss other than what I took it to mean .... "Would you rather 'own' the TOP battle or 'own' the starting field position battle?"
These are 'end of game' scenarios ... destinations if you will, rather than a discussion on the journey. So, no... we don't set out to win any time of possession. The clock or our own TOP is typically only a factor at the end of a game or half ... i.e. 4-minute offense, etc. However, we are always thinking about the field position battle.
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Post by thakatalyst on Jun 15, 2011 15:39:49 GMT -6
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Post by coachd5085 on Jun 15, 2011 15:47:10 GMT -6
Again ... cute topic ... but doesn't it need something more than what was originally thrown out? What is there really to discuss other than what I took it to mean .... "Would you rather 'own' the TOP battle or 'own' the starting field position battle?" I agree, there wasn't much to go on. That is why I am so surprised that so many people picked the 2nd option. The 2nd option gives no assurances that you "own" the starting position battle. It only states that you started at the 40, and had the ball for only 16 minutes. That doesn't preclude the other team from starting at THEIR 40 and holding the ball for 32 minutes. With regards to TOP being overrated, I agree to an extent. Yes, countless stats show that having the TOP advantage doesn't necessarily directly correlate to wins. However, there is a distinct difference between just winning the TOP, and having a 2 to 1 advantage in TOP. So would having a TOP of 26, 27 show a huge statistical advantage? Probably not. Would having a TOP of 31, 32, 33 minutes??? I think it might. |
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Post by blb on Jun 15, 2011 16:06:22 GMT -6
Coach, I don't understand where you are coming from here. I don't understand how your starting position (other than being backed up) gives you a better chance to CREATE a big play. I would say that possessing the ball for 32 out of 48 minutes would result in more chances for big plays. Right? That depends on 3 things, IMO: 1) Are you a ball control coach or "big play guy"? 2) Your Offensive personnel. Do you have skill kids that can make big plays (obviously we did in previous example)? 3) Your Defense and Kicking Game. Can they keep you from playing Offense deep in your own end of field? Also - in addition to the stats I posted earlier - we wre plus 14 in turnovers that season. Another consideration: Our opponents basically knew they were going to have to out-score us to have a chance to win. So, if they played "keep away", i.e., ball control, they were playing into our hands. And psychologically from a Defensive standpoint - it's demoralizing when you're playing on a short field most of the time, and/or you know that you can play good Defense for a play or two or three - and then give up a home run. Especially if you don't have confidence in your Offense to answer if they have to drive the long field or make big play(s) of their own. I know that is not always the case. But it won't be if you don't try to set it up. |
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Post by coachd5085 on Jun 15, 2011 16:19:07 GMT -6
Coach, I don't understand where you are coming from here. I don't understand how your starting position (other than being backed up) gives you a better chance to CREATE a big play. I would say that possessing the ball for 32 out of 48 minutes would result in more chances for big plays. Right? That depends on 3 things, IMO: 1) Are you a ball control coach or "big play guy"? 2) Your Offensive personnel. Do you have skill kids that can make big plays (obviously we did in previous example)? 3) Your Defense and Kicking Game. Can they keep you from playing Offense deep in your own end of field? Also - in addition to the stats I posted earlier - we wre plus 14 in turnovers that season. Another consideration: Our opponents basically knew they were going to have to out-score us to have a chance to win. So, if they played "keep away", i.e., ball control, they were playing into our hands. And psychologically from a Defensive standpoint - it's demoralizing when you're playing on a short field most of the time, and/or you know that you can play good Defense for a play or two or three - and then give up a home run. Especially if you don't have confidence in your Offense to answer if they have to drive the long field or make big play(s) of their own. I know that is not always the case. But it won't be if you don't try to set it up. Coach,I understand all that. I was just confused by your statement that starting at the -40 but only having the ball for 16 minutes would lead to more big plays than starting at the -25 but having the ball for 32 minutes. Thus insinuating that starting at the -40 LEADS to more big plays than starting at the -25. |
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Post by blb on Jun 15, 2011 16:56:22 GMT -6
d5085, that wasn't me.
Somebody else was talking about -25 and +/-40.
The object is to get the ball in the end zone.
Not see how many plays you can run prior.
And again - big plays (Offense, Defense, Special Teams) win games.
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Post by blb on Jun 15, 2011 17:17:48 GMT -6
Another personal example (hey, we're all products of our own experiences, positive and negative):
Few years ago (my Halftimers' prohibits remembering exactly when), a coach we played against was quoted thusly in next day's newspaper:
"It was an even game. We played them fairly equal except for about six big plays. You take those six plays out, and it was an even game."
We won 40-0.
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Post by coachd5085 on Jun 15, 2011 20:20:37 GMT -6
And the better field position you have, the more chances you have for big plays. That was the quote I was referencing blb. I thought you were attributing the "better field position" as choosing -40 with 16 minutes of possession as opposed to the -25 with 32 minutes. I am still interested in why you feel--other than coming out--that better field position provides more chances to create big plays. For example, In your SBV, if the DT doesn't close and take dive, the FB is rumbling through the secondary in a blink. Big play. If a safety cheats up and the corner peeks, the veer pass post stings quick. Big play. Why does "better" field position provide more chances for those plays to pop. |
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Post by thakatalyst on Jun 15, 2011 20:30:38 GMT -6
We are all just playing devil's advocate here because there isn't much to go on. Now that I'm no longer at school, I'm going to pop open a beer because this sounds like the kind of debates we've had on our staff - which side of the ball is easier to call?
The more I read blb's and d5085's posts, the more difficult it is to decide between the two options! There are just so many factors.
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Post by coachd5085 on Jun 15, 2011 20:50:32 GMT -6
We are all just playing devil's advocate here because there isn't much to go on. Now that I'm no longer at school, I'm going to pop open a beer because this sounds like the kind of debates we've had on our staff - which side of the ball is easier to call? The more I read blb's and d5085's posts, the more difficult it is to decide between the two options! There are just so many factors. I think some things are "clear" from this post. As stated, in general field position is more important than time of possession. In this particular hypothetical though, with the limited info and wide open interpretation possibilities, I believe the degree of differential is the deciding factor. |
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Post by blb on Jun 16, 2011 5:10:11 GMT -6
Besides examples you gave, d5085 - between the 40s I for one would be more likely to take a deep PAP shot (especially on 1st Down) when secondary is cheating on option because even if ball is interdamncepted, it has an effect similar to a punt - your Defense is not put in poor field position.
When inside opponents' 35, we are in 4-down territory so obviously there are more opportunities because we will not punt on 4th Down. Also the Defense has its back to the wall, is more likely to gamble, and therefore is more susceptible to a "big play."
In both instances the playbook is going to be more open than when coming out, as you said.
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