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Post by 33coach on Apr 28, 2013 9:34:53 GMT -6
Question I asked was "what is my teams ability to score is?" A few things that I wanted to know was what was the average yards to score (YTS) was for both teams. So if you take the actual starting field position of each drive that will give you total yards to score. So if the starting field position was the 50 yard line, you have to go 50 yards to score. Do that for every possession, add them up divide them by the total number of possessions you get the average for the game....do that for every game and you can get total for the season. Now I wanted to know how our yards per play (YPP) had a correlation to any of this. So, I took the teams Yards to Score (YTS), multiplied it by the teams Yards Per Play then divided it by Average yards to score for the game. This gives you a value like 41.3 or 56.7.....So if a drive that started inside that value I awarded it 6 points (TD), if you started outside the value then you get nothing!....lol So here is the formula ((yards to score)x(yards per play))/(average yards to score) = Team Scoring Ability It will tell you whether or not you'll outscore the other team based on numbers....there are exceptions to the rule in the form or missed EP's, Defensive TD's, Special team TD's...Also a turnover can have huge rippling effect on the game. A turnover adds an extra possession...and flip side, a loss of a possession. That has an impact on total possessions which will change the numbers. Now add in a field possession of the turn over and that will change the numbers...so on and so forth. You can put this in by using numbers of an overall team, or for an individual player thus measuring his scoring worth. I use it to see whether or not we should punt and what the upside of it is based on my defense's ability to make a stop....or if we are getting the average yards per play that we need to...or...or ..or...You get the point. Did you take FGs into account here, and if so were they given equal value to TDs or were they only given 3/7 of a point (or I guess 1/2 since you awarded 6 points)? That's a.good point. Ive been playing with that formula and so far (after 4 game films it was dead on...except missed PATs and FG) So kicker max distance and percentage should be added to that. Sent from my ADR6410LVW using proboards
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Post by Scott Bronkema on Apr 28, 2013 21:54:00 GMT -6
sabermetrics is a joke I think. They cannot assign a value to an rbi. Dude, Sabermatricians hate RBI because its a team stat not an individual stat. did no one read my post on this. I answered this board. Moneyball is a concept not a stat, stats don't tell the whole story, the Oakland A's take undervalued players and play them, unconventional things like in year 2000ish On Base Percentage (which is beat to death). Unconventional for football the forward pass, Zone read, West Coast when they all debuted now are commonplace. Coaching football is moneyball because you are taking undervalued players (HS players) and making them successful by out scheming out executing out whatever. The quote in the movie which was the real point of the book, If you play like the big boys you will lose. INNOVATE NOT RECREATE!
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Post by windigo on Apr 29, 2013 15:02:44 GMT -6
The key to remember with statistics is that its kind of like Schrodinger's cat. You cant look into the box. Once you do the experiment is broken. Once the undervalued statistic becomes valued it loses much of its predictive nature. This is what has been seen in baseball. Once those stats become valued players and teams start trying to maximize those stats. A new equilibrium is reached and the value of the stats change.
Stats can only be assigned a value in the present equilibrium. Once that equilibrium changes as a result of that value the value too will change.
The best stats are the ones that are the toughest to game. The most predictive team stat for collage ball is the cumulative starts by the offensive line. And it keeps its value because its not something that can be gamed. But at the same time that does us no good as we cant do anything about it the experience we have on the line is primarily chance.
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Post by mariner42 on Apr 29, 2013 18:28:38 GMT -6
sabermetrics is a joke I think. They cannot assign a value to an rbi. Dude, Sabermatricians hate RBI because its a team stat not an individual stat. did no one read my post on this. I answered this board. Moneyball is a concept not a stat, stats don't tell the whole story, the Oakland A's take undervalued players and play them, unconventional things like in year 2000ish On Base Percentage (which is beat to death). Unconventional for football the forward pass, Zone read, West Coast when they all debuted now are commonplace. Coaching football is moneyball because you are taking undervalued players (HS players) and making them successful by out scheming out executing out whatever. The quote in the movie which was the real point of the book, If you play like the big boys you will lose. INNOVATE NOT RECREATE! I can't remember which book it was, it think Outliers, but Malcolm Gladwell wrote about David vs Goliath scenarios and it basically boiled down to the idea that if David played by Goliath's rules, he got his butt kicked in every historical instance. When he played by his own rules, he often won against a categorically superior enemy. The A's approach was exactly this. They couldn't play the game the same way as the Yankees and when they did, they got beat. So, they started looking for a better way and 'Moneyball' was the result.
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pjdrews
Probationary Member
Posts: 13
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Post by pjdrews on Apr 30, 2013 5:29:42 GMT -6
To answer a few questions. First I did not add in field goals as a metric. Reason being is I wanted to keep it as an special team play, meaning that if you are good enough or have a good enough kicker field goals can change games. In high school they become much more important than in college because for the most part in college kickers can kick 35 yards and in pretty consistently.
Secondly I did this with one goal, how many TD's can our team score from a specific distance out. If we can start inside a specific yard line our percentage goes up, thus we have a better chance of scoring. Nothing is an absolute. It changes the field. If I know that I have to go 90 yards to score but the other team doesn't score very well from 60 yards out I just need to move the ball enough to punt them out of that zone. We always try to score TD's but field position and the master of it is really lost art...I am a Wisconsin guy and watched Barry Alverez play field position football for 20 years.
Lastly, Windingo is right. If everyone I have to play does this it changes the environment that where we are getting the data. basically it taints the water....
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Post by 33coach on Apr 30, 2013 23:23:40 GMT -6
I'm working on expanding the formula to.include special teams.
Sent from my ADR6410LVW using proboards
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