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Post by joris85 on Nov 13, 2015 8:53:42 GMT -6
I think this stat just says more about how well your offense preforms than the number you see on the scoreboard.
Nothing more, nothing less.
This number could possibly tell you that an offense like Navy did a better job than Oregon in a particular game, despite scoring only half as many points (because they only needed half the possesions).
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Post by coolhandluke on Nov 13, 2015 9:01:42 GMT -6
I think this stat just says more about how well your offense preforms than the number you see on the scoreboard. Nothing more, nothing less. This number could possibly tell you that an offense like Navy did a better job than Oregon in a particular game, despite scoring only half as many points (because they only needed half the possesions). Exactly what I was going to say. In the NBA, people look at points/game and assume the Warriors are not a great defensive team. The truth is, they were one of the top defensive teams in the league last year, but they play at a higher pace with more possessions. Our defense looks good this year when we compare it to other teams in our district, but a lot of that is because our offense runs the veer and grinds things out. So in points per game, we look better than we actually are because the other teams in our district run spread offenses and their defenses have to defend more possessions. But if we were to break it down into points/possession we would get a more realistic view of our defense.
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Post by spreadattack on Nov 13, 2015 9:46:13 GMT -6
None of these stats will tell you how to set up your drill or what defense to run, but they can help you with organizing your practice by telling you what to emphasize and spend time on. In a perfect world you just try to get good at everything, though as we all know practice and meeting time is limited so you're always shuffling the emphasis. I think that's where it's most helpful -- focusing on what really matters.
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Post by coachwilliams2 on Nov 13, 2015 9:58:37 GMT -6
None of these stats will tell you how to set up your drill or what defense to run, but they can help you with organizing your practice by telling you what to emphasize and spend time on. In a perfect world you just try to get good at everything, though as we all know practice and meeting time is limited so you're always shuffling the emphasis. I think that's where it's most helpful -- focusing on what really matters. Exactly. If Redzone and 3rd down efficiency is what I believe helps my team be more successful, my practice plan should reflect that with more situational periods involving 3rd downs and redzone plays.
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pistola
Sophomore Member
Posts: 193
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Post by pistola on Nov 13, 2015 10:08:18 GMT -6
We did a breakdown last year- Our offense scored at 94% if we had a drive with no penalties or turnovers...94%! im gonna guess that number REALLY plummets on drives with turnovers........ hehe
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Post by coachd5085 on Nov 13, 2015 10:14:20 GMT -6
coachwilliams2 That makes sense in theory, but I have to ask how different are your redzone plays than other plays. How different are most HS offenses when it comes to redzone than the rest of their offense. I can see working more 3rd downs than first downs, and emphasizing those plays a bit more. I guess I am asking "how big a playsheet do you need to have such that you can have distinct "redzone and 3rd down" choices
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Post by coachd5085 on Nov 13, 2015 10:20:30 GMT -6
I have done a five year study on our team's defense and correlating win percentage by specified parameters on the following categories: Pts/Poss, Yds/Play, Pass Yds/Play, Rush Yds/Play, Red Zone no TD%, Turnovers,3rd Down %, and Explosive Plays. The most indicative stat to winning for our us has been points/possession. When we allow less than 2 pts/possession we have won 92% our our games and when we have surrendered more than 2pts/possession we have won just 14% of those games. This sort of dovetails with what blb just said, when everyone basically had about 10 possessions per game. But now, your possessions/game will vary according to the pace at which you/your opponent play. This year our offense played slow and grinded things out (one game we only had to defend 7 possessions!) and we defended 108 possessions through ten games. Ok, but I bet you have won 100% of the games when you have scored more points than your opponents correct? That is the statistic you know for sure before a game starts. You know that if you score more points than your opponents you will win the game (not accounting for forfeits after the fact) How does trying to allow less than 2 pts per possession differ from trying to score more points than your opponent. In fact, how does trying to allow less than 2pts per possession differ from just trying to execute your defense the best you possibly can each and every play? How does a team work towards allowing only 2pts per possession.
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Post by fantom on Nov 13, 2015 10:29:58 GMT -6
Notice it didn't say 'get turnovers'. It says 'create' turnovers. Strip sacks, forced fumbles, INTs. Things we work and drill. But I agree, some is luck. We measure points per possession, yards per rush, per pass attempt, 3rd downs etc. but those are our 3 ''rallying cries' But to spreadattack 's point, those teams that lead the league,conference,nation etc in turnovers one year, and run middle of the pack the next work and drill those things. It may vary a bit more at HS and younger levels, but I have never worked on a high school or college staff, nor have I visited a college or pro practice that didn't have a "turnover" circuit emphasizing "creating turnovers" or didn't constantly preach "ball security". Yet one year a team is one of the top teams regarding turnovers, and the next year they are average. My question is always (since stats, goals, metrics etc. comes up a lot here) how does what you measure change what you do daily? I see so much analysis here, but nobody has every really provided a convincing argument as to how all of this data mining has provided an insight such that it changed what they did on a daily basis that wouldn't have otherwise been obvious from just being observant. All of this data might be good for gambling and predicting outcomes in Vegas, or to give talking points for sports radio, podcasts, and the growing onslaught of sports TV network (read: data for people not involved in the actual contests) but I don't really see a tremendous amount of value or influence in changing the outcome the data predicts. For example, does knowing that CoachMikeJudy 's team is scoring a point per play change anything? Does one need data mining to say "hey, we are better than this opponent, maybe we should try to run a little faster tempo and increase our opportunities to score, since we are better and therefore we have an advantage each play"? One of my favorite posts here came when we were talking about the ooh so sexy "explosive play" stats, and silkyice succinctly pointed out that one year belly and trap were "explosive plays" for him according to the data because the ballcarrier was headed to the Big 12 (I think) and the next year neither were "explosive plays" because the ball carrier was an average HS running back? He didn't need any data mining to figure that out. The offense and defense combined have one job, and that is to ensure that when the game is over, your team has scored more points than the opponent. The BEST way to do that, is to execute your assignment to the best of your ability, and (hopefully) that will be better than your opponent executes their assignment. I am just looking for someone to show me how all of these comparatives help a squad do that. The only use for COACHES that I can see is for resume building. For someone like Nick Aliotti be able to say "hey, I was the defensive coordinator at Oregon, and although we gave up ____ points, when you look at these circumstances, you can see the unit performed as well as these defenses that are considered "tops". So hire me" Metrics became big after the book and movie "Moneyball" came out. "Moneyball", though, was mainly about how a professional baseball team drafted players and how they made up their roster. How is that applicable to our situation? When I was always looking for a statistic that would help us win. As 5085 said, though, it didn't change anything that we did. Turnover ratio is certainly a huge predictor of a game's outcome but we already knew that. Our offense had always tried to eliminate them and our defense wanted to create them. "Explosive plays are important" isn't exactly front page news. Is knowing that going to change the way that you practice or game plan?
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Post by CoachMikeJudy on Nov 13, 2015 10:34:07 GMT -6
I think the points per drive say so much more than points per play and I'm pretty sure run based and control the clock type offenses agree. Scoring at 94pct at 94pct is huge though! Yeah. That was last year. This year has been really good too. We're averaging 53pts per game. We give up 15.
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Post by jgordon1 on Nov 13, 2015 10:43:59 GMT -6
@coach0508 Yes your Post exactly. We are HS coaches... we just lost a game 43-42 with a minute left..as a heartbreaking loss I have ever had. We played a great team that is like 24-1 over the past two years including playoffs..you can point to a number of plays saying if we did this or that but the bottom line, defensively, is that we made the same EXACT mistakes against this team as we made against others, but as I told my staff, these mistakes get magnified playing better teams. just a few weeks before we won in overtime but just one play different we would have been in the weeds too...interestingly, if we lost that game, IMO we would have had an easier route to the regional championship game. The team we are playing tonight played the toughest schedule in the state and they are GOOD. The bottom line is TAKE CARE OF YOUR OWN BUSINESS WHEN IT NEEDS TO BE TAKEN CARE OF
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Post by silkyice on Nov 13, 2015 10:53:28 GMT -6
Here is a stat that is actually useful. When we kickoff the other team averages returning it to the 40. When we onside kick, the other team averages starting at the 45. We average recovering 1 out of 4 onside kicks.
A reasonable person could deduce that we need to onside kick every time.
That is more baseball type stat.
The stat "we are good when we average 7.0 per play and we are bad when we average 4.0 per play" is true. But no crap and what are you going to do about! It isn't like you aren't already trying and practicing to get more yards on a play. It's not like you will have an epiphany and tell your running back, "Hey, I just realized something. This week, after you gain four yards, try and get three more."
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Post by coolhandluke on Nov 13, 2015 10:55:52 GMT -6
I used the information to help create a goal board that the players can focus on that provides a standard. We always had a goal board, but it used to be about total yards/points.So when the pace picked up, we still won games but were not meeting the old goals because we defended more plays.
Some of the other stuff in our analysis provided us with some information on preparation/gameplanning. Is it more important to be good on third down or in the Red Zone? How about limiting explosive plays vs creating turnovers? Yards/rush vs Yards/pass? This kind of stuff has helped us narrow our focus a little when creating a script.
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Post by joris85 on Nov 13, 2015 10:59:39 GMT -6
Points per drive tells you: - How many opportunities you need to score the points you scored. - How many opportunities you give your opponent to score points.
Let's use a few examples to illustrate what we're trying to say: Your team played Team A and won the game 21 to 17. Team A is a wishbone team and both of you got 6 drives in the game.
Your team played Team B and won the game 48 to 38. They are a HUNH TFS team and both of you got 15 drive in the game.
These are the efficiency ratings of the teams: Offense vs Team A: Scored 3.5 PPD (points per drive) Offense vs Team B: Scored 3.2 PPD
Defense vs Team A: Allowed 2.83 PPD Defense vs Team B: Allowed 2.53 PPD
The stats above show me that: The offense was more efficient vs Team A than vs team B (and thus performed better), while the score didn't reflect that. The defense was less efficient vs Team A than vs team B (and thus performed worse), while the score didn't reflect that.
We can all agree that this stat does not help to identify what to work on. All this does is showing me how efficient we are as a team, by including the number of drives, not just the final score.
We all know that setting goals is a good way to motivate players. I think setting the goal in "points per drive" as opposed to points or yards per game is a fair way to measure your success, as it will negate the effect of a hurry up offense type of situation. By using this stat, you can truly exclude the things you can't control (the game speed the opponent decides to play with) and focus on what you DO control, being how well you execute your offense or defense on each of those drives.
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Post by silkyice on Nov 13, 2015 11:02:38 GMT -6
I used the information to help create a goal board that the players can focus on that provides a standard. We always had a goal board, but it used to be about total yards/points.So when the pace picked up, we still won games but were not meeting the old goals because we defended more plays. I am being negative here. Sorry. But if you play a top 10 with a d1 RB and win 45-44, your defense doesn't reach its goal for the week. What does that mean? How does that help or hurt? Let's say you lose the game 44-45? Now your offense reaches goals and the defense doesn't. I certainly don't see how that helps, but definitely see how that can create tension among your staff and team. How?
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Post by coolhandluke on Nov 13, 2015 11:11:34 GMT -6
How is that different than the way it was 20 years ago when defenses measured success by total yards/points? You probably were not going to meet your goals that week as well. So I guess your solution is to not have goal boards because it creates tension between offense and defense.
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Post by silkyice on Nov 13, 2015 11:15:30 GMT -6
Some of the goals just strike me as a outfielder in baseball being happy because he went 2-4 with a double but his team lost 4-1.
I really do not understand the need for all the stat goals. I get goals of winning state or making the playoffs or increasing your bench 30 pounds or gaining 10 pounds. I just do not get the stat goals.
We can't stand individual players worrying about how touchdowns or touches or yards they get.
But dang it, aren't we as coaches doing the same narcissistic thing here? For what reason?
No problem with keeping stats or being proud of your accomplishments. I am not saying you shouldn't have them or that they are bad. I just don't get their value.
I have convinced my guys that stats don't matter and that college recruiters don't care. I have convinced them because it true. Sure don't want to then throw stats at them, even though they are team stats, and make them important. Just play to win.
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Post by silkyice on Nov 13, 2015 11:16:10 GMT -6
How is that different than the way it was 20 years ago when defenses measured success by total yards/points? You probably were not going to meet your goals that week as well. So I guess your solution is to not have goal boards because it creates tension between offense and defense. That is my solution.
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Post by fantom on Nov 13, 2015 11:17:31 GMT -6
How is that different than the way it was 20 years ago when defenses measured success by total yards/points? You probably were not going to meet your goals that week as well. So I guess your solution is to not have goal boards because it creates tension between offense and defense. We haven't done goal boards in years. We felt that they were a waste of time because they didn't change what we were going to do. As for the idea that they motivate the players, I never noticed a kid looking at the board after a win say, "Damn, we didn't hold them under 3.3 yards per rush".
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Post by silkyice on Nov 13, 2015 11:18:40 GMT -6
How is that different than the way it was 20 years ago when defenses measured success by total yards/points? You probably were not going to meet your goals that week as well. So I guess your solution is to not have goal boards because it creates tension between offense and defense. That is my solution. And I have no problem with anyone else doing it. It is your team.
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Post by coolhandluke on Nov 13, 2015 11:20:45 GMT -6
Completely agree. Winning is the first goal on the board and will always remain that way. We are trying to use the analysis to help us do more of it.
Nick Saban has defensive goals at Alabama, would you tell him that he is a fool for tracking these things? Good luck with that.
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Post by wingtol on Nov 13, 2015 11:21:38 GMT -6
There are 3 kinds of lies:lies, damned lies, and statistics.
No stat helps you win a game. Stats are created by your execution and adaptability from year to year knowing your kids.
This stuff is for all the talking heads who try and sound smarter than everyone and the coaches looking to impress people in interviews.
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Post by joris85 on Nov 13, 2015 11:24:30 GMT -6
I get that, very valid point silkyice. This stat does give me a better idea of how our team performed than the scoreline, which I find interesting. But you're right that it probably is a more useful stat to gamblers and talking heads than it is to football coaches, so I stand corrected :-)
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Post by fantom on Nov 13, 2015 11:28:28 GMT -6
Completely agree. Winning is the first goal on the board and will always remain that way. We are trying to use the analysis to help us do more of it. Nick Saban has defensive goals at Alabama, would you tell him that he is a fool for tracking these things? Good luck with that. You think that Nick puts that goals board together himself? If I had a GA maybe I'd have him do a goals board. I don't though so I have other priorities.
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Post by blb on Nov 13, 2015 11:31:42 GMT -6
How is that different than the way it was 20 years ago when defenses measured success by total yards/points? You probably were not going to meet your goals that week as well. So I guess your solution is to not have goal boards because it creates tension between offense and defense. We haven't done goal boards in years. We felt that they were a waste of time because they didn't change what we were going to do. As for the idea that they motivate the players, I never noticed a kid looking at the board after a win say, "Damn, we didn't hold them under 3.3 yards per rush".
Neither I nor I'm sure the players thought about statistical goals during a game.
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Post by soonerj355alan on Nov 13, 2015 12:02:00 GMT -6
Posted this in another thread a little while back but it is how we like to look at games to focus the kids on the important stuff: Turnovers, Explosive Plays, Costly Penalties
I have always looked at this for the entire team (offense, defense, and special teams):
If we have a positive number in this formula, we will win most of the time or at worst be in a position to win the game at some point.
Explosive plays Ratio (runs of 12+, passes of 16+, returns of 30+) + Turnover Ratio + Costly penalties Ratio (ended a drive/took points off the board, or continued an opponents drive)
So a game might go:
Us: 6 explosive plays, 1 turnover, 1 costly penalty Them: 2 explosive plays, 3 turnovers, 2 costly penalties
+4 Explosives + +2 Turnovers + +1 costly penalty = +7
When that number is positive we win like 95% of the time and the other 5% we had a chance to win at the end. There are always exceptions but this holds true almost all the time I find.
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Post by coachwilliams2 on Nov 13, 2015 12:14:45 GMT -6
coachwilliams2 That makes sense in theory, but I have to ask how different are your redzone plays than other plays. How different are most HS offenses when it comes to redzone than the rest of their offense. I can see working more 3rd downs than first downs, and emphasizing those plays a bit more. I guess I am asking "how big a playsheet do you need to have such that you can have distinct "redzone and 3rd down" choices Great question. For us, it because more of a focus point for our kids. On offense, we need to practice scoring TDs and those plays, but also they need to make sure we pay closer attention to ball security, snap count etc. Let's GET BETTER in the redzone. On defense, its not about calls necessarily as it is about, again a more intense focus. It also allows you to coach situations like Pass Interference on the fade ball. We will play more physical in the redzone with our DBs etc. Most OC's may not change their offense in the red zone, but MOST of them go to their favorite plays. Top 2/3 runs and passes. We want to make sure our kids see those in the red zone and have an idea what is coming at them.
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Post by coolhandluke on Nov 13, 2015 12:47:29 GMT -6
We haven't done goal boards in years. We felt that they were a waste of time because they didn't change what we were going to do. As for the idea that they motivate the players, I never noticed a kid looking at the board after a win say, "Damn, we didn't hold them under 3.3 yards per rush".
Neither I nor I'm sure the players thought about statistical goals during a game.
Where do you guys coach? I coach 6A Texas football. We hit BP with white baseballs down here.
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Post by fantom on Nov 13, 2015 12:55:04 GMT -6
Neither I nor I'm sure the players thought about statistical goals during a game.
Where do you guys coach? I coach 6A Texas football. We hit BP with white baseballs down here. Mother of God, we're not going to start that "I coach in Texas" stuff again? Believe it or not coaches in other states care about winning, work hard, and coach against good coaches and good players. Please stop if that's your best argument.
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Post by blb on Nov 13, 2015 12:56:24 GMT -6
Neither I nor I'm sure the players thought about statistical goals during a game.
Where do you guys coach? I coach 6A Texas football. We hit BP with white baseballs down here.
I coached in Michigan.
When I got my first HC job I did goal boards because I had previously coached in college, and that's what we did.
After a couple of years and losing a game with 400+ yards total offense, winning a game with four turnovers and others where we met half or less of our goals, I realized as fantom said they were a waste of time and had no bearing on our performance, much less whether we won or lost.
So I stopped doing them.
Rather what I did was talk to the Team about what we had to do to win. Besides specific things for a particular opponent, those five things were:
1. Be the better team mentally (Better prepared, fewer MAs, no foolish penalties)
2. Win the turnover battle
3. Win the Kicking Game
4. Win the critical situations (possession downs, GL, 2-minute)
5. Win the 4th Quarter (conditioning-mental toughness)
How do you do those things? Execution and effort.
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Post by coolhandluke on Nov 13, 2015 13:10:37 GMT -6
You guys are right, it does not matter where you coach. Good football is good football, and Texas does not have a monopoly on it. I apologize for that comment, I was wrong. We will just have to agree to disagree here on the statistical stuff. I do think agree that winning the kicking game is vitally important.
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