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Post by levydisciple on Sept 14, 2008 18:16:23 GMT -6
Cutler throws a touchdown to cut the Chargers' lead to one. Shanahan and Cutler both make the decision to go for two. Assuming you don't know the Broncos will score on the two, what would you do if you were the coach? Kick the one or try for two?
Just an interesting little question....
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Post by coachjoe3 on Sept 14, 2008 21:40:50 GMT -6
I think I kick it and take it to OT.
It one of those things that's praised if it works but you'll be kicking yourself if it doesn't - been there!
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Post by phantom on Sept 14, 2008 21:49:54 GMT -6
I'd kick.
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Post by coachwoodall on Sept 15, 2008 6:48:50 GMT -6
go for 2, in the NFL the OT is determined by the toss of a coin. It is something like 80% chance of winning for the team that wins the coin toss.
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Post by coachorr on Sept 15, 2008 6:57:16 GMT -6
Sudden Death OT and the Chargers Run Game with Antonio Gates. I'd go for it. I only watched the last few minutes of the game, but Gates was on fire.
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Post by olinecoach61 on Sept 15, 2008 7:04:31 GMT -6
I'd kick it, but Shanny's got ballz.
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Post by coachdbs on Sept 15, 2008 7:51:41 GMT -6
In the NFL...go for it. You control your own destiny unlike the coin toss. HS and NCAA...kick it!
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sbv
Sophomore Member
Posts: 171
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Post by sbv on Sept 15, 2008 8:42:28 GMT -6
I'd go for two not because of the size of my sack but because of lack of ability. My foreign exchange student kicker buckles when close (he can hit a 30-45 yarder about 80% of the time but he is only about 30% for PAT so we threw PAT out and only use him on FG).
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Post by spreadattack on Sept 15, 2008 13:36:53 GMT -6
I would have kicked, unless I was sure that the Chargers had momentum or some other strength/fatigue advantage that made my chance of winning in OT less.
The NFL two-point conversion average is only 43%, so you have a less than 50% chance of winning the game there. If you think the two teams are evenly matched, then OT is about a 50-50 shot. (Or if you think sudden death makes the coin flip matter too much, that too is 50/50.)
Of course, to get the probability of winning the game in OT you have to multiply your chance of winning in OT (let's say 50%) with the probability that your PAT is good. The NFL average for that is 94%. For NFL averages, that works out to 47% (94% x 50%).
But again, the relevant concern is whether you think your chance of winning in OT (and kicking the PAT) are less than 43%, given what you know about the game (offense stalling, defense tired, they have a great kicker with a deep leg, whatever).
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Post by spreadattack on Sept 15, 2008 13:43:25 GMT -6
In the NFL...go for it. You control your own destiny unlike the coin toss. HS and NCAA...kick it! Why is your sense of control the determining factor? |
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Post by sehested on Sept 15, 2008 15:21:17 GMT -6
Reading the first few posts I was just thinking about how to calculate and compare the percentages like spreadattack did further down the thread...I just thought that the succesrate for two-point conversions in the NFL was above 50%.
Anyway, the two-point play looked exactly like the touchdown didn't it? Bunch formation with some kinda shallow cross to Eddie Royal...
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Post by coachjimmer on Sept 15, 2008 16:10:02 GMT -6
I watched the whole Chargers-Broncos game yesterday. It was a great game. If I were Coach Shanahan, I'd go for 2. Chargers offense was tough to stop in the 2nd half and Denver defense may run on low or out of gas.
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Post by mahonz on Sept 15, 2008 17:38:33 GMT -6
Its real simple....Bolen told Shanny up at the old winter villa this off-season....I dont spend a bazillion dollars a year to watch you fumble bumble and stumble your way into 2nd place anymore. Win or yer dun. ( At least I hope thats how the conversation went ! )
The AFC West was on the line and the Broncos had everything going their way including the officiating. It was the only call to make and its about flippin' time.
This coming from a die hard Broncos fan....and the Chargers got robbed !
Coach Mike
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ram7gm
Sophomore Member
Posts: 133
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Post by ram7gm on Sept 17, 2008 3:12:42 GMT -6
On ESPN I heard it mentioned that Shanahan knew SD was out of time-outs, so they wouldn't be able to think about how to defend the 2 pt play. Good move there, if that went into the equation.
Also, I was very impressed with how Shanny ran the exact same play on the TD AND the conversion. All too often us coaches get too fancy, thinking we always need a different play/different formation/different motion. Why?? RUN WHAT WORKS!! It obviously worked on the TD and he probably figured SD would never expect the exact same play again, so why not?
Incredibly gutsy in today's "play-it-safe" NFL. I was impressed and wouldn't be surprised to see Denver take that momentum and make a run, especially in this year's upside down AFC.
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Post by pegleg on Sept 17, 2008 14:32:20 GMT -6
go for it all day everyday...........
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Post by Yash on Sept 17, 2008 18:17:16 GMT -6
With the defense we have this year, and the offense we have this year, i go for 2. We haven't been stopped for under 3 yards very many times this year. Thats not arrogance, i'm just saying. I like the chance of getting 3 yards over the chance of getting a stop on defense in overtime.
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Post by eaglemountie on Sept 18, 2008 11:26:48 GMT -6
At home- Kick, On the road- go for 2
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Post by dtackle74 on Sept 21, 2008 21:28:56 GMT -6
I'd kick it, but Shanny's got ballz. Yeah, his balls rode shotgun on the way home |
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Post by coachd5085 on Sept 21, 2008 22:05:13 GMT -6
go for 2, in the NFL the OT is determined by the toss of a coin. It is something like 80% chance of winning for the team that wins the coin toss. Actually, they mention quite often that numerous studies have shown that the winner of the coin toss is darn near exactly a 50% winner in OT. |
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