Malcolm Gladwell's QB Problem

It is interesting. Reminds of me of Jimmy Johnson's explanation of the Hershell Walker trade and why he liked to trade down so much in the draft and focus on quantity, rather than quality: "When you're trying to catch fish, you want the biggest net you can get." A lot of people thought he was crazy to pass on so many "can't miss" players to "gamble" on 3 borderline prospects like Erik Wiliams, Leon Lett, Darrin Smith, etc (along with dozens of guys nobody remembers) later on.

Most NFL dynasties and consistently good teams have taken similar approaches. Seems like it's always the ones who spend all their money chasing "sure things" because they're "just a player or two away" that wind up scratching their heads wondering why they're sitting at home in January as they plot who they'll throw their next $50 million at in the offseason.

I think any MS or HS coach on here would already be familiar with these ideas--we all know how important it is to have big numbers turn out if you want to be successful. Schools that only get 30 guys to turn out in the fall just don't tend to win as many games as schools who start with 80. Coaches also know better than anyone how important to relate to kids 1-on-1 and keep them engaged and focused if you want them to learn.

I like the idea of applying this strategy to filling other jobs like teaching, etc, but even if you substantially increase funding, one of the implications is that you'd still have to substantially lower beginning teacher salaries to make this work economically, then weed out unsuccessful teachers over their first 2-3 years. I doubt any teacher on here would have survived their first couple of years on half what they got, even if you offset problems in recruiting by streamlining the certification requirements, offering performance incentives, and giving the ones who stick a big salary increase after their "apprentice" period. You'd also have to offer some type of performance incentives for established teachers to prevent them from getting complacent and lazy. All of that's assuming you can come up with a decent way to figure out which teachers are "good" and which are "bad," which is a whole other can of worms. What school system could afford to hire a pricey control consulting firm to constantly evaluate teachers on the basis of videotaped class performance?

Americans hate taxes almost as much as politicians are allergic to increasing them, so where would you ever get the money for these things? I believe some states have laws against fund-raising efforts of any kind.