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Post by stone65 on Dec 9, 2008 9:57:31 GMT -6
Do any of ya'll have a list of stats that are closely associated with winning football games?
For example:
Urban Meyer says that if a team blocks a punt they have a 90% chance of winning the game.
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Post by pegleg on Dec 9, 2008 10:01:58 GMT -6
Turn Over Margin
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Post by bigdog2003 on Dec 9, 2008 11:03:59 GMT -6
Penalty yards.
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Post by groundchuck on Dec 9, 2008 11:11:29 GMT -6
Turnover margin Hey.........wouldn't points scored vs points allowed be the most important stat associated with winning football games?!  |
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Post by stone65 on Dec 9, 2008 11:21:36 GMT -6
those are good. any more?
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Post by phantom on Dec 9, 2008 11:22:52 GMT -6
Turnover margin Hey.........wouldn't points scored vs points allowed be the most important stat associated with winning football games?! One would think wouldn't one. I used to do these statistical analyses but stats come after the fact. Everybody knows that penalties are bad and so are turnovers. If you can't stop the run you're done. All of the other stuff is interesting but only that. That's just my opinion. I agree with Chuck- score more than the other guys. |
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Post by rip60zgo on Dec 9, 2008 11:27:31 GMT -6
I think AFM did a study on this a year or two ago. I believe the number 1 statistic they came up with was scoring defense. If I remember correctly, this was based on the high school championship teams that had returned their questionnaire. Maybe this is obvious, but if the other team can't score, they can't win. I do think scoring offense and rushing defense were fairly high as well. Edit: **Link to the first article in the series** www.americanfootballmonthly.com/Subaccess/articles.php?category=&article_id=4487&output=article |
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Post by thunder17 on Dec 9, 2008 11:33:00 GMT -6
field postion (average starting field position). I think in high school this is more important than in college or the pros. I think you're pretty lucky if you find a high school kid that can consistently get off a good punt to get out of the hole when needed. I know we played on a windy saturday this year and they pinned us deep on the opening kickoff and we couldn't move the ball. They kept us pinned deep the entire 1st quarter, game was pretty much over before we got the wind.
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Post by coachwoodall on Dec 9, 2008 11:40:12 GMT -6
We keep stats from year to year and compare them. We usually look at them about half way through (when region starts) and then again near the playoffs. We look for what we are doing as well as last year and what we aren't. You could go back year to year to year, but usually that is done at the end for planning next year.
I would think that each stat that you focus on is going to be dependent on what you do. IE we are a fast paced spread team and time of possession doesn't matter to us. Whereas a DW team might want to focus on that one.
By using comparisons, you can get a gauge on what may or may not be working for you.
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htownoc
Sophomore Member
GATA
Posts: 186
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Post by htownoc on Dec 9, 2008 11:57:23 GMT -6
Brian Billick's book on offensive gameplanning list several that he looks at. I can only remember two
turnover margin
explosive plays (12+ yd runs; 17+ yd passes)
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Post by windigo on Dec 9, 2008 13:51:43 GMT -6
Nash Equilibrium
Thanx smart football
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Post by tothehouse on Dec 9, 2008 13:53:45 GMT -6
From a DC - What is our 3rd and 4th down "win" %? If we are winning on these downs then we are winning on the scoreboard.
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Post by indian1 on Dec 9, 2008 14:05:12 GMT -6
In Vanderlinden's book he says that they keep track of plays given up over 15 yds (he calls them explosion plays). His best defenses gave up less than one +15 yd play per game.
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Post by goldenbear76 on Dec 9, 2008 14:41:20 GMT -6
imho there is no one stat that matters. Each offense has a stat imho that reflects its success, and the converse is true on defense. Some defenses will give up consistant 5 yard gains on passes and force a team to convert those all the way down the field. Some defenses will blitz you till you make a mistake..both of these defenses can be successful..but in different ways. So their "important" game winning stat would be different. In my opinion stats are for fantasy football and newspaper reporters/fans. If you execute..their is only one stat that matters. W/L.
having said that...I think like someone above said...field position vs an equal level team is very important at the HS level.
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Post by coachweav88 on Dec 9, 2008 14:50:17 GMT -6
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Post by dubber on Dec 9, 2008 15:06:56 GMT -6
Brian Billick's book on offensive gameplanning list several that he looks at. I can only remember two turnover margin explosive plays (12+ yd runs; 17+ yd passes) The other two are: Success on first down and Red Zone Efficency |
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Post by groundchuck on Dec 9, 2008 15:30:02 GMT -6
The AFM article: 1. Scoring D 2. Rushing D 3. Scoring O 4. Total D 5. Pass Efficiency D 6. Passes Intercepted* 7. Passing Efficiency** 8. Total Offense 9. Takeaways 10. TO Margin *Thought that was interseting b/c, like a fumble its a TO. But picks are more likely to result in yardage or a TD for the other team than a fumble. **Had a game this year where our opponent's QB was 6-6 for 3 TDs. I would say he was efficient. The article also has an another article inset along with it talking about the "Bottom 10". In the article Todd Dodge, the former Southlake Carroll HC says that Kickoff Return yardage in high school is a pretty big deal. I would agree. This year we returned multiple kicks across our opponents 50 or further. We knew we would have the "manufacture" yards in other ways aside from offense and our kick returns coach did a heckuva job. In another game this year I attribute a loss to a long return by the other team to our 20. It happened right after we pulled within 2 points in the middle of the 4th quarter. We had shut them down all half, but now with the short field (and mojo) they scored to go up 8. Of course kickoff return yardage can be decieving. If you are piling up return yards it could be because you are returning a lot of kicks which means your scoring D sucks!  I would say KO Return average would be more important than KO return yards. |
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Post by theprez98 on Dec 9, 2008 15:46:05 GMT -6
Turnovers! As a direct result it either decreases or increases the amount of times you or your opponent have the ball. Statistical analysis shows a positive turnover margin correlates to a 59% win percentage. Apparently the only other stat that results in a higher winning % is number of running plays. However, I find this to be a bit self fulfilling. A winning team in a 4 minute offense is going to run the ball more. So did they win the game because they ran more running plays, or are they running more running plays because they're winning? |
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Post by davecisar on Dec 9, 2008 18:09:43 GMT -6
Brophy had the best analysis of this on one of his posts.
Had the correlations to winning using a variety of stats.
One of the best Ive ever seen by far.
I think 4 of the top 6 were:
Rushing Defense
Scoring Defense
Pass efficiency Defense
Turnover margin
Several that I thought would be in the top 10 werent.
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Post by cqmiller on Dec 10, 2008 10:12:35 GMT -6
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Post by zoneblitz on Dec 11, 2008 5:44:05 GMT -6
I did a study with my early teams and here are some numbers that we have on our goal board: SCORE FIRST - Win 82%, SCORE FIRST AND SECOND - Win 96% - SCORE ON A RETURN - Win 91%, WINNING AT HALFTIME - Win 88%.
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Post by gregspahn on Dec 11, 2008 9:43:39 GMT -6
We look at a couple of stats:
Average Drice Starter (comparison)
Big 10's and Big 20's
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Post by cjamerson on Dec 11, 2008 10:51:40 GMT -6
Two stats that have stood out to us over the last few seasons were:
Turnover Ratio and Sack Ratio. This is how our last two seasons played out:
Turnover Ratio
2008 = +18...30 forced and 12 allowed
2007 = -4...14 forced and 18 allowed
Sack Ratio
2008 = +14....19 forced and 5 allowed
2007 = -6...10 forced and 16 allowed
In 2007 we were 3-7, lost two games by 40+ each. In 2008, we improved to 6-4. The four losses were by a total of 28. These stats may not be considered best for everyone on evaluating their season, but they give us a measuring stick to work off of.
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nexthc
Junior Member
"The Golden Rule"
Posts: 439
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Post by nexthc on Dec 11, 2008 11:02:29 GMT -6
Turnover Ratio/Margin.
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I would say KO Return average would be more important than KO return yards.
