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Post by phantom on Feb 8, 2010 12:52:12 GMT -6
I'm hearing talk on ESPN (Cowherd) that NO's going for it on 4th and goal near the end of the first half was a sign of a huge change in football strategic thinking. I had to laugh. I'm pretty conservative and never thought that they'd do anything else but go for it.
What was there to lose? 4th and 1 with less than 2 minutes left in the half? If they didn't make it, you knew that Indy would do exactly what they did- try to run out the clock and get out of there.
Going for it on 4th down there wasn't some "new age" thinking. That's been the "by the book" move for a long time.
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Post by windigo on Feb 8, 2010 12:57:05 GMT -6
I'm hearing talk on ESPN (Cowherd) that NO's going for it on 4th and goal near the end of the first half was a sign of a huge change in football strategic thinking. I had to laugh. I'm pretty conservative and never thought that they'd do anything else but go for it. What was there to lose? 4th and 1 with less than 2 minutes left in the half? If they didn't make it, you knew that Indy would do exactly what they did- try to run out the clock and get out of there. Going for it on 4th down there wasn't some "new age" thinking. That's been the "by the book" move for a long time. Yep, still dont know for the life of me why you would try and hit the edge on a fast defense 2 times in a row though. Run right the @#%^ at them.
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Post by realdawg on Feb 8, 2010 13:00:09 GMT -6
I was betting on some kind of playaction boot with a crossing route. I agreed with the decision to go for it, I disagreed with the playcall.
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Post by John Knight on Feb 8, 2010 13:37:59 GMT -6
Just take the points! It is the first half!!
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Post by coach4life on Feb 8, 2010 14:02:39 GMT -6
Great decision. You take the 3 you give Manning time to work his magic in the 2 minute drill with say 70 yards or so to go (assuming a squib kick) and you're going to kick to them to start the next half. Nothing you can do about the kickoff (or so we thought) but you can control where he gets the ball. So you either score 6, or take away their opportunity to put up any points. Even Manning couldn't go 90-whatever yards it was in that amount of time.
To Phantom's point it was a no-brainer, but I have to admit the folks I was watching it with thought they should have taken the 3.
Brilliant job by the Saints' coaches in mixing up the defensive scheme in the 1st half, 3rd and 4th quarters. The go for the TD call was (to me) obvious, but the onside kick - we're talkin' some big boy kahuna's there! If that didn't work the "experts" (and most fans) might be talking about S. Payton's stupid decisions, like going for the TD instead of taking the points and what an idiot to go onside and make it easy for he Colts to score. Smart, courageous - the definitely deserved that win.
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Post by coachd5085 on Feb 8, 2010 19:52:08 GMT -6
i don't think it was a "no brainer". I would just say it wasn't such a maverick or ballsy call, BUT i guarantee you that at 17-16 Colts the idea of those 3 points were swimming in the back of Coach Payton's head.
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Post by phantom on Feb 8, 2010 20:11:03 GMT -6
i don't think it was a "no brainer". I would just say it wasn't such a maverick or ballsy call, BUT i guarantee you that at 17-16 Colts the idea of those 3 points were swimming in the back of Coach Payton's head. Why? They got the points.
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Post by spreadattack on Feb 8, 2010 20:28:27 GMT -6
phantom: I agree that the ESPN person is overboard but this thread is an example of why it wasn't exactly conventional wisdom to go for it. A lot of people still think in terms of "take the points" and not in terms of possible outcomes. As you said, they really made out fine: they got the 3 anyway AND got a shot at a TD (even if they didn't get it). I think you should almost always go for those 4th and ones, and it became even easier with that little time left.
New age? No. But not conventional wisdom either.
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Post by coachd5085 on Feb 8, 2010 20:42:07 GMT -6
i don't think it was a "no brainer". I would just say it wasn't such a maverick or ballsy call, BUT i guarantee you that at 17-16 Colts the idea of those 3 points were swimming in the back of Coach Payton's head. Why? They got the points. True....brainfart.
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Post by cc on Feb 8, 2010 20:46:29 GMT -6
I never thought of this as conventional wisdom. I was shocked by the play call. I thought they should have kicked the field goal. Imagine if they did that and stopped them like they did and kicked ANOTHER field goal, so yes they may have lost 3 points.
But in hindsight I do so how the call makes sense. It was a good calculated risk that paid off with no real loss.
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Post by coach4life on Feb 9, 2010 7:57:20 GMT -6
I'm not so sure I would categorize it was an aggressive offensive decision, I see it more as a defensive call in terms of keeping the Colts potential to score points down with the added benefit of possibly gaining points. The thing that made it a no brainer (to me anyway) was the guy on the other side. Manning and the Colts have shown time and time again that in a 2 minute situation where you can't sub easily and don't have time to do anything fancy on defense they can tear it up. If I get the 3 I'm leery about kicking it deep and giving up a game changing return. I'm probably going to squib it giving them the ball at the 30 or better. I'd much rather leave them 90+ yards to go for six with the time that was left than 70 or less, plus if I score I've got the points to match what they might do. Factor in the kicking to them to start the second half and there is no way I want Manning to have room to score at the end of the half.
Now if it wasn't a Manning, Breeze, or Warner (and probably a few others) but was say Sanchez (not picking on him, I just haven't seen him put together a 2 minute drill like those guys can) I take the 3 as the no brainer.
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Post by warriorhog51 on Feb 9, 2010 9:33:02 GMT -6
If there are 5 minutes left on the clock, I take the three. With 2 minutes or less, I would go for it. My wife actually paused it (gotta love DVR) and asked me what I would do. Go for it because with a guy like Manning, you don't want to give them decent field position and time to run their 2-mintue drill. If you get the TD and have to give it back to them, no big deal the game is tied, lets play some defense. If you don't get it, they don't have enough room to comfortably run their offense. If you kick the three, your still behind, giving the ball to Manning and Co. with decent field position, and plenty of time to work with. It makes too much sense to me to not go for it in that situation.
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Post by gdoggwr on Feb 9, 2010 13:46:45 GMT -6
I never thought of this as conventional wisdom. I was shocked by the play call. I thought they should have kicked the field goal. Imagine if they did that and stopped them like they did and kicked ANOTHER field goal, so yes they may have lost 3 points. But in hindsight I do so how the call makes sense. It was a good calculated risk that paid off with no real loss. just playing devil's advocate, but the probably don't get a second fieldgoal if the kick it, because Indy gets better field position off of the ensueing kickoff. even if 3 and out, the punter is kicking from the 20 or 30, saints get it on their own 30ish... Personally I was thinking bootpass and not stretchy play to the right... but I ain't got no rings so what do I know!
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Post by coachinghopeful on Feb 9, 2010 21:05:29 GMT -6
Cowherd's a professional moron. He's one of that annoying breed of radio show hosts who has a career only because he's good at spouting off totally uniformed opinions for hours at a time and making it sound lively and interesting.
As for the decision, I thought that Payton did the smart thing too, but a lot of people would have gone for the FG just to get points on the board. Especially in the Superbowl against Peyton Manning with the Saints' barely rolling offensively.
As it was, Payton pinned the Colts too deep to do anything with the ball (though with Peyton Manning that's not necessarily a given), then got it back with enough time to STILL get the FG. That was a nice move.
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Post by hamerhead on Feb 9, 2010 21:29:39 GMT -6
I was screaming "Take the points!" also. I understand the logic given the situation, with Indy all but forced to run out the clock, and I understand they ended up getting points out of it anyway, but they had no way of knowing that. Surely they weren't SO scared of Manning that they were convinced he'd score with under two minutes and a 70-80 yard field. It was still the first half, they were gonna have to stop him at some point in the game anyway, little early to give up on your defense and show desperation.
The way the game had been going, three points there coulda been huge, and who's to say that they don't force Indy to punt and still get a shot anyway? Either that or Indy runs the clock out after the kickoff, at which point, you're still better off having taken the three.
In high school ball with a dicey kicker and even riskier snap/hold/protection, sure I'm going. It wasn't a HUGE mistake either way. Just saying in the Super Bowl....I'm taking the points.
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Post by iacoachq on Feb 9, 2010 22:31:29 GMT -6
I'm taking the points. Especially if my team is depending on a turnover to win the game.
If it's anytime in the fourth I'm going for it tho.
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Post by Yash on Feb 9, 2010 22:58:56 GMT -6
I would have taken the points, but I do not object to them going for it. I just didnt' like the call. I don't let them load the box and run to a blunt edge with a corner waiting to make the play. If I run the ball there I run it from a spread formation. I find the numbers and take advantage of it. I like a pass like they ran with Lance Moore on the 2 pt play.
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hoosier
Sophomore Member
Posts: 176
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Post by hoosier on Feb 10, 2010 10:17:48 GMT -6
i like the decision to go for it (not so much the play call though). i think your best chance to win is to not give Maning a chance to win (or score more points). i also believe that was Belichek's thinking in the regular season game in Indy
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Post by phantom on Feb 10, 2010 10:38:51 GMT -6
i like the decision to go for it (not so much the play call though). i think your best chance to win is to not give Maning a chance to win (or score more points). i also believe that was Belichek's thinking in the regular season game in Indy 4th and goal on the 1 with 2 minutes left in the half is a lot different from 4th and 2 on your own 30 with the lead near the end of the game. Going for it on 4th and goal isn't especially "out of the box" because the other guy has to go 99. The reason that Elway's "The Drive" gets capitalized is because it doesn't happen often. Given the amount of time left in the half the percentages say that you have a good chance to get the ball back.
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Post by coachguy83 on Feb 10, 2010 10:49:59 GMT -6
I am going for it in that situation also. Best case scenerio you get a touchdown and worst case you make Indy go the length of the field with two minutes left. Once you weigh risk vs. reward I think you go for it, and in the end because of overly conservative playcalling on the other side you end up with 3.
If anything shows a sign of change in football strategy in the NFL it was the onside kick. That call to me shows that at least a few coaches at the highest level still believe in playing to win the game rather than to not lose the game.
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Post by coachinghopeful on Feb 10, 2010 20:47:04 GMT -6
The thing that's gotten overlooked in the talk about the onside kick is that this wasn't just some spur of the moment call. The Saints had noticed Baskett bailing early on film and thought they had a great shot at recovering an onside kick if they went after him. They practiced the kick all week and announced the call to the players at the beginning of halftime. Then they kicked it at Baskett who, sure enough, got caught bailing early. It was just a great job of scouting and preparation by the Saints.
Actually, I wrote a whole blog post on this game and what I thought were some really good decisions on Payton's part (and some bad ones on Manning's/the Colts'), if anyone's interested. You can click the link below.
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hoosier
Sophomore Member
Posts: 176
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Post by hoosier on Feb 11, 2010 10:10:36 GMT -6
i like the decision to go for it (not so much the play call though). i think your best chance to win is to not give Maning a chance to win (or score more points). i also believe that was Belichek's thinking in the regular season game in Indy 4th and goal on the 1 with 2 minutes left in the half is a lot different from 4th and 2 on your own 30 with the lead near the end of the game. Going for it on 4th and goal isn't especially "out of the box" because the other guy has to go 99. The reason that Elway's "The Drive" gets capitalized is because it doesn't happen often. Given the amount of time left in the half the percentages say that you have a good chance to get the ball back. i dont disagree, but do you think Payton and Belichek were both thinking "i dont want to give Manning the ball" in those situations? which led to their final decisions. earlier in the game the Colts completed the longest drive in SB history with a TD
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