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Post by cqmiller on Mar 14, 2024 14:25:11 GMT -6
Clinic is over... almost got 100% of it filmed. Just missed one session. Had a camera operator leave and we didn't know until it was too late for the 1 session we missed. Digital Clinic can be purchased at: www.utahfbca.com/clinic2024Thanks to jml casec11 bartimus58 and everyone who helped/spoke at it. Had a lot of fun! Nobody got towed like 2022 with Coach Huey and the crew were here, but we do have a hell of a story from Black Sheep where we went Saturday night! I'll start planning 2025 clinic and hopefully we can get some guys from the site here as speakers again or a bunch of guys to come and hang out.
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Post by cqmiller on Mar 6, 2024 9:07:32 GMT -6
The 2024 Utah Football Coaches Association Clinic is going down this Friday & Saturday (March 8-9). It will take me about a week to get all the film catalogued, uploaded, and the site built, but you can register thru our website and purchase the online clinic once that goes live. www.utahfbca.com/clinic2024The 2023 UFCA Clinic is available still thru our website at: www.utahfbca.com/clinic2023Only downside of the online clinic is you miss the adventure of the rubber-ducky-death-star drinks and the vehicles being towed and the adventure that goes with being here in-person! Just ask kylem56 and Coach Huey
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Post by cqmiller on Mar 4, 2024 18:18:13 GMT -6
FINALIZED THE LINEUP FOR THIS WEEK'S CLINIC!!! Speaker Lineup Friday March 8thSpeker Lineup Saturday March 9thVendor & Sponsor InfoHad a few changes from the preliminary and decided to just taper-down at the end since things thin-out anyway. Digital version of the clinic will be available within a week of the clinic ending. Just need to get all the video processed and uploaded into the system. You can purchase that thru the website: www.utahfbca.com and go to the "annual clinic" section. 2023 online clinic still available as well.
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OT Choice
Feb 18, 2024 9:15:38 GMT -6
via mobile
Post by cqmiller on Feb 18, 2024 9:15:38 GMT -6
To me it was the timeout to get my field goal team situated to give us a chance to make it if we needed to go on offense.
If we don't get the 3rd down play, I need to run 2 plays and complete at least 1 for about 10 yards to give us a shot at a FG, but wanting to be able to call TO and setup for that FG was worth the 40 seconds to me.
Once the free kick was gonna happen (after the 3rd down) now I used it to calm the situation that was happening with the kicker and their players and coaches losing their minds, etc...
Could have bit me in the ass, but I have looked at how Belichick has handled some of those time-sensitive situations and how he has said, "why call the TO and give the opponent a chance to think it over? Let them sweat the time ticking away"
It worked, could have not worked, but we had one the season before where we let other team score with about a minute left on purpose so we could at least try to score again and win the game... we complete a long one down to the 2 hardliners and I don't call one there and we let it run all the way down to about 12 seconds. We score with less than 10 instead of calling a TO with 50 sec left and giving their offense a chance to do anything.
I think TOs are more important than the average coach does.
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Post by cqmiller on Feb 17, 2024 9:30:16 GMT -6
One of the analytics guys on the internet said that they had simulated the OT rules last year when the new rule was first announced. Simulated 130,000 times the team going second won 50.14% of the time. I thought one was for normal OT rules and this one I was referencing says team going 2nd wins 50.14%
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Post by cqmiller on Feb 17, 2024 9:28:23 GMT -6
I always have. Every week for the past 25 years I have practiced the "fair catch free kick" once a week just in case the 0.01% chance I would ever need it, we had repped it and the kids could execute. 2022 we won a game by kicking the ball thru the uprights off a tee with our KO team on the field and the opponent couldn't do anything but watch it go in and win the game by 1. My decision to kick deep when we scored with a minute left and all 3 timeouts after we missed a 2-pt conversion to tie was questioned (loudly) by pretty much every parent in our stands behind me, and even some of my coaches on my own staff. Then NOT using a timeout after 2nd down and letting the clock run down to 20 seconds was HIGHLY & LOUDLY questioned by EVERYONE in the stadium. Their players were celebrating and talking $h!t to our kids and pointing to the clock as it ticked down. Then we used TO#2 after 3rd down. I walked out to talk to the officials and told them we are gonna send 3 guys back and fair catch the ball on the punt. Then I would be choosing to use my free-kick. Once our KO team went out on the field, the stadium was going CRAZY. Their kids were trying to lineup on "defense" while my kicker was setting up the tee and they were talking a lot to him, so I used my final timeout to go out and talk to the kicker and make sure he knew he was the hero or I was the idiot for trying all this craziness. If he had missed, I would have taken a lot of heat... but it wouldn't change the fact that I chose a sequence of decisions that I felt gave my team the best odds of winning. No guarantees, which is what everyone wants. If you tell me before he kicks it that it is 100% he makes it, that takes all the risk out of the decision. I am going to need a little more info on this exact situation. How much time was left on the clock when you decided to kick deep? Can't quite understand why you let the run down to 20 seconds while you had an extra timeout. Was the advantage that you were saving the timeout so you could talk to your kicker or to let more time run off so that the kick was the last play of the game? Where did they punt from? I have always envisioned this working when the team was punting from inside their 5. From the 10, a 40 yard punt, you fair catch, you now need a 60 yard fg to win. But if punting from inside their 5 with the punter in the endzone changes things. Not only is the risk of block greater, a hurried punt and they might just get a 30 yard punt. Ball on the 35. 45 yard FG to win. Also, a rugby punt team could really screw this up. A minute and a half left on the clock when we score and miss the 2pt conversion. Punter kicked the ball on average between 30 and 35 yards from the line of scrimmage in all our scouting and was punting exactly that during the course of the game. They are a shield punt team that has not once rugby kicked on any film we've seen or anytime during the game. Our FG/PAT team was not great. We had had one or two blocked throughout the year and running them out on the field in a clock-ticking situation to try and kick a game-winner as time expires was something I didn't want to risk. I wanted a TO so I could walk out there and line them up myself prior to the kick to give us the best chances if we were having to kick a field goal to try and win. When we kicked deep, they got the ball on about the 12 yard line because by the time they scrambled back and recovered it, we were able to pin them back pretty deep. On 1st down, they ran up the middle and we stopped them at about the 10.5 or 11. We called TO. About 1:25 left. 2nd Down, they ran zone-read and we forced the pull and the QB went laterally toward the sideline and gave up another yard or two and we tackled him in-bounds (barely) with about 1:25 left. Now they are 3rd and 12 from the -9. I'm thinking he kicks it to about the 45 and I'm not sure if I want to do the FCFC yet. That is a 55 yarder, which I still would rather take my chance with my kicker kicking a 55 yarder off a tee than trying to gain another 5-10 yards and kicking a 45 yarder when they can rush the kick and block it. On a field goal, we still need to snap, catch, hold, and kick without the defense blocking it. On a free-kick, the kick is the only variable. I hold onto the TO just in case the punt is a boomer and I have to try and get back to a makeable field goal. After I don't call the TO and the clock runs down to 0:25 and because I don't call a TO and they are surprised I didn't, they (I think) decide the game is over and have their QB get the ball and roll to the side and try to burn as much time as possible. My ILB sees the QB heading to the middle of the field and scrapes out and sacks him on the 5 yard line with 15-16 seconds left. I call timeout and ask the official on our sideline, "you ever seen fair-catch-free-kick?", and he answers "no". I tell him I want to talk to the white-hat and let him know what we are doing. We send 3 guys back (just in case they try to do anything weird with it) they are supposed to call fair catch as soon as it is kicked and they have been told they have to dive, jump, tip, or DO WHATEVER IT TAKES to catch the ball before it hits the ground. I have told all the officials that we are fair-catching the kick no matter what and that we are gonna win on a FCFC, to which the white-hat says, "get outta here". We lineup with our 8 guys in the box and our 3 deep with our 2 guys coming off the edge and 4 guys up the middle to force the kick to happen on-time so they can't just run around and eat the clock. Only a 2-pt lead, so taking safety isn't an option for them unless they want to go to OT so they have to kick it. Punter kicks it down the middle and we catch it on the 37 yard line, so he kicked it 32 yards and we are setup with a 47 yard kick off a tee with no rush for the win. 12 seconds on the clock. We kick it, it goes in, and we win on a play that nobody had seen in the state in a long time.
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Post by cqmiller on Feb 17, 2024 9:03:26 GMT -6
That is why I need the percentages or I can't say STATISTICALLY which one is technically an advantage. If the 50.14% is accurate in the simulations mentioned above, then you gain 0.14% advantage in the entirety of your life. If it happens a million times in your life, you win 501400 and lose 498600. So 2800 wins more out of a million. Technically that means you should take the ball 2nd.
I'm not saying you should kick or receive because it seems to be about as 50/50 as it gets. I would assume that 0.14% is probably the odds that the defense scores a TD or gets a Safety when the 1st team gets the ball. All other scenarios are probably split pretty much down the middle.
Not gonna hammer a guy for kicking or receiving with that decision. Just like I won't crucify Lions HC for going for it on 4th and short. Statistically if you convert you give yourself a HUGE chance of winning, but percentages are percentages for a reason... there is risk you don't get it.
I love the analyzing of the options and that is why I think the 50.14 number thrown out by the computer simulation assumes both teams are equally matched. The true percentages move based on talent, injuries, etc... Fun little though-experiment that I'm sure all 32 NFL teams are going through the process of figuring out what they will do in the future.
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Post by cqmiller on Feb 17, 2024 8:50:12 GMT -6
I know brophyDoesn't seem like I have been on for 18 years, but I checked literally on February 13th and I registered on February 13th 2006. Been a minute. Love this site and I still push it every time I'm at a clinic or talking about where I got the idea for a lot of the stuff I use.
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Post by cqmiller on Feb 15, 2024 10:58:57 GMT -6
Reason #1 for loss = Not clearing the area of a punt and hitting the foot of a blocker Reason #2 for loss = Instead of PR jumping on the "first-touching", he tried to scoop it and run. Reason #3 for loss = MISSED EXTRA POINT
If any of those 3 plays don't happen, SF wins. If you let a team hang-around, they may find a way to beat you. Game could have been handled by one of those 3 things above not happening. Details in the little things.
Sometime this offseason I'm gonna pull some of the stats and look at whether I think in playoffs I would kickoff in NFL. First glance, I'm saying 'yes' because I think the certainty of knowing what I need will make anything close to 50/50 in the math will be the tiebreaker.
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Post by cqmiller on Feb 15, 2024 10:20:16 GMT -6
This is why I don't look at all the % win probability stuff ESPN throws out there... The statistics are just telling you what the long-term average is for all teams.
If you have Joe Montana, I don't care what the "average NFL team" scoring % is from the -25... he is probably higher than that, so unless you could honestly know how your players vs. their players vs. who is injured, etc affects the math, you still won't know what the right decision is in the heat of the moment. This is why I have never nor will ever say Dan Campbell screwed up in the NFC championship game. He wanted to WIN the game by converting one of those 2 4th downs. I think if they convert just 1 of them, they win and are in the super bowl. The outcome is what everyone is hammering him for. If he kicks it and they miss, the SAME people would be calling him an idiot for not going for it. Try to take the result away and just look at the options.
This is the kind of stuff I love getting into. I love all the rules and statistical stuff that comes in sports. I always have. Every week for the past 25 years I have practiced the "fair catch free kick" once a week just in case the 0.01% chance I would ever need it, we had repped it and the kids could execute. 2022 we won a game by kicking the ball thru the uprights off a tee with our KO team on the field and the opponent couldn't do anything but watch it go in and win the game by 1.
My decision to kick deep when we scored with a minute left and all 3 timeouts after we missed a 2-pt conversion to tie was questioned (loudly) by pretty much every parent in our stands behind me, and even some of my coaches on my own staff. Then NOT using a timeout after 2nd down and letting the clock run down to 20 seconds was HIGHLY & LOUDLY questioned by EVERYONE in the stadium. Their players were celebrating and talking $h!t to our kids and pointing to the clock as it ticked down. Then we used TO#2 after 3rd down. I walked out to talk to the officials and told them we are gonna send 3 guys back and fair catch the ball on the punt. Then I would be choosing to use my free-kick. Once our KO team went out on the field, the stadium was going CRAZY. Their kids were trying to lineup on "defense" while my kicker was setting up the tee and they were talking a lot to him, so I used my final timeout to go out and talk to the kicker and make sure he knew he was the hero or I was the idiot for trying all this craziness.
If he had missed, I would have taken a lot of heat... but it wouldn't change the fact that I chose a sequence of decisions that I felt gave my team the best odds of winning. No guarantees, which is what everyone wants. If you tell me before he kicks it that it is 100% he makes it, that takes all the risk out of the decision.
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Post by cqmiller on Feb 14, 2024 15:11:05 GMT -6
Not enough data to know how it shakes out... I would need to know score-rates from different locations on the field.
In HS, both teams get the ball at the 10 yard line, so the scoring % is VERY high for both. If you kick a field-goal, you have to weigh your probability of making the field-goal vs. the probability the other team scores a TD on 1st and Goal. This is why I think defense 1st gives you an advantage. You KNOW whether a FG wins it or not, which makes decisions easier to manage.
In college, both teams get the ball at the 25 yard line, so the scoring % is still very high, but the TD% is lower. Now your FG probability has to be weighed by their FG probability and their TD probability. Again, being on defense makes it easy to decide whether to kick FG or go on 4th down if you stop the other team 1st.
With the NFL rule, I look at it as pretty much the college rule, but with much LOWER probability of scoring a TD. 99% of all kicks are touchbacks, so you really have to go 30 yards on offense to have a realistic shot at kicking a FG, and a full 75 to score a TD. Really, they should just turn off the clock in the playoff OT system because the clock is not a factor at all. Both teams will get 1 possession in the 15 minutes, so it is irrelevant. Does anyone know the % of drives starting at the 25 that result in successful FGs and successful TDs? If I had that data, we could figure out which one is the higher advantage. It does make me think I'd MAYBE lean toward kicking first because now even if you give up a TD, you can still go down the field and score and decide to go for 2.
Don't think there is enough data with it only being a year old and their first reaction is what they have studied with the older OT rules. My guess is that it probably bumps the win % back to advantage to be on Defense first, but it isn't going to be as high as the college or high school % because of the distance needed to score.
If anyone has those basic stats, we can do some of the probabilities and figure it out within a decent accuracy. My guess it would maybe shift from Team receiving over 50 by I think it was 3% last I saw, to defense by 1%.
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Post by cqmiller on Feb 14, 2024 14:44:04 GMT -6
In HS and college... always go defense first. Knowing how many points you need is an advantage. You know you are in 4-down scenarios and things like that.
NFL rate is higher than 50% probability for whoever has ball 1st winning. It is high enough that people think the OT rules should change because it gives unfair advantage to the team that has the ball 1st.
NFL I take the ball with all the possible outcomes... College & HS I still play Defense 1st.
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Post by cqmiller on Feb 13, 2024 9:17:35 GMT -6
Had a great opportunity to speak on the Mind of a Football Coach Podcast last night. Dropped the site in the first 5 minutes! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/coaches-roundtable/id1253750485?i=1000645179496Thanks to all of you who have made this site so awesome and all the friends I've made over the years finally meeting some of you in-person after being what my wife calls, "internet boyfriends". Too many of you to try to hit you all, so I won't try to tag people. Love this site and it's been a lot of fun in the last 18 years I've been on the site (I just looked and I registered TODAY, Feb-13 way back in 2006).
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Post by cqmiller on Feb 12, 2024 23:11:16 GMT -6
NFL is a different animal... the higher you go, the closer it is to a peer-peer relationship in my opinion.
I think it is one of the reasons why a guy like Saban was better fit for the College model. More of a subordinate-type relationship with the players.
I don't think it is a big deal. Reid didn't seem to mind and probably likes the fact that his superstar TE actually gave a $h!t about winning the game. The personal relationship between the 2 is what determines that.
My wife and kids get away with a lot of $h!t I wouldn't take from anyone else.
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Post by cqmiller on Feb 11, 2024 13:57:08 GMT -6
Right Power Rt is hard enough for my son's team to handle...
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Post by cqmiller on Feb 5, 2024 23:45:52 GMT -6
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Post by cqmiller on Feb 5, 2024 14:56:01 GMT -6
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Post by cqmiller on Feb 3, 2024 15:34:59 GMT -6
I like to have enough that I would be willing to bet some $ that I'd be right... you get a feel for what they are wanting to do and have to decide, but if they are 5 times running a play and then 5 random things they do once. I may use that 5/10 and assume the 5 random singles were to just show off the data.
Not the greatest answer, but you really need to make sure you are comfortable enough that you will take the blame if it doesn't work out.
I'll find my clinic presentation on data I did a while back and see if I can post it
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Post by cqmiller on Feb 2, 2024 12:29:31 GMT -6
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Post by cqmiller on Feb 2, 2024 10:40:23 GMT -6
I have specific column sets for everything... O, D, DT, Scouting Opp O, Scouting Opp D, Scouting Opp ST, Game Info, Practice We are up to 95 columns of data we use and with 6 competent coaches, you can get all of them done for your game in 30-45 min and a little more on the scout film because you are doing 2 games. We can go over any details you want if you PM me and we can setup a Zoom to go over it. Defensive Responsibilities from 20236 Coaches Total - 2 DL, 2 LB, 2 DB (I was DC and was 2nd DB Coach) Staff did not meet with players on weekends - Coaches could do jobs at school or from home Photo of Weekend 2023 D ResponsibilitiesOffensive Responsibilities for 2024Not finalized - Staff meeting in a few weeks for me to teach the guys the system & how to do it 11 Coaches Total - 3 OL, 1 TE, 2 WR, 2 RB, 2 QB, (I'm the OC and not in those 10) You can see names of coaches are missing but the general outline is the same. Photo of Weekend 2024 O Responsibilities
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Post by cqmiller on Feb 2, 2024 10:09:31 GMT -6
Offensively and Defensively, who is reponsible for what when it comes to opponent scout film? I am trying to streamline our process in hudl (we use assist too). Do you have DB coach chart passing/completion chart, O-line coach insert pressures into hudl, etc....? Hit me up coach... I've spoken on this topic at clinics. I can convert my document to a picture and upload it here in just a second.
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Post by cqmiller on Jan 30, 2024 14:30:44 GMT -6
I run an annual clinic and unfortunately we will get WAY MORE coaches roll into the clinic to see a guy who went 12-1 who had 5 or 6 division 1 athletes than will come see a guy who went 4-6 with absolutely no talent and literally had to coach his @ss off to get to 4 wins with the lack of talent they have. There are guys going 1-9 or 2-8 that should be coach of the year over some guys who go 9-1 or 10-0 every year. Don't know how to fix it on a large-scale, but I like meeting with guys who I know have coached up a team and almost upset a team they had no business playing against over guys who could have rolled the ball out and took a nap and their team would have won by 5 TDs anyway.
It's really all about the film... if you are watching a team you play try to run power against an inferior team and the inferior team squeezes it, spills it, and has a defender there to make the tackle, but the RB for the really good team is just a lot better than the unblocked defender and breaks that tackle and runs for 20, that is a well-coached team on defense, but the kid on offense is just better than the kids trying to tackle him.
There's so much more than W/L, points per game, points allowed per game, and things like that. Amazing how when NFL coaches have top-5 players at most key positions they are "geniuses", but if they have the bottom-5 plyers at a lot of spots, they are "dumb" and fired and looking for work.
Lions HC getting a lot of crap for going on 4th down this week... they didn't convert, so everyone gonna look at outcome and determine he's an idiot. If they convert either of the 2, they probably hold on and win. The result isn't always giving you accurate info that it was done right. I could close my eyes and it a 3... doesn't mean I should shoot with my eyes closed.
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Post by cqmiller on Jan 28, 2024 16:31:51 GMT -6
I've had years where we've had 0 or 1 and then years where we had a bunch.
Just from our 2015 State Championship team we have 7 currently on NFL rosters or practice squads. 5 more who are finishing up at Utah, Minnesota, BYU, Weber State, Utah Tech because of missions and the extra year of eligibility from Covid. We were loaded.
Average is 1-2 every couple years, but definitely had some 0s and some with very high numbers.
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Post by cqmiller on Jan 27, 2024 14:06:40 GMT -6
The worst teams in our state every year are 10 personnel spread teams that go 0-10... very rarely do teams running those run systems perform that poor
Parents are stupid
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Post by cqmiller on Jan 27, 2024 11:13:28 GMT -6
There was a company based in Montana called "Universal Athletic" that had spots in MT, ID, UT, WY. Now they are Game One in Utah. I've always tried to split business a little bit with BSN so that everyone can compete. Competition keeps prices somewhat reasonable.
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Post by cqmiller on Jan 11, 2024 8:27:22 GMT -6
Will there be an option to get the videos? Yes... You can still purchase last year's clinic on the website: www.utahfbca.com/We will film everything we possibly can and add the same option this year as a "digital clinic"
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Post by cqmiller on Jan 9, 2024 23:18:37 GMT -6
We are looking to fill a hole in our schedule. Last game before conference here. Probably will be early for the rest of you. They were a 5-5 team last year and I just got hired as the OC.
If anyone our there is looking for out-of-state opponent, let me know
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Post by cqmiller on Jan 9, 2024 22:15:47 GMT -6
That time of the year again! We are planning our clinic for March 8-9 this year. I know some of you have come out and spoke before, some have flown out and attended. If you are interested either way, let me know and we'll see what we can do. It is ALWAYS a good time! Couple years back we had our truck towed while we were at the watering-hole with all our stuff in it... it was quite an adventure, as Coach Huey can attest to. Look forward to seeing some of you again!
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Post by cqmiller on Jan 6, 2024 15:16:37 GMT -6
I don't know the deal, but there are a few kids on my son's accelerated baseball team that didn't get invited back because their parents were a PITA. Kid isn't so good I'm willing to put up with that BS.
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Post by cqmiller on Jan 5, 2024 8:23:26 GMT -6
It's getting wild... we are at 25% of ALL HC jobs open since the season ended and it is only climbing out here. Support is decreasing, parents are unruly, and it doesn't seem to be moving the right direction.
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