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Post by CS on Oct 25, 2020 9:52:52 GMT -6
I would agree with this and it would be interesting to find out the numbers associated with wins. For example the win % of a team who's average squat is 300 compared to 250 and 350. Do higher bench press #'s correlate to better tackling? Or is it squat, or cleans? I feel like in our world we have just excepted the fact that we should lift weights and get stronger but what lifts give us the most ROI?Could we settle the cleans or no cleans debate? I think the answer would be heavy, ground based compound lifts. I don’t think it would be possible or productive to try and drill down more than that, and I don’t think data would show significant differences between a team that front squats vs back squats vs cleans vs push press vs bench press etc. I do think data may show a gap between teams whose varsity has been lifting year round since 6th/7th grade vs 9th grade or later. I think programs whose athletes are part of a school wide integrated program (so they lift heavy using ground based compound movements year round if they are a multi sport athlete) will have more wins than programs who have a weight room open and whoever comes in comes in. Agreed. I do feel that given a large enough sample size you could find nuggets of info that would pay dividends |
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Post by CS on Oct 25, 2020 9:54:25 GMT -6
I would agree with this and it would be interesting to find out the numbers associated with wins. For example the win % of a team who's average squat is 300 compared to 250 and 350. Do higher bench press #'s correlate to better tackling? Or is it squat, or cleans? I feel like in our world we have just excepted the fact that we should lift weights and get stronger but what lifts give us the most ROI?Could we settle the cleans or no cleans debate? Unfortunately, I think there are too many other variables to isolate, specifically opponents relative ability. But I’m not talking about that. Of course you would be able to argue other variables but I’m talking specifically of teams winning percentage based solely on average weights lifted. |
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Post by coachd5085 on Oct 25, 2020 10:12:25 GMT -6
Unfortunately, I think there are too many other variables to isolate, specifically opponents relative ability. But I’m not talking about that. Of course you would be able to argue other variables but I’m talking specifically of teams winning percentage based solely on average weights lifted. I think you could that in totality- but not sure you could pick up any information on individual lifts being more important than another. |
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Post by 44dlcoach on Oct 25, 2020 13:42:49 GMT -6
In our area there has been a weight competition held once a year for the last 30 or so years. It's not strictly limited to football players but they make up the vast majority of participants.
The correlation over 30 years between teams dominating the lifting comp and teams dominating the FB league is very obvious.
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Post by airraidallday on Nov 17, 2020 6:48:32 GMT -6
Im wanting to look over any stats pertaining to win percentage im just trying to see which elements of the game have significant effect on the outcome, but im not sure entirely where to find these stats. I did a basic google search and found a couple things, but if you know where i can find others please let me know So I've been keeping pretty in depth statistics for my teams the last 3 years. We have not been very good over that time, but the data still shows some interesting trends. Yards per play usually does a good job of telling who won without looing at the score of the game when you compare the two teams. "Scoring Opportunity Creation" is a stat that shows whether we won the football game or not just by looking at it. Bill Connelly defines a scoring opportunity as "a 1st down inside the opponents 40" and obviously if you score from outside that range it is considered a scoring opportunity. In high school I've changed that to inside the 30 as our kickers are not normally as good as collegiate kickers. So, looking at the percent of drives in a game that created a scoring opportunity can you tell me which games we won during this season: Game 1: 8%, Game 2: 82%, Game 3: 22%, Game 4: 22%, Game 5: 27%, Game 6: 44%, Game 7: 56%, Game 8: 18%, Game 9: 10%, Game 10: 55%. Spoiler alert, any game over 50% we won. |
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Post by larrymoe on Nov 17, 2020 7:21:12 GMT -6
Im wanting to look over any stats pertaining to win percentage im just trying to see which elements of the game have significant effect on the outcome Which team scores more points than the other is a pretty big one. |
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Post by cwaltsmith on Nov 17, 2020 8:52:57 GMT -6
When the talent level is VERY similar (like in the NFL)... analytics averages out ... but at the high school level... talent is very rarely level therefore the dont work...IMHO
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Post by silkyice on Nov 17, 2020 12:13:24 GMT -6
Im wanting to look over any stats pertaining to win percentage im just trying to see which elements of the game have significant effect on the outcome, but im not sure entirely where to find these stats. I did a basic google search and found a couple things, but if you know where i can find others please let me know So I've been keeping pretty in depth statistics for my teams the last 3 years. We have not been very good over that time, but the data still shows some interesting trends. Yards per play usually does a good job of telling who won without looing at the score of the game when you compare the two teams. "Scoring Opportunity Creation" is a stat that shows whether we won the football game or not just by looking at it. Bill Connelly defines a scoring opportunity as "a 1st down inside the opponents 40" and obviously if you score from outside that range it is considered a scoring opportunity. In high school I've changed that to inside the 30 as our kickers are not normally as good as collegiate kickers. So, looking at the percent of drives in a game that created a scoring opportunity can you tell me which games we won during this season: Game 1: 8%, Game 2: 82%, Game 3: 22%, Game 4: 22%, Game 5: 27%, Game 6: 44%, Game 7: 56%, Game 8: 18%, Game 9: 10%, Game 10: 55%. Spoiler alert, any game over 50% we won. This is going to sound somewhat harsh, but I don't mean it to be. How does this info help you win games? Hey guys, let's get the ball inside their 30 with a first down. I mean, aren't you trying already trying to do that? How does this help you be successful? I just think this is just data or stats. Not necessarily analytics. |
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Post by coachwoodall on Nov 17, 2020 13:32:54 GMT -6
Im wanting to look over any stats pertaining to win percentage im just trying to see which elements of the game have significant effect on the outcome, but im not sure entirely where to find these stats. I did a basic google search and found a couple things, but if you know where i can find others please let me know I think the biggest hurdle you will find is being able to FIND the stats/data. You can look at box scores, get input from other coaches maybe; but there will be ton of things missing. Yes look at things like turnover margin, but also you have to consider the 'hidden yardage' that doesn't always show up in a box score. For example 5 years ago we won state, and had some good talent. But if you had all of our box scores and stat sheets, you'd probably not notice this. On average opposing teams started drives after KOs on the -20; our kicker was 76/79 on touchbacks. If you were stupid enough to kick to our return guy (and surprisingly many did just that) he averaged 44 yards a KO return. So on the average to start a drive after: Opponents -20 Us -40 and that not even counting punts and punt returns |
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Post by fantom on Nov 17, 2020 14:43:06 GMT -6
Im wanting to look over any stats pertaining to win percentage im just trying to see which elements of the game have significant effect on the outcome, but im not sure entirely where to find these stats. I did a basic google search and found a couple things, but if you know where i can find others please let me know I think the biggest hurdle you will find is being able to FIND the stats/data. You can look at box scores, get input from other coaches maybe; but there will be ton of things missing. Yes look at things like turnover margin, but also you have to consider the 'hidden yardage' that doesn't always show up in a box score. For example 5 years ago we won state, and had some good talent. But if you had all of our box scores and stat sheets, you'd probably not notice this. On average opposing teams started drives after KOs on the -20; our kicker was 76/79 on touchbacks. If you were stupid enough to kick to our return guy (and surprisingly many did just that) he averaged 44 yards a KO return. So on the average to start a drive after: Opponents -20 Us -40 and that not even counting punts and punt returns Years ago I heard a coach say the average roll after a punt hits the ground is 13 yards and I've preached that to our returners ever since. I have no idea if that number is right but the kids don't either. |
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Post by blb on Nov 17, 2020 14:58:51 GMT -6
Years ago I heard a coach say the average roll after a punt hits the ground is 13 yards and I've preached that to our returners ever since. I have no idea if that number is right but the kids don't either. It seemed every time our returners did not field a punt it rolled 15 yards. Every time opponents' returners did not field one of ours it bounced backwards or sideways. |
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Post by larrymoe on Nov 17, 2020 15:17:29 GMT -6
Years ago I heard a coach say the average roll after a punt hits the ground is 13 yards and I've preached that to our returners ever since. I have no idea if that number is right but the kids don't either. It seemed every time our returners did not field a punt it rolled 15 yards. Every time opponents' returners did not field one of ours it bounced backwards or sideways. Had an old school assistant who used to say 16 yds lost every time you don't catch a punt. Out of curiosity I kept track for us and teams we played for 3 years and I'll be damned if he wasn't right. |
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Post by larrymoe on Nov 17, 2020 15:20:26 GMT -6
In our area there has been a weight competition held once a year for the last 30 or so years. It's not strictly limited to football players but they make up the vast majority of participants. The correlation over 30 years between teams dominating the lifting comp and teams dominating the FB league is very obvious. Of the years we were good, we went to a local lifting competition and more than held our own despite being the smallest school there. Years we weren't competitive there, we usually didn't do so well on the field. |
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Post by larrymoe on Nov 17, 2020 16:42:18 GMT -6
In our area there has been a weight competition held once a year for the last 30 or so years. It's not strictly limited to football players but they make up the vast majority of participants. The correlation over 30 years between teams dominating the lifting comp and teams dominating the FB league is very obvious. Of the years we were good, we went to a local lifting competition and more than held our own despite being the smallest school there. Years we weren't competitive there, we usually didn't do so well on the field. An example- the years we went 10-1 and 11-1 and made the quarterfinals the second year, we only had 2 offensive starters that couldn't squat 300+ lbs. |
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Post by coachwoodall on Nov 17, 2020 18:23:33 GMT -6
Im wanting to look over any stats pertaining to win percentage im just trying to see which elements of the game have significant effect on the outcome, but im not sure entirely where to find these stats. I did a basic google search and found a couple things, but if you know where i can find others please let me know Another thing that most would agree is that a key to success is explosive plays; not often do HS offenses take 15 play drives to score. Get explosive plays, and don't give up explosive plays. Again that can relates to genetics, team disparity, poor tackling, knowing when to take shots, etc..... This year we played a team that wasn't good, but had a gutsy QB, an OL that got in the way, and 3 WRs that could go get the ball. Leading up to our game with them later in the season, they had scored the most points (in losses) against the top teams in our region/conference that they had given up in any game all year. They had a bunch of explosive plays against good defenses. They were beating us at halftime 27-10. We went to half time and simply told the kids "Stop giving up the Post/Wheel". We won 38-27. Now they weren't very good on defense and our offense decided to finally quit ending drives by simply turning the ball over, but the key for us in the second half was DON'T GIVE UP THE BIG PLAY. In fact in the 4th quarter when things were just turning our way, they mounted a 17 play drive that ended on a 3rd and 6 from our 16 with an INT in the end zone. |
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Post by 44dlcoach on Nov 17, 2020 19:29:24 GMT -6
In our area there has been a weight competition held once a year for the last 30 or so years. It's not strictly limited to football players but they make up the vast majority of participants. The correlation over 30 years between teams dominating the lifting comp and teams dominating the FB league is very obvious. Of the years we were good, we went to a local lifting competition and more than held our own despite being the smallest school there. Years we weren't competitive there, we usually didn't do so well on the field. Ours was held the Friday and Saturday of Memorial Day weekend, so Senior class participation could be hit and miss. But the frosh through junior classes were pretty reliable about showing up. Teams winning the JV competition and having a bunch of strong juniors was always an accurate predictor of a good team the following fall. |
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Post by fantom on Nov 17, 2020 20:38:38 GMT -6
Im wanting to look over any stats pertaining to win percentage im just trying to see which elements of the game have significant effect on the outcome, but im not sure entirely where to find these stats. I did a basic google search and found a couple things, but if you know where i can find others please let me know I think the biggest hurdle you will find is being able to FIND the stats/data. You can look at box scores, get input from other coaches maybe; but there will be ton of things missing. Yes look at things like turnover margin, but also you have to consider the 'hidden yardage' that doesn't always show up in a box score. For example 5 years ago we won state, and had some good talent. But if you had all of our box scores and stat sheets, you'd probably not notice this. On average opposing teams started drives after KOs on the -20; our kicker was 76/79 on touchbacks. If you were stupid enough to kick to our return guy (and surprisingly many did just that) he averaged 44 yards a KO return. So on the average to start a drive after: Opponents -20 Us -40 and that not even counting punts and punt returns I wanted to leave a longer answer but I had a meeting. I heard James Franklin speak t a clinic about Meaningful Stats, exactly what this thread about. The stat that I found most interesting was Average Starting Field Position. He likes it because it involves all three phases of the game but I also like it because it is something that a coach can control. That hidden yardage makes big difference in HS football. NFL teams may be able to execute well enough to make 90 yard drives. For HS teams, I think, every yard that they have to gain is another chance for a 16 year old to jump offsides or miss block or run the wrong route. That's why I'm not a fan of the onside kick every time/ no punting school of thought. In HS field position counts. |
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Post by coachscdub on Nov 17, 2020 22:40:54 GMT -6
I think the biggest hurdle you will find is being able to FIND the stats/data. You can look at box scores, get input from other coaches maybe; but there will be ton of things missing. Yes look at things like turnover margin, but also you have to consider the 'hidden yardage' that doesn't always show up in a box score. For example 5 years ago we won state, and had some good talent. But if you had all of our box scores and stat sheets, you'd probably not notice this. On average opposing teams started drives after KOs on the -20; our kicker was 76/79 on touchbacks. If you were stupid enough to kick to our return guy (and surprisingly many did just that) he averaged 44 yards a KO return. So on the average to start a drive after: Opponents -20 Us -40 and that not even counting punts and punt returns I wanted to leave a longer answer but I had a meeting. I heard James Franklin speak t a clinic about Meaningful Stats, exactly what this thread about. The stat that I found most interesting was Average Starting Field Position. He likes it because it involves all three phases of the game but I also like it because it is something that a coach can control. That hidden yardage makes big difference in HS football. NFL teams may be able to execute well enough to make 90 yard drives. For HS teams, I think, every yard that they have to gain is another chance for a 16 year old to jump offsides or miss block or run the wrong route. That's why I'm not a fan of the onside kick every time/ no punting school of thought. In HS field position counts. That is interesting and definitely worth considering, i think the opposite side also has a good position as well though. Just in my own way of thinking i think it would be tough to try and kick deep with any sort of guaranteed field position, that is unless i had a kicker who could get constant touchbacks. JMO but i think there are other benefits to onside kicking just than the hope of getting one here or there. |
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Post by cwaltsmith on Nov 18, 2020 7:51:16 GMT -6
I wanted to leave a longer answer but I had a meeting. I heard James Franklin speak t a clinic about Meaningful Stats, exactly what this thread about. The stat that I found most interesting was Average Starting Field Position. He likes it because it involves all three phases of the game but I also like it because it is something that a coach can control. That hidden yardage makes big difference in HS football. NFL teams may be able to execute well enough to make 90 yard drives. For HS teams, I think, every yard that they have to gain is another chance for a 16 year old to jump offsides or miss block or run the wrong route. That's why I'm not a fan of the onside kick every time/ no punting school of thought. In HS field position counts. That is interesting and definitely worth considering, i think the opposite side also has a good position as well though. Just in my own way of thinking i think it would be tough to try and kick deep with any sort of guaranteed field position, that is unless i had a kicker who could get constant touchbacks. JMO but i think there are other benefits to onside kicking just than the hope of getting one here or there. Yes ... I believe its all about your kicker and coverage team. 1 year after 6 games... avg starting field position after kickoff for our opponents was the 41 yd line... we didnt have a kicker and were having to rest some key guys bc of depth. I decided that if we onsided everytime... we only gave up 9 to 11 yds... and we had a chance to get the ball... we onsided every kick off the rest of the year unless we were up big. |
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Post by coachwoodall on Nov 18, 2020 10:16:50 GMT -6
That is interesting and definitely worth considering, i think the opposite side also has a good position as well though. Just in my own way of thinking i think it would be tough to try and kick deep with any sort of guaranteed field position, that is unless i had a kicker who could get constant touchbacks. JMO but i think there are other benefits to onside kicking just than the hope of getting one here or there. Yes ... I believe its all about your kicker and coverage team. 1 year after 6 games... avg starting field position after kickoff for our opponents was the 41 yd line... we didnt have a kicker and were having to rest some key guys bc of depth. I decided that if we onsided everytime... we only gave up 9 to 11 yds... and we had a chance to get the ball... we onsided every kick off the rest of the year unless we were up big. When I worked at a single A/small school (200 kids) we generally were fairly talented, but with the usual 1 or 2 kids you had to try and hide. One season we had an OT who could straight on toe kick the KO through the uprights. BUT he also played DE as well, so by the middle of the second quarter those 70 FG KOs turned in KOs inside the 10 & by the second half maybe inside the 20 with the random shanker. We ended up most of the time getting a kid that could kick a really good high pooch to about the 30-35 and trot out the defense and play from there. |
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Post by larrymoe on Nov 18, 2020 12:05:27 GMT -6
We ended up most of the time getting a kid that could kick a really good high pooch to about the 30-35 and trot out the defense and play from there. We played against a team that always did that. It worked well enough for them that I put it in for us. And then, we got a kid that could kick the crap out of it.😀 |
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Post by airraidallday on Nov 19, 2020 6:40:31 GMT -6
So I've been keeping pretty in depth statistics for my teams the last 3 years. We have not been very good over that time, but the data still shows some interesting trends. Yards per play usually does a good job of telling who won without looing at the score of the game when you compare the two teams. "Scoring Opportunity Creation" is a stat that shows whether we won the football game or not just by looking at it. Bill Connelly defines a scoring opportunity as "a 1st down inside the opponents 40" and obviously if you score from outside that range it is considered a scoring opportunity. In high school I've changed that to inside the 30 as our kickers are not normally as good as collegiate kickers. So, looking at the percent of drives in a game that created a scoring opportunity can you tell me which games we won during this season: Game 1: 8%, Game 2: 82%, Game 3: 22%, Game 4: 22%, Game 5: 27%, Game 6: 44%, Game 7: 56%, Game 8: 18%, Game 9: 10%, Game 10: 55%. Spoiler alert, any game over 50% we won. This is going to sound somewhat harsh, but I don't mean it to be. How does this info help you win games? Hey guys, let's get the ball inside their 30 with a first down. I mean, aren't you trying already trying to do that? How does this help you be successful? I just think this is just data or stats. Not necessarily analytics. This is something that I look at during post season breakdown and use it to inform decisions moving into the next season. This also helps me select which games should be the focus of finding our deficiencies in scheme as anything sub 30% is probably a team with kids that would out talent us 9/10 times and anything over the 75% are teams that we would out talent 9/10 times. I also use this when looking at all of the playcall data from the year to see if there are places where I created inefficiencies by relying on certain formations or calls in certain parts of the field. Has very little impact in season, but post season helps guide my iteration process in addition to other data. The same argument can also be made for things like 3rd down conversion rate, TO margin, or really any other metric that you look at. Aren't those things we are trying to do anyways? Convert more third downs, turn the ball over less than they do, complete more passes, average more yards per carry etc.? All stats do, really, is quantify things we as coaches really already know. |
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Post by coachwoodall on Nov 19, 2020 8:19:26 GMT -6
Here's a thought, since our game is less '1 on 1' dependent, what positional data/stats can help point to success within that position group. Then you can extrapolate those into defensive, offensive, and special teams success.
For years on defense instead of just grading +/- = %, we had a system of production points. I tinkered with trying to analyze that data in term of how relative the production was for each player and position group. There always is subjectivity when grading/assessing, but I was able to get a pretty good number that was basically the equivalent of baseball's OPS
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Post by silkyice on Nov 19, 2020 8:48:50 GMT -6
This is going to sound somewhat harsh, but I don't mean it to be. How does this info help you win games? Hey guys, let's get the ball inside their 30 with a first down. I mean, aren't you trying already trying to do that? How does this help you be successful? I just think this is just data or stats. Not necessarily analytics. This is something that I look at during post season breakdown and use it to inform decisions moving into the next season. This also helps me select which games should be the focus of finding our deficiencies in scheme as anything sub 30% is probably a team with kids that would out talent us 9/10 times and anything over the 75% are teams that we would out talent 9/10 times. I also use this when looking at all of the playcall data from the year to see if there are places where I created inefficiencies by relying on certain formations or calls in certain parts of the field. Has very little impact in season, but post season helps guide my iteration process in addition to other data. Good stuff Coach! 100% AGREED!! That was exactly my point. |
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